Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ, Pennsylvania: Bellwether metro. In 2024, voted R+5%. Republican peak: R+44 in 1928.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+5MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- BellwetherAkashic typology
- Population
- 873,6032024 5-year
- Median household income
- $85,1002024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 70.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 6.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 20.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+38 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+44 in 1928MIT Election Lab
Constituent county margins for Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ, PAOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
R+60D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 217,684 | 240,504 | 464,855 | ||
| R | 219,488 | 224,866 | 449,609 | ||
| R | 173,816 | 194,027 | 385,978 | ||
| D | 176,214 | 167,568 | 349,377 | ||
| D | 196,436 | 162,390 | 363,922 | ||
| R | 167,653 | 174,323 | 345,191 | ||
| D | 136,975 | 134,777 | 283,075 | ||
| D | 116,789 | 105,182 | 254,642 | ||
| D | 110,988 | 102,771 | 275,522 | ||
| R | 102,809 | 131,058 | 236,298 | ||
| R | 98,551 | 139,086 | 239,379 | ||
| R | 85,266 | 113,546 | 222,148 | ||
| D | 114,163 | 103,958 | 222,347 | ||
| R | 83,442 | 130,785 | 216,538 | ||
| D | 110,043 | 103,192 | 224,103 | ||
| D | 154,366 | 69,424 | 225,011 | ||
| R | 106,123 | 124,440 | 230,958 | ||
| R | 81,666 | 125,606 | 208,198 | ||
| R | 91,671 | 112,294 | 205,044 | ||
| R | 79,445 | 79,534 | 161,820 | ||
| D | 82,802 | 78,778 | 162,276 | ||
| D | 90,017 | 76,182 | 166,918 | ||
| D | 98,851 | 69,403 | 171,525 | ||
| D | 66,458 | 61,143 | 132,022 | ||
| R | 41,685 | 107,733 | 150,413 | ||
| R | 32,210 | 61,127 | 104,577 | ||
| R | 32,197 | 48,194 | 83,543 | ||
| D | 32,393 | 27,775 | 63,087 | ||
| D | 29,474 | 9,272 | 61,438 | ||
| D | 32,202 | 30,840 | 65,928 | ||
| R | 27,418 | 31,305 | 61,197 | ||
| D | 31,218 | 27,435 | 60,272 | ||
| D | 28,023 | 27,866 | 57,858 | ||
| D | 28,762 | 20,342 | 50,492 | ||
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Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
21.4%
Irish
11.9%
Italian
10.7%
English
6.5%
American
6.3%
Polish
4.3%
French
1.0%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 41.5 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$85,100
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ ranks near the middle of US counties.
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ$85,100
Pennsylvania$103,556
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
10.2%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 1814.7%
Working age (18–64)9.0%
Seniors (65+)9.3%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
80.7%
speak English only
Spanish13.2%
Other Indo-European3.4%
Asian & Pacific Islander1.3%
Other languages1.3%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 59.5% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Once reliably blue owing to its steel-and-manufacturing labor base, the Lehigh Valley has shifted markedly in recent cycles, with its large and growing Latino population now a closely watched variable in statewide Pennsylvania contests.
The Democratic margin in Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ has rarely exceeded thirty-eight points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded forty-four points. 2024 delivered the metro to the Republican candidate by five points.
Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most metros. A 71% non-Hispanic-white share, a 10% poverty rate, and a median household income of $85,100 — all within the broad national range.
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ, Pennsylvania — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/cbsa/10900/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ, Pennsylvania vote in 2024?
In 2024, Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ, Pennsylvania voted Republican by 4.9 points (R+5), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 464,855 votes cast, 217,684 went Democratic and 240,504 went Republican.
What is Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ, Pennsylvania's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ, Pennsylvania as a "Bellwether" metro based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the metro has voted Democratic 18 times, Republican 16 times, and other 0 times.
When did Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ, Pennsylvania last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ, Pennsylvania voted Democratic was 2012.
How many people live in Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ, Pennsylvania?
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ, Pennsylvania has a population of 873,603 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ, Pennsylvania?
Median household income in Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ, Pennsylvania is $85,100 — above the national median of $80,734. The Pennsylvania state median is $103,556.
What is the political history of Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ, Pennsylvania?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ, Pennsylvania from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 18 went Democratic and 16 went Republican. The metro's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.