akashic
1876–2024
Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY·New York

Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY votes the way the country votes.

Erie County's urban core where waterfront reinvention meets durable Democratic margins

1876 — 2024·38 elections
NY
Latest
D+5
in 2024
Archetype
Bellwether
since the recent cycles
Population
1,161,343
2024 ACS

Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY, New York: Bellwether metro. In 2024, voted D+5%. Democratic peak: D+45 in 1964.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
D+5MIT Election Lab
Political archetype
BellwetherAkashic typology
Population
1,161,3432024 5-year
Median household income
$72,2572024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
75.2%2024 5-year
Black
11.4%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
6.0%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+45 in 1964MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+39 in 1920MIT Election Lab
2024 results by constituent county
2 counties · 1 D · 1 R
R+60
D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
D
+5.1%
292,089263,452562,844
D
+10.3%
313,299253,620577,541
D
+2.1%
251,015240,264516,027
D
+13.6%
281,342212,915503,208
D
+14.6%
303,602225,163537,257
D
+12.4%
298,692231,534541,718
D
+16.8%
287,957201,128517,924
D
+21.0%
268,757163,781499,678
D
+13.1%
231,882159,845548,080
D
+9.9%
282,580231,333517,660
D
+0.9%
278,999274,171554,529
D
+9.4%
255,688207,969506,867
D
+1.2%
273,064266,411543,082
R
−9.5%
257,096311,239570,114
D
+15.8%
292,053206,649541,090
D
+45.4%
412,170154,625567,561
D
+11.3%
328,883261,958591,329
R
−28.6%
197,091355,090552,181
R
−14.0%
232,882308,770542,748
D
+4.6%
231,737210,976455,591
D
+1.6%
230,755223,589455,901
D
+0.6%
222,986220,393444,536
D
+7.5%
212,762182,456403,623
R
−6.0%
151,777171,911335,821
R
−10.4%
143,330177,955334,242
R
−38.8%
48,773137,944229,542
R
−38.7%
47,852120,955188,828
R
−9.6%
53,98965,850123,684
D
+15.7%
41,16524,839103,921
R
−8.0%
53,75963,327120,016
R
−15.2%
44,13260,550108,287
R
−6.3%
47,55954,119104,258
R
−18.9%
36,61354,23893,369
D
+0.3%
39,28139,00382,940
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Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
21.2%
Irish
15.5%
Italian
14.7%
Polish
13.7%
English
8.0%
American
3.1%
French
1.8%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 40.9 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.8%
85+
1.6%
2.4%
75–84
3.2%
5.4%
65–74
6.1%
6.8%
55–64
7.3%
5.7%
45–54
5.8%
6.2%
35–44
6.3%
6.8%
25–34
6.8%
4.4%
18–24
4.4%
7.6%
5–17
7.3%
2.7%
<5
2.6%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$72,257
Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY ranks near the middle of US counties.
Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY$72,257
New York$85,974
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
13.8%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1818.7%
Working age (18–64)12.7%
Seniors (65+)11.2%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
89.7%
speak English only
Other Indo-European3.9%
Spanish3.0%
Asian & Pacific Islander1.6%
Other languages1.6%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
43.7%
Other Christian
5.5%
Mainline Protestant
4.2%
Non-Christian
3.8%
Baptist
3.0%
Pentecostal & Holiness
2.2%
Methodist
1.9%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 35.7% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Buffalo anchors a mid-size metro that has voted Democratic in presidential races by double digits for decades, even as surrounding Erie County suburbs shift enough to keep county-level margins competitive in off-cycle contests.

The Democratic margin in Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY has rarely exceeded forty-five points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded thirty-nine points. 2024 delivered the metro to the Democratic candidate by five points.

Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most metros. A 75% non-Hispanic-white share, a 14% poverty rate, and a median household income of $72,257 — all within the broad national range.

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY, New York — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/cbsa/15380/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY, New York vote in 2024?
In 2024, Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY, New York voted Democratic by 5.1 points (D+5), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 562,844 votes cast, 292,089 went Democratic and 263,452 went Republican.
What is Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY, New York's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY, New York as a "Bellwether" metro based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the metro has voted Democratic 22 times, Republican 12 times, and other 0 times.
When did Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY, New York last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY, New York voted Republican was 1972.
How many people live in Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY, New York?
Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY, New York has a population of 1,161,343 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY, New York?
Median household income in Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY, New York is $72,257 — below the national median of $80,734. The New York state median is $85,974.
What is the political history of Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY, New York?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY, New York from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 22 went Democratic and 12 went Republican. The metro's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.