Fresno, CA, California: Bellwether metro. In 2024, voted R+7%. Democratic peak: D+56 in 1936.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+7MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- BellwetherAkashic typology
- Population
- 1,177,6652024 5-year
- Median household income
- $74,5332024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 35.8%2024 5-year
- Black
- 4.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 55.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+56 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+31 in 1924MIT Election Lab
Constituent county margins for Fresno, CA, CAOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
R+60D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 172,609 | 198,268 | 380,626 | ||
| D | 216,193 | 193,842 | 418,649 | ||
| D | 158,370 | 147,406 | 330,569 | ||
| R | 145,147 | 147,342 | 299,630 | ||
| D | 154,658 | 154,598 | 315,926 | ||
| R | 116,635 | 166,859 | 286,313 | ||
| R | 106,709 | 137,625 | 254,230 | ||
| R | 105,702 | 115,323 | 239,055 | ||
| D | 103,281 | 102,203 | 249,406 | ||
| R | 103,277 | 108,090 | 214,151 | ||
| R | 95,309 | 118,711 | 216,177 | ||
| R | 73,037 | 93,114 | 181,166 | ||
| D | 82,583 | 79,377 | 165,697 | ||
| R | 79,262 | 86,886 | 171,611 | ||
| D | 72,085 | 66,130 | 151,699 | ||
| D | 98,766 | 51,253 | 150,170 | ||
| D | 80,290 | 63,799 | 144,759 | ||
| D | 74,396 | 56,850 | 131,554 | ||
| D | 60,583 | 57,958 | 119,467 | ||
| D | 52,988 | 33,795 | 90,647 | ||
| D | 45,045 | 25,533 | 71,052 | ||
| D | 54,615 | 23,732 | 79,253 | ||
| D | 47,505 | 12,932 | 61,260 | ||
| D | 35,985 | 13,377 | 51,465 | ||
| R | 18,780 | 23,041 | 42,387 | ||
| R | 5,060 | 17,153 | 39,085 | ||
| R | 10,758 | 16,400 | 29,621 | ||
| D | 16,121 | 13,030 | 31,989 | ||
| O | 10,045 | 0 | 23,115 | ||
| R | 5,317 | 6,980 | 13,874 | ||
| R | 3,425 | 5,713 | 10,348 | ||
| R | 4,327 | 4,349 | 9,114 | ||
| D | 4,529 | 3,138 | 7,890 | ||
| D | 3,453 | 3 | 8,153 | ||
| D | 2,822 | 2,461 | 5,492 | ||
| D | 1,704 | 1,314 | 3,137 | ||
| D | 1,133 | 613 | 1,754 | ||
| D | 968 | 338 | 1,306 |
Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
6.5%
English
4.8%
Irish
4.6%
Italian
2.4%
American
1.6%
Scottish
0.9%
French
0.8%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 33.7 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$74,533
Fresno, CA ranks near the middle of US counties.
Fresno, CA$74,533
California$99,122
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
18.4%
Children face higher poverty than working-age adults.
Children under 1825.2%
Working age (18–64)15.9%
Seniors (65+)14.6%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
56.0%
speak English only
Spanish34.6%
Asian & Pacific Islander5.1%
Other Indo-European3.4%
Other languages0.9%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 56.9% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Fresno's San Joaquin Valley core has trended more competitive in recent cycles, driven by a growing Latino majority and an agricultural economy that shapes voter priorities around water rights, labor, and land use.
The Democratic margin in Fresno, CA has rarely exceeded fifty-six points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded thirty-one points. 2024 delivered the metro to the Republican candidate by seven points.
Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most metros. A 36% non-Hispanic-white share, a 18% poverty rate, and a median household income of $74,533 — all within the broad national range.
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Fresno, CA, California — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/cbsa/23420/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did Fresno, CA, California vote in 2024?
In 2024, Fresno, CA, California voted Republican by 6.7 points (R+7), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 380,626 votes cast, 172,609 went Democratic and 198,268 went Republican.
What is Fresno, CA, California's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Fresno, CA, California as a "Bellwether" metro based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the metro has voted Democratic 22 times, Republican 15 times, and other 1 times.
When did Fresno, CA, California last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Fresno, CA, California voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Fresno, CA, California?
Fresno, CA, California has a population of 1,177,665 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Fresno, CA, California?
Median household income in Fresno, CA, California is $74,533 — below the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of Fresno, CA, California?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Fresno, CA, California from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 22 went Democratic and 15 went Republican. The metro's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.