akashic
1876–2024
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA·Pennsylvania

Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA votes the way the country votes.

State capital anchors a metro split between government workers and rural exurbs

1876 — 2024·38 elections
PA
Latest
R+5
in 2024
Archetype
Bellwether
since the recent cycles
Population
604,155
2024 ACS

Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania: Bellwether metro. In 2024, voted R+5%. Republican peak: R+64 in 1928.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
R+5MIT Election Lab
Political archetype
BellwetherAkashic typology
Population
604,1552024 5-year
Median household income
$81,4842024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
73.9%2024 5-year
Black
10.3%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
8.1%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+11 in 1912MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+64 in 1928MIT Election Lab
2024 results by constituent county
3 counties · 1 D · 2 R
R+60
D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
R
−5.5%
150,967168,814324,968
R
−4.7%
147,178161,913313,615
R
−10.5%
116,423145,555276,640
R
−8.0%
115,017135,379254,707
R
−3.9%
124,677135,035262,578
R
−19.5%
98,650146,863246,717
R
−19.4%
79,902119,617204,881
R
−11.9%
74,29696,516186,471
R
−14.6%
67,71196,797198,810
R
−24.3%
63,602104,754169,643
R
−31.4%
58,642112,977172,894
R
−26.9%
50,72293,217158,246
R
−20.2%
61,95594,223159,712
R
−43.9%
39,880104,488147,070
R
−30.2%
43,89187,957146,109
D
+4.6%
78,80671,767151,408
R
−32.7%
53,343105,496159,486
R
−35.7%
46,45398,321145,327
R
−32.2%
46,78991,420138,603
R
−25.3%
41,74670,333113,121
R
−19.4%
46,01768,229114,756
R
−4.0%
58,66463,568122,594
D
+5.9%
67,88660,269129,119
R
−16.5%
38,23153,77894,172
R
−64.1%
16,11174,74791,498
R
−33.9%
19,35742,21967,352
R
−28.6%
20,75938,46061,842
R
−3.5%
20,26321,82544,085
O
+11.1%
14,4349,71842,386
R
−23.7%
15,13325,16742,421
R
−36.4%
12,17227,07940,968
R
−20.9%
15,25823,66040,157
R
−25.5%
14,26324,46740,061
R
−8.4%
15,67118,65035,393
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Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
25.7%
Irish
11.9%
English
8.2%
Italian
6.4%
American
5.4%
Polish
2.9%
Scottish
1.8%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 40.1 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.7%
85+
1.6%
2.5%
75–84
2.9%
5.1%
65–74
5.8%
6.3%
55–64
6.6%
6.1%
45–54
5.9%
6.6%
35–44
6.4%
6.6%
25–34
6.5%
4.4%
18–24
4.4%
8.1%
5–17
7.7%
2.8%
<5
2.7%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$81,484
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA ranks near the middle of US counties.
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA$81,484
Pennsylvania$77,971
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
10.1%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 1813.0%
Working age (18–64)9.2%
Seniors (65+)9.7%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
87.8%
speak English only
Other Indo-European4.8%
Spanish4.5%
Asian & Pacific Islander2.0%
Other languages0.9%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
13.6%
Other Christian
9.0%
Mainline Protestant
7.3%
Methodist
6.0%
Pentecostal & Holiness
2.4%
Non-Christian
2.4%
Baptist
1.6%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 57.7% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Harrisburg's concentration of state employees and Dauphin County's suburban precincts pull the metro toward competitive margins, while Cumberland County's faster-growing exurbs have trended reliably Republican in recent cycles by double digits.

The Democratic margin in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA has rarely exceeded eleven points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded sixty-four points. 2024 delivered the metro to the Republican candidate by five points.

Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most metros. A 74% non-Hispanic-white share, a 10% poverty rate, and a median household income of $81,484 — all within the broad national range.

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/cbsa/25420/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania vote in 2024?
In 2024, Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania voted Republican by 5.5 points (R+5), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 324,968 votes cast, 150,967 went Democratic and 168,814 went Republican.
What is Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania as a "Bellwether" metro based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the metro has voted Democratic 2 times, Republican 31 times, and other 1 times.
When did Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania voted Democratic was 1964.
How many people live in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania?
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania has a population of 604,155 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania?
Median household income in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania is $81,484 — above the national median of $80,734. The Pennsylvania state median is $77,971.
What is the political history of Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 2 went Democratic and 31 went Republican. The metro's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.