akashic
1876–2024
Harrisonburg, VA·Virginia

Harrisonburg, VA delivered R+21 in 2024.

A college-anchored metro where student enrollment shapes turnout math

1876 — 2024·38 elections
VA
Latest
R+21
in 2024
Archetype
Bellwether
since the recent cycles
Population
136,992
2024 ACS

Harrisonburg, VA, Virginia: Bellwether metro. In 2024, voted R+21%. Republican peak: R+56 in 1972.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
R+21MIT Election Lab
Political archetype
BellwetherAkashic typology
Population
136,9922024 5-year
Median household income
$73,7762024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
77.8%2024 5-year
Black
4.4%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
14.7%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+26 in 1912MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+56 in 1972MIT Election Lab
2024 results by constituent county
2 counties · 1 D · 1 R
R+60
D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
R
−20.6%
25,67639,29966,185
R
−20.2%
23,66635,94060,897
R
−22.8%
19,57832,25255,474
R
−23.8%
18,71930,75150,459
R
−20.0%
18,89728,51648,009
R
−39.5%
11,99927,90240,246
R
−41.0%
9,31623,22333,952
R
−31.9%
9,21318,98030,644
R
−29.3%
8,82117,95131,125
R
−41.8%
7,51518,61726,529
R
−47.5%
6,60418,70125,468
R
−32.1%
7,19014,78523,655
R
−28.3%
7,15213,14421,147
R
−55.9%
5,84221,41727,839
R
−46.6%
3,14710,63816,067
D
+6.9%
22,35019,44541,824
R
−41.9%
2,8627,0019,887
R
−49.5%
2,1766,5898,920
R
−49.4%
2,2266,5888,826
R
−28.7%
2,4314,5967,534
R
−19.2%
3,3965,0168,441
D
+1.4%
4,0313,9228,025
D
+7.1%
4,3063,7288,091
D
+13.0%
3,7452,8596,799
R
−41.3%
2,0184,8596,877
D
+0.9%
2,6642,6135,402
R
−8.6%
2,6623,1685,895
D
+9.6%
1,9961,6413,682
D
+25.8%
1,7619373,191
D
+4.6%
1,7361,5803,427
D
+5.2%
1,6041,4413,136
D
+5.1%
2,8522,5725,527
R
−7.9%
2,9983,5246,649
D
+9.1%
3,2932,7246,236
—
No data
———
—
No data
———
—
No data
———
—
No data
———

Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
18.6%
English
11.3%
Irish
8.2%
American
6.2%
Italian
3.5%
Scottish
1.9%
French
0.7%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 34.4 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.6%
85+
1.1%
2.3%
75–84
2.9%
4.4%
65–74
5.0%
5.6%
55–64
5.4%
5.4%
45–54
5.0%
5.7%
35–44
6.1%
6.0%
25–34
5.7%
8.3%
18–24
9.7%
7.6%
5–17
7.2%
3.0%
<5
2.5%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$73,776
Harrisonburg, VA ranks near the middle of US counties.
Harrisonburg, VA$73,776
Virginia$93,170
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
15.8%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1815.1%
Working age (18–64)16.4%
Seniors (65+)8.6%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
83.0%
speak English only
Spanish11.8%
Other Indo-European3.0%
Other languages1.4%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.8%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Other Christian
16.2%
Mainline Protestant
14.1%
Methodist
7.7%
Pentecostal & Holiness
4.4%
Catholic & Orthodox
4.3%
Baptist
2.3%
Non-Christian
2.1%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 49.0% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Home to James Madison University, Harrisonburg's electorate skews younger than surrounding Shenandoah Valley counties, and shifting student registration rates have repeatedly altered competitive margins in statewide races.

The Democratic margin in Harrisonburg, VA has rarely exceeded twenty-six points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded fifty-six points. 2024 delivered the metro to the Republican candidate by twenty-one points.

Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most metros. A 78% non-Hispanic-white share, a 16% poverty rate, and a median household income of $73,776 — all within the broad national range.

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Harrisonburg, VA, Virginia — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/cbsa/25500/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Harrisonburg, VA, Virginia vote in 2024?
In 2024, Harrisonburg, VA, Virginia voted Republican by 20.6 points (R+21), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 66,185 votes cast, 25,676 went Democratic and 39,299 went Republican.
What is Harrisonburg, VA, Virginia's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Harrisonburg, VA, Virginia as a "Bellwether" metro based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the metro has voted Democratic 11 times, Republican 23 times, and other 0 times.
When did Harrisonburg, VA, Virginia last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Harrisonburg, VA, Virginia voted Democratic was 1964.
How many people live in Harrisonburg, VA, Virginia?
Harrisonburg, VA, Virginia has a population of 136,992 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Harrisonburg, VA, Virginia?
Median household income in Harrisonburg, VA, Virginia is $73,776 — below the national median of $80,734. The Virginia state median is $93,170.
What is the political history of Harrisonburg, VA, Virginia?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Harrisonburg, VA, Virginia from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 11 went Democratic and 23 went Republican. The metro's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.