McMinnville, TN, Tennessee: Realigner metro. In 2024, voted R+56%. Democratic peak: D+69 in 1932.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+56MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- RealignerAkashic typology
- Population
- 42,1662024 5-year
- Median household income
- $55,4872024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 85.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 10.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+69 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+56 in 2024MIT Election Lab
Constituent county margins for McMinnville, TN, TNOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
R+60D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 3,647 | 13,192 | 17,050 | ||
| R | 3,924 | 11,850 | 16,009 | ||
| R | 3,535 | 9,540 | 13,612 | ||
| R | 4,752 | 8,010 | 13,015 | ||
| R | 5,515 | 8,562 | 14,400 | ||
| R | 6,808 | 7,503 | 14,400 | ||
| D | 7,378 | 5,552 | 13,131 | ||
| D | 6,389 | 4,226 | 11,633 | ||
| D | 7,189 | 3,704 | 12,355 | ||
| D | 4,646 | 4,529 | 9,218 | ||
| D | 4,813 | 4,811 | 9,691 | ||
| D | 6,021 | 3,680 | 9,904 | ||
| D | 6,666 | 2,364 | 9,115 | ||
| R | 2,118 | 3,565 | 5,894 | ||
| O | 2,046 | 1,858 | 7,718 | ||
| D | 5,027 | 1,754 | 6,781 | ||
| D | 3,119 | 2,682 | 5,841 | ||
| D | 4,014 | 1,954 | 5,998 | ||
| D | 3,568 | 1,912 | 5,513 | ||
| D | 2,969 | 807 | 4,464 | ||
| D | 2,560 | 848 | 3,429 | ||
| D | 2,323 | 546 | 2,887 | ||
| D | 2,304 | 553 | 2,870 | ||
| D | 2,325 | 410 | 2,765 | ||
| D | 1,111 | 923 | 2,043 | ||
| D | 1,356 | 490 | 1,874 | ||
| D | 1,986 | 1,010 | 3,012 | ||
| D | 1,855 | 624 | 2,498 | ||
| D | 1,745 | 339 | 2,350 | ||
| D | 1,573 | 729 | 2,330 | ||
| D | 1,815 | 707 | 2,599 | ||
| D | 1,926 | 672 | 2,598 | ||
| D | 2,101 | 842 | 3,003 | ||
| D | 1,568 | 633 | 2,614 | ||
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Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
American
18.0%
English
15.3%
Irish
8.5%
German
5.9%
Scottish
2.0%
Italian
1.4%
French
1.0%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 39.8 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$55,487
McMinnville, TN ranks near the middle of US counties.
McMinnville, TN$55,487
Tennessee$69,595
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
15.7%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1820.4%
Working age (18–64)14.4%
Seniors (65+)12.9%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
92.7%
speak English only
Spanish6.0%
Other Indo-European1.1%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.1%
Other languages0.1%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 49.2% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
McMinnville anchors Warren County, a persistently Republican-leaning corner of the Cumberland Plateau where voter registration has trended increasingly toward the GOP over the past decade, even as light industrial growth draws a modestly younger workforce.
The unraveling was not abrupt. The Democratic margin in McMinnville, TN peaked at sixty-nine points in 1932; it narrowed steadily over the late twentieth century. The 2004 election delivered the metro to the Republican party for the first time in many years, by a margin of five points. By 2024, the margin had widened further.
The economic and demographic context is severe. The median household income of $55,487 is among the lowest at this geographic scale; 16% of residents live below the federal poverty line.
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
McMinnville, TN, Tennessee — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/cbsa/32660/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did McMinnville, TN, Tennessee vote in 2024?
In 2024, McMinnville, TN, Tennessee voted Republican by 56.0 points (R+56), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 17,050 votes cast, 3,647 went Democratic and 13,192 went Republican.
What is McMinnville, TN, Tennessee's political archetype?
Akashic classifies McMinnville, TN, Tennessee as a "Realigner" metro based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the metro has voted Democratic 26 times, Republican 7 times, and other 1 times.
When did McMinnville, TN, Tennessee last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which McMinnville, TN, Tennessee voted Democratic was 2000.
How many people live in McMinnville, TN, Tennessee?
McMinnville, TN, Tennessee has a population of 42,166 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in McMinnville, TN, Tennessee?
Median household income in McMinnville, TN, Tennessee is $55,487 — below the national median of $80,734. The Tennessee state median is $69,595.
What is the political history of McMinnville, TN, Tennessee?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in McMinnville, TN, Tennessee from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 26 went Democratic and 7 went Republican. The metro's archetype — "Realigner" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.