akashic
1876–2024
Merced, CA·California

Merced, CA delivered R+4 in 2024 — close enough to flip again next time.

A Central Valley metro where Latino majority growth is reshaping the electorate

1876 — 2024·38 elections
CA
Latest
R+4
in 2024
Archetype
Tossup
since the recent cycles
Population
290,201
2024 ACS

Merced, CA, California: Tossup metro. In 2024, voted R+4%. Democratic peak: D+47 in 1936.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
R+4MIT Election Lab
Political archetype
TossupAkashic typology
Population
290,2012024 5-year
Median household income
$65,5102024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
31.5%2024 5-year
Black
2.8%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
63.4%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+47 in 1912MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+42 in 1924MIT Election Lab
2024 results by constituent county
1 counties · 0 D · 1 R
R+60
D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
R
−4.3%
40,19043,95586,684
D
+10.5%
48,99139,39790,993
D
+12.1%
37,31728,72571,127
D
+8.7%
33,00527,58162,222
D
+8.3%
34,03128,70464,051
R
−14.3%
24,49132,77357,960
R
−6.7%
22,72626,10250,418
D
+2.0%
21,78620,84746,938
D
+4.4%
20,13317,98149,284
R
−3.8%
20,10521,71742,414
R
−18.8%
17,01224,99742,477
R
−5.8%
15,88618,04336,996
D
+5.6%
16,63714,84232,208
R
−11.7%
13,91417,73732,648
D
+10.1%
14,45311,59528,349
D
+37.6%
19,4318,81428,269
D
+12.9%
15,54511,99027,646
D
+7.8%
13,36611,43024,852
R
−6.3%
11,31612,86524,395
D
+12.3%
9,9597,72118,124
D
+16.9%
9,1926,51815,779
D
+26.2%
10,5016,10116,784
D
+47.2%
9,2083,23012,668
D
+39.9%
7,2022,92010,734
R
−21.7%
2,9704,6447,718
R
−42.4%
7103,5736,749
R
−35.0%
1,5373,4575,488
D
+9.6%
2,6372,1325,236
O
+46.8%
1,97804,228
R
−0.3%
1,1001,1072,483
R
−5.5%
8639721,981
D
+13.8%
1,0818111,950
D
+25.7%
1,1176531,802
D
+10.8%
9957821,972
D
+11.1%
9727731,796
D
+8.1%
9538091,779
D
+17.5%
7365161,256
D
+18.1%
8045581,362

Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
4.3%
Irish
3.3%
English
3.3%
Italian
1.8%
American
1.7%
French
0.8%
Scottish
0.6%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 31.8 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.4%
85+
0.8%
1.6%
75–84
1.8%
3.4%
65–74
3.7%
5.0%
55–64
5.0%
5.4%
45–54
5.4%
6.7%
35–44
6.3%
7.5%
25–34
7.0%
5.8%
18–24
5.5%
11.2%
5–17
10.5%
3.6%
<5
3.4%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$65,510
Merced, CA ranks near the middle of US counties.
Merced, CA$65,510
California$99,122
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
19.1%
Children face higher poverty than working-age adults.
Children under 1826.5%
Working age (18–64)16.1%
Seniors (65+)16.0%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
47.3%
speak English only
Spanish44.2%
Other Indo-European4.8%
Asian & Pacific Islander3.3%
Other languages0.3%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
33.9%
Other Christian
6.7%
Pentecostal & Holiness
1.7%
Baptist
1.4%
Mainline Protestant
0.6%
Methodist
0.5%
Non-Christian
0.3%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 54.9% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Merced's population is majority Latino and among the youngest in California, with UC Merced's expansion adding a growing student demographic that analysts watch as a bellwether for inland Valley turnout trends.

The metro's recent history is a story of close margins. The Democratic margin reached forty-seven points in 1936; the Republican margin reached forty-two points in 1924. Most other elections have been decided by single-digit points.

Its demographics — a population of 290,201, a 32% non-Hispanic-white share, a median household income of $65,510 — situate the metro close to national averages on several dimensions.

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Merced, CA, California — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/cbsa/32900/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Merced, CA, California vote in 2024?
In 2024, Merced, CA, California voted Republican by 4.3 points (R+4), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 86,684 votes cast, 40,190 went Democratic and 43,955 went Republican.
What is Merced, CA, California's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Merced, CA, California as a "Tossup" metro based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the metro has voted Democratic 24 times, Republican 13 times, and other 1 times.
When did Merced, CA, California last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Merced, CA, California voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Merced, CA, California?
Merced, CA, California has a population of 290,201 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Merced, CA, California?
Median household income in Merced, CA, California is $65,510 — below the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of Merced, CA, California?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Merced, CA, California from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 24 went Democratic and 13 went Republican. The metro's archetype — "Tossup" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.