akashic
1876–2024
Modesto, CA·California

Modesto, CA delivered R+11 in 2024.

Central Valley's bellwether corridor where farm economy meets suburban growth

1876 — 2024·38 elections
CA
Latest
R+11
in 2024
Archetype
Bellwether
since the recent cycles
Population
553,990
2024 ACS

Modesto, CA, California: Bellwether metro. In 2024, voted R+11%. Republican peak: R+47 in 1924.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
R+11MIT Election Lab
Political archetype
BellwetherAkashic typology
Population
553,9902024 5-year
Median household income
$81,4682024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
42.8%2024 5-year
Black
2.7%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
50.0%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+40 in 1912MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+47 in 1924MIT Election Lab
2024 results by constituent county
1 counties · 0 D · 1 R
R+60
D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
R
−10.9%
85,347106,986198,558
D
+0.8%
105,841104,145215,987
D
+1.8%
81,64778,494174,406
D
+2.7%
77,72473,459155,816
D
+1.7%
80,27977,497161,512
R
−18.3%
58,82985,407145,624
R
−8.4%
56,44867,188128,267
D
+1.1%
53,73852,403117,007
D
+4.0%
52,41547,275128,005
R
−7.2%
44,68551,64897,315
R
−19.4%
37,45955,66593,985
R
−9.4%
33,68341,59584,186
D
+7.5%
38,44832,93773,465
R
−5.9%
35,00539,52176,867
D
+2.7%
31,31629,57365,063
D
+32.4%
43,07821,97365,128
D
+0.1%
30,30230,21360,890
D
+2.4%
28,04026,69554,927
R
−11.4%
22,27128,09050,913
R
−0.6%
18,35018,56438,371
D
+4.1%
15,53714,29730,271
D
+5.3%
16,49414,80331,746
D
+27.7%
15,3418,61324,302
D
+22.4%
12,3367,61421,042
R
−35.5%
5,06310,75316,019
R
−47.3%
1,2747,56913,312
R
−34.9%
3,0557,03811,423
D
+9.3%
5,4904,40111,687
O
+39.6%
3,12707,900
R
−7.6%
1,3901,6633,580
R
−11.9%
1,1101,4372,743
D
+8.8%
1,2701,0582,415
D
+15.9%
1,3981,0072,461
D
+14.8%
1,3699922,550
D
+17.8%
1,3159032,314
D
+18.0%
1,4249792,479
D
+21.4%
1,1617521,913
D
+15.6%
1,0978011,898

Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
6.7%
Irish
6.0%
English
6.0%
Italian
3.0%
American
2.1%
French
1.1%
Scottish
1.1%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 34.9 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.7%
85+
1.1%
1.7%
75–84
2.2%
3.8%
65–74
4.4%
5.4%
55–64
5.6%
5.9%
45–54
5.7%
6.8%
35–44
6.6%
7.2%
25–34
7.0%
4.8%
18–24
4.6%
10.2%
5–17
9.7%
3.4%
<5
3.3%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$81,468
Modesto, CA ranks near the middle of US counties.
Modesto, CA$81,468
California$99,122
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
13.5%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1817.4%
Working age (18–64)11.8%
Seniors (65+)15.9%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
57.0%
speak English only
Spanish34.1%
Other Indo-European4.6%
Asian & Pacific Islander2.6%
Other languages1.7%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
21.1%
Other Christian
10.0%
Pentecostal & Holiness
3.6%
Baptist
1.8%
Non-Christian
0.9%
Mainline Protestant
0.8%
Methodist
0.6%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 61.2% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

The Modesto metro sits at the heart of California's San Joaquin Valley, where agricultural employment and a rapidly diversifying suburban population have produced competitive margins in statewide contests that often track national mood swings.

The Democratic margin in Modesto, CA has rarely exceeded forty points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded forty-seven points. 2024 delivered the metro to the Republican candidate by eleven points.

Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most metros. A 43% non-Hispanic-white share, a 14% poverty rate, and a median household income of $81,468 — all within the broad national range.

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Modesto, CA, California — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/cbsa/33700/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Modesto, CA, California vote in 2024?
In 2024, Modesto, CA, California voted Republican by 10.9 points (R+11), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 198,558 votes cast, 85,347 went Democratic and 106,986 went Republican.
What is Modesto, CA, California's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Modesto, CA, California as a "Bellwether" metro based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the metro has voted Democratic 23 times, Republican 14 times, and other 1 times.
When did Modesto, CA, California last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Modesto, CA, California voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Modesto, CA, California?
Modesto, CA, California has a population of 553,990 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Modesto, CA, California?
Median household income in Modesto, CA, California is $81,468 — above the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of Modesto, CA, California?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Modesto, CA, California from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 23 went Democratic and 14 went Republican. The metro's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.