Nogales, AZ, Arizona: Populist metro. In 2024, voted D+19%. Democratic peak: D+47 in 2016.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+19MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- PopulistAkashic typology
- Population
- 48,9262024 5-year
- Median household income
- $55,2172024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 28.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 82.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+47 in 2016MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+22 in 1984MIT Election Lab
Constituent county margins for Nogales, AZ, AZOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
R+60D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 11,265 | 7,699 | 19,167 | ||
| D | 13,138 | 6,194 | 19,581 | ||
| D | 11,690 | 3,897 | 16,433 | ||
| D | 9,486 | 4,235 | 13,911 | ||
| D | 8,683 | 4,518 | 13,303 | ||
| D | 6,909 | 4,668 | 11,689 | ||
| D | 5,233 | 3,344 | 8,893 | ||
| D | 5,241 | 2,256 | 8,167 | ||
| D | 3,512 | 3,024 | 8,080 | ||
| R | 3,268 | 3,320 | 6,690 | ||
| R | 2,463 | 3,855 | 6,389 | ||
| R | 2,089 | 2,674 | 5,340 | ||
| R | 2,265 | 2,312 | 4,738 | ||
| R | 1,866 | 2,137 | 4,079 | ||
| R | 1,557 | 1,702 | 3,533 | ||
| D | 1,955 | 1,503 | 3,460 | ||
| D | 1,868 | 1,265 | 3,135 | ||
| R | 1,131 | 1,646 | 2,778 | ||
| R | 1,365 | 1,716 | 3,081 | ||
| D | 1,424 | 1,058 | 2,519 | ||
| D | 1,291 | 727 | 2,022 | ||
| D | 1,536 | 978 | 2,516 | ||
| D | 1,729 | 742 | 2,530 | ||
| D | 1,606 | 625 | 2,260 | ||
| D | 962 | 919 | 1,884 | ||
| D | 673 | 579 | 1,450 | ||
| R | 706 | 850 | 1,556 | ||
| D | 726 | 666 | 1,442 | ||
| D | 250 | 56 | 469 | ||
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Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
3.8%
English
2.8%
Irish
2.5%
Italian
1.5%
American
1.3%
French
0.7%
Polish
0.6%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 37.9 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$55,217
Nogales, AZ ranks near the middle of US counties.
Nogales, AZ$55,217
Arizona$79,964
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
20.2%
Children face higher poverty than working-age adults.
Children under 1827.2%
Working age (18–64)17.7%
Seniors (65+)18.5%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
22.3%
speak English only
Spanish77.1%
Other Indo-European0.3%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.2%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 11.8% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Nogales anchors one of the busiest land ports of entry on the U.S.-Mexico border, and its heavily Latino electorate — over 95% Hispanic by census estimates — produces some of Arizona's most lopsided Democratic margins in federal races.
The Democratic margin in Nogales, AZ peaked at forty-seven points in 2016. By 1992 the metro had flipped, voting Republican for the first time in many years. The 2024 margin was nineteen points, the most Democratic-leaning result in the metro's modern history.
The economic context is the key. The median household income of $55,217 sits well below state and national norms, and 20% of residents live below the federal poverty line. The shift here is part of a broader realignment of working-class places across the country.
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Nogales, AZ, Arizona — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/cbsa/35700/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did Nogales, AZ, Arizona vote in 2024?
In 2024, Nogales, AZ, Arizona voted Democratic by 18.6 points (D+19), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 19,167 votes cast, 11,265 went Democratic and 7,699 went Republican.
What is Nogales, AZ, Arizona's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Nogales, AZ, Arizona as a "Populist" metro based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the metro has voted Democratic 20 times, Republican 9 times, and other 0 times.
When did Nogales, AZ, Arizona last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Nogales, AZ, Arizona voted Republican was 1988.
How many people live in Nogales, AZ, Arizona?
Nogales, AZ, Arizona has a population of 48,926 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Nogales, AZ, Arizona?
Median household income in Nogales, AZ, Arizona is $55,217 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Nogales, AZ, Arizona?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Nogales, AZ, Arizona from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 20 went Democratic and 9 went Republican. The metro's archetype — "Populist" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.