akashic
1876–2024
Oak Harbor, WA·Washington

Oak Harbor, WA delivered D+16 in 2024 — close enough to flip again next time.

Island County's naval presence shapes a reliably right-leaning electorate

18762024·38 elections
WA
Latest
D+16
in 2024
Archetype
Tossup
since the recent cycles
Population
86,836
2024 ACS

Oak Harbor, WA, Washington: Tossup metro. In 2024, voted D+16%. Republican peak: R+58 in 1904.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
D+16MIT Election Lab
Political archetype
TossupAkashic typology
Population
86,8362024 5-year
Median household income
$90,5512024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
77.7%2024 5-year
Black
2.3%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
8.7%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+27 in 1932MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+58 in 1904MIT Election Lab
1 counties · 1 D · 0 R
R+60
D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
D
+16.5%
29,59520,96752,449
D
+12.0%
29,21322,74653,925
D
+5.6%
20,96018,46544,273
D
+4.4%
21,47819,60542,372
D
+6.2%
22,05819,42642,159
R
−4.0%
18,21619,75438,580
R
−4.9%
14,77816,40833,004
R
−0.8%
12,15712,38728,464
D
+0.1%
9,5559,52627,168
R
−18.9%
8,51012,55221,353
R
−32.5%
6,85013,54820,616
R
−29.7%
5,42210,92618,559
R
−13.8%
5,8597,80414,104
R
−39.5%
3,1497,49511,003
R
−10.5%
3,2384,0778,000
D
+12.9%
3,9463,0446,999
R
−18.5%
2,4703,5966,094
R
−22.7%
2,0093,1965,222
R
−24.0%
1,7722,9014,703
R
−3.0%
1,6941,8053,680
D
+5.5%
1,6621,4873,187
D
+8.3%
1,6261,3713,057
D
+27.2%
1,6879212,813
D
+26.8%
1,5178032,662
R
−44.6%
5561,4872,087
O
−39.9%
1148321,799
R
−34.7%
2858831,725
D
+2.8%
8558041,845
O
−1.4%
3103321,573
R
−33.4%
192450773
R
−57.9%
83424589
R
−33.3%
123263420
R
−3.7%
191206405
R
−8.6%
127161396
No data
No data
No data
No data

Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
17.2%
English
16.2%
Irish
12.8%
Italian
4.0%
Scottish
3.9%
American
3.9%
French
3.0%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
90.6%
speak English only
Spanish3.9%
Asian & Pacific Islander3.6%
Other Indo-European1.6%
Other languages0.3%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Other Christian
41.0%
Catholic & Orthodox
6.1%
Mainline Protestant
3.9%
Pentecostal & Holiness
2.0%
Baptist
1.6%
Methodist
0.9%
Non-Christian
0.2%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 44.3% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Home to Naval Air Station Whidbey Island, Oak Harbor anchors a community where military families make up an outsized share of residents, consistently producing Republican presidential margins well above Washington state's suburban averages.

The metro's recent history is a story of close margins. The Democratic margin reached twenty-seven points in 1936; the Republican margin reached fifty-eight points in 1904. Most other elections have been decided by single-digit points.

Its demographics — a population of 86,836, a 78% non-Hispanic-white share, a median household income of $90,551 — situate the metro close to national averages on several dimensions.

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Oak Harbor, WA, Washington — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/cbsa/36020/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Oak Harbor, WA, Washington vote in 2024?
In 2024, Oak Harbor, WA, Washington voted Democratic by 16.5 points (D+16), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 52,449 votes cast, 29,595 went Democratic and 20,967 went Republican.
What is Oak Harbor, WA, Washington's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Oak Harbor, WA, Washington as a "Tossup" metro based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the metro has voted Democratic 12 times, Republican 20 times, and other 2 times.
When did Oak Harbor, WA, Washington last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Oak Harbor, WA, Washington voted Republican was 2004.
How many people live in Oak Harbor, WA, Washington?
Oak Harbor, WA, Washington has a population of 86,836 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Oak Harbor, WA, Washington?
Median household income in Oak Harbor, WA, Washington is $90,551 — above the national median of $80,734. The Washington state median is $98,141.
What is the political history of Oak Harbor, WA, Washington?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Oak Harbor, WA, Washington from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 12 went Democratic and 20 went Republican. The metro's archetype — "Tossup" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.