Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ Metro Area — Elections 1876–2024

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona: Bellwether metro. In 2024, voted R+5%. Republican peak: R+44 in 1984.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: R+5MIT Election Lab
Political archetype: BellwetherAkashic typology
Population: 5,028,7542024 5-year
Median household income: $88,4572024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 58.9%2024 5-year
Black: 5.7%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 31.1%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+39 in 1936MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+44 in 1984MIT Election Lab

2024 results by constituent county

2 counties · 0 D · 2 R

R+60

D+60

One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.

38 presidential elections

Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
Year	Won	Margin	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	R	−5.2%	1,060,672	1,178,457	2,271,747
2020	D	+0.6%	1,115,880	1,102,742	2,261,611
2016	R	−4.1%	750,799	820,180	1,697,380
2012	R	−11.1%	646,594	811,964	1,489,641
2008	R	−10.8%	646,420	805,869	1,469,845
2004	R	−14.6%	532,101	716,461	1,259,583
2000	R	−9.9%	406,333	500,089	942,989
1996	R	−1.8%	383,570	399,049	854,327
1992	R	−7.7%	300,925	371,718	913,571
1988	R	−29.9%	244,802	457,303	710,698
1984	R	−43.5%	166,756	428,366	600,892
1980	R	−39.1%	128,959	328,482	510,092
1976	R	−25.6%	155,208	267,616	439,445
1972	R	−41.5%	101,539	255,177	370,559
1968	R	−26.0%	93,613	169,145	290,897
1964	R	−6.4%	131,953	150,070	282,198
1960	R	−17.3%	94,066	133,531	227,743
1956	R	−24.7%	59,073	97,902	157,183
1952	R	−20.0%	54,807	82,234	137,041
1948	D	+6.2%	44,070	38,817	84,879
1944	D	+13.6%	35,223	26,762	62,215
1940	D	+23.0%	39,466	24,606	64,508
1936	D	+39.3%	35,529	14,887	52,478
1932	D	+32.3%	31,738	16,086	48,464
1928	R	−23.1%	13,565	21,720	35,323
1924	R	−5.8%	10,165	11,686	26,119
1920	R	−12.0%	10,089	12,829	22,918
1916	D	+13.5%	8,866	6,602	16,819
1912	D	+34.5%	2,958	722	6,474
1908	—	No data	—	—	—
1904	—	No data	—	—	—
1900	—	No data	—	—	—
1896	—	No data	—	—	—
1892	—	No data	—	—	—
1888	—	No data	—	—	—
1884	—	No data	—	—	—
1880	—	No data	—	—	—
1876	—	No data	—	—	—

Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry

Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.

German

12.5%

English

9.8%

Irish

8.8%

Italian

4.3%

American

4.2%

Polish

2.2%

French

1.7%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.

Age distribution by sex

Median age: 37.9 in this county, 39.1 nationally

Male

Age

Female

0.7%

85+

1.1%

2.5%

75–84

2.9%

4.4%

65–74

5.1%

5.7%

55–64

6.0%

6.1%

45–54

6.1%

6.8%

35–44

6.5%

7.5%

25–34

7.1%

4.8%

18–24

4.4%

8.6%

5–17

8.2%

2.9%

2.8%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

Median household income

2024 inflation-adjusted dollars

$88,457

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ ranks near the middle of US counties.

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ$88,457

Arizona$79,964

United States$80,734

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

Poverty rate

All persons below federal poverty line

11.0%

Child poverty is below the national average.

Children under 1814.3%

Working age (18–64)10.0%

Seniors (65+)10.5%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

Language at home

Population aged 5 and older

74.7%

speak English only

Spanish19.0%

Asian & Pacific Islander2.6%

Other Indo-European2.3%

Other languages1.4%

Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.

Religious adherents

Adherents per capita by tradition

Catholic & Orthodox

23.2%

Other Christian

14.9%

Non-Christian

3.0%

Pentecostal & Holiness

1.7%

Mainline Protestant

1.6%

Baptist

1.6%

Methodist

0.6%

Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 53.5% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler added roughly 200,000 residents between 2020 and 2023, accelerating a suburban realignment that narrowed once-reliable statewide margins and elevated Maricopa County to one of the most closely watched bellwether counties in the Southwest.

The Democratic margin in Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ has rarely exceeded thirty-nine points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded forty-four points. 2024 delivered the metro to the Republican candidate by five points.

Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most metros. A 59% non-Hispanic-white share, a 11% poverty rate, and a median household income of $88,457 — all within the broad national range.

Cite this page

All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/cbsa/38060/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.

License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona vote in 2024?

In 2024, Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona voted Republican by 5.2 points (R+5), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 2,271,747 votes cast, 1,060,672 went Democratic and 1,178,457 went Republican.

What is Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona's political archetype?

Akashic classifies Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona as a "Bellwether" metro based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the metro has voted Democratic 8 times, Republican 21 times, and other 0 times.

When did Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona last vote Democratic?

The most recent presidential election in which Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona voted Democratic was 2020.

How many people live in Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona?

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona has a population of 5,028,754 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona?

Median household income in Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona is $88,457 — above the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.

What is the political history of Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 8 went Democratic and 21 went Republican. The metro's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ votes the way the country votes.

Key facts

Demographics

Frequently asked questions