akashic
1876–2024
Salem, OR·Oregon

Salem, OR votes the way the country votes.

Oregon's capital corridor anchors a competitive mid-valley electorate

1876 — 2024·38 elections
OR
Latest
R+2
in 2024
Archetype
Bellwether
since the recent cycles
Population
438,906
2024 ACS

Salem, OR, Oregon: Bellwether metro. In 2024, voted R+2%. Republican peak: R+48 in 1904.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
R+2MIT Election Lab
Political archetype
BellwetherAkashic typology
Population
438,9062024 5-year
Median household income
$78,9382024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
68.6%2024 5-year
Black
1.1%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
26.3%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+26 in 1936MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+48 in 1904MIT Election Lab
2024 results by constituent county
2 counties · 0 D · 2 R
R+60
D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
R
−2.4%
96,001100,851204,274
D
+0.5%
103,789102,734213,825
R
−4.6%
74,20882,317177,135
R
−3.4%
72,66878,009155,633
D
+1.6%
79,35276,773160,770
R
−9.8%
73,15589,408165,108
R
−7.8%
61,35172,431141,783
D
+1.3%
59,57957,893132,794
R
−1.1%
50,68852,227135,948
R
−4.6%
50,81955,845109,113
R
−19.6%
45,14967,213112,641
R
−11.5%
39,96752,197105,980
R
−2.3%
41,92244,02589,861
R
−19.8%
29,81645,42678,970
R
−14.9%
27,28837,41468,073
D
+25.7%
39,38323,21662,838
R
−17.1%
25,36935,83361,268
R
−27.3%
20,21735,39455,611
R
−40.9%
15,32036,73752,317
R
−16.2%
16,63423,32541,183
R
−13.5%
15,22520,08035,941
R
−7.7%
18,10821,15139,575
D
+25.8%
19,23010,84132,569
D
+17.8%
16,27711,18128,645
R
−26.1%
8,72214,99824,005
R
−25.8%
5,61711,10621,239
R
−33.7%
5,48411,50717,892
R
−12.7%
8,54311,21521,042
O
+2.0%
3,7893,56611,337
R
−20.1%
3,3525,2449,425
R
−48.3%
1,6055,4868,031
R
−12.0%
3,3094,2758,023
R
−2.4%
4,7534,9979,991
R
−31.9%
1,3113,9228,188
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Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
16.5%
English
12.4%
Irish
8.9%
American
3.6%
Italian
2.7%
Scottish
2.7%
French
2.3%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 37.6 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.8%
85+
1.2%
2.2%
75–84
2.8%
4.7%
65–74
5.4%
5.6%
55–64
5.8%
6.0%
45–54
5.7%
6.7%
35–44
6.4%
7.1%
25–34
6.7%
5.0%
18–24
4.8%
9.0%
5–17
8.4%
2.9%
<5
2.8%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$78,938
Salem, OR ranks near the middle of US counties.
Salem, OR$78,938
Oregon$83,011
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
12.9%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1816.2%
Working age (18–64)12.1%
Seniors (65+)10.7%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
77.2%
speak English only
Spanish18.3%
Other Indo-European2.0%
Asian & Pacific Islander2.0%
Other languages0.4%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
19.5%
Other Christian
14.3%
Pentecostal & Holiness
3.8%
Mainline Protestant
2.5%
Methodist
0.6%
Baptist
0.5%
Non-Christian
0.3%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 58.3% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

The Salem metro blends state-government employment with a substantial Latino population in surrounding Marion County, producing margins that consistently run closer than the Portland media market and make it a bellwether for statewide ballot measures.

The Democratic margin in Salem, OR has rarely exceeded twenty-six points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded forty-eight points. 2024 delivered the metro to the Republican candidate by two points.

Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most metros. A 69% non-Hispanic-white share, a 13% poverty rate, and a median household income of $78,938 — all within the broad national range.

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Salem, OR, Oregon — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/cbsa/41420/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Salem, OR, Oregon vote in 2024?
In 2024, Salem, OR, Oregon voted Republican by 2.4 points (R+2), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 204,274 votes cast, 96,001 went Democratic and 100,851 went Republican.
What is Salem, OR, Oregon's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Salem, OR, Oregon as a "Bellwether" metro based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the metro has voted Democratic 6 times, Republican 27 times, and other 1 times.
When did Salem, OR, Oregon last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Salem, OR, Oregon voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Salem, OR, Oregon?
Salem, OR, Oregon has a population of 438,906 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Salem, OR, Oregon?
Median household income in Salem, OR, Oregon is $78,938 — below the national median of $80,734. The Oregon state median is $83,011.
What is the political history of Salem, OR, Oregon?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Salem, OR, Oregon from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 6 went Democratic and 27 went Republican. The metro's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.