San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX, Texas: Bellwether metro. In 2024, voted R+5%. Democratic peak: D+68 in 1932.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+5MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- BellwetherAkashic typology
- Population
- 2,662,7332024 5-year
- Median household income
- $77,0942024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 47.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 7.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 54.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+68 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+24 in 1972MIT Election Lab
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 495,879 | 552,099 | 1,062,747 | ||
| D | 529,607 | 495,195 | 1,042,290 | ||
| R | 371,623 | 380,665 | 795,690 | ||
| R | 311,695 | 366,744 | 689,071 | ||
| R | 324,840 | 359,129 | 689,418 | ||
| R | 247,841 | 367,271 | 619,749 | ||
| R | 216,271 | 298,442 | 529,704 | ||
| R | 210,846 | 216,618 | 456,101 | ||
| R | 198,952 | 211,605 | 506,081 | ||
| R | 202,397 | 243,696 | 449,455 | ||
| R | 157,324 | 254,477 | 412,539 | ||
| R | 158,412 | 198,049 | 369,051 | ||
| D | 171,295 | 146,009 | 321,440 | ||
| R | 103,190 | 167,509 | 271,850 | ||
| D | 109,594 | 88,524 | 219,505 | ||
| D | 128,820 | 63,969 | 193,218 | ||
| D | 89,196 | 78,247 | 168,443 | ||
| R | 55,863 | 82,187 | 138,796 | ||
| R | 60,721 | 83,447 | 144,696 | ||
| D | 46,340 | 35,022 | 86,454 | ||
| D | 44,127 | 33,104 | 80,347 | ||
| D | 48,970 | 26,851 | 76,056 | ||
| D | 48,143 | 17,435 | 65,910 | ||
| D | 52,847 | 9,989 | 63,260 | ||
| D | 24,666 | 22,779 | 47,518 | ||
| D | 16,048 | 14,612 | 39,531 | ||
| R | 9,923 | 14,370 | 28,103 | ||
| D | 11,301 | 9,911 | 21,663 | ||
| D | 9,225 | 2,868 | 16,691 | ||
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Demographics
Home to four major military installations and a population that is roughly 55% Hispanic, the San Antonio–New Braunfels metro has trended more competitive at the presidential level even as Bexar County's suburban fringe absorbs rapid in-migration from across Texas.
The Democratic margin in San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX has rarely exceeded sixty-eight points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded twenty-four points. 2024 delivered the metro to the Republican candidate by five points.
Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most metros. A 47% non-Hispanic-white share, a 13% poverty rate, and a median household income of $77,094 — all within the broad national range.
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX, Texas — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/cbsa/41700/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.