akashic
1876–2024
San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA·California

San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA changed direction in the last decade — D+17 in 2024.

A once-reliably Republican metro that shifted Democratic as its suburbs diversified

1876 — 2024·38 elections
CA
Latest
D+17
in 2024
Archetype
Recent convert
since the recent cycles
Population
3,288,774
2024 ACS

San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA, California: Recent convert metro. In 2024, voted D+17%. Democratic peak: D+45 in 1912.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
D+17MIT Election Lab
Political archetype
Recent convertAkashic typology
Population
3,288,7742024 5-year
Median household income
$106,2682024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
48.4%2024 5-year
Black
4.7%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
34.6%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+45 in 1912MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+43 in 1924MIT Election Lab
2024 results by constituent county
1 counties · 1 D · 0 R
R+60
D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
D
+16.8%
841,372593,2701,478,028
D
+22.8%
964,650600,0941,602,143
D
+19.6%
735,476477,7661,311,618
D
+7.6%
626,957536,7261,193,949
D
+10.2%
666,581541,0321,235,503
R
−6.1%
526,437596,0331,136,351
R
−4.0%
437,666475,736958,634
R
−1.5%
389,964402,876884,151
D
+1.5%
367,397352,125986,646
R
−21.8%
333,264523,143869,195
R
−31.9%
257,029502,344769,267
R
−33.5%
195,410435,910716,866
R
−14.1%
263,654353,302633,795
R
−27.5%
206,455371,627601,137
R
−20.2%
167,669261,540464,863
R
−0.6%
211,808214,445426,286
R
−13.1%
171,259223,056395,421
R
−29.3%
106,716195,742303,605
R
−26.3%
101,880175,281278,751
R
−1.6%
98,217101,552205,459
D
+8.5%
89,95975,746166,764
D
+12.3%
71,18855,434128,110
D
+28.4%
64,62835,686101,854
D
+12.1%
45,62235,30585,150
R
−35.2%
22,74947,76971,151
R
−42.6%
2,94422,72646,391
R
−36.5%
8,47819,82631,087
R
−0.4%
16,81516,97836,537
O
+44.8%
9,731021,728
R
−32.1%
2,3935,4129,403
R
−40.2%
1,3984,3037,230
R
−16.2%
2,6783,8006,921
D
+3.6%
3,9083,6317,748
R
−15.4%
2,3343,5257,712
R
−18.0%
3,1894,6618,194
R
−16.3%
8001,1201,965
R
−15.1%
5467431,308
R
−8.6%
6687941,462

Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
9.1%
English
8.0%
Irish
7.8%
Italian
4.2%
American
2.5%
French
1.8%
Polish
1.6%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 37.3 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.7%
85+
1.1%
2.0%
75–84
2.5%
4.3%
65–74
4.8%
5.8%
55–64
5.9%
6.1%
45–54
6.0%
7.4%
35–44
6.9%
8.3%
25–34
7.6%
5.3%
18–24
4.5%
7.9%
5–17
7.5%
2.9%
<5
2.7%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$106,268
San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA ranks near the middle of US counties.
San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA$106,268
California$99,122
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
10.3%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 1811.8%
Working age (18–64)9.9%
Seniors (65+)10.1%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
62.7%
speak English only
Spanish24.1%
Asian & Pacific Islander7.8%
Other Indo-European3.7%
Other languages1.7%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
23.2%
Other Christian
10.1%
Non-Christian
3.1%
Pentecostal & Holiness
1.5%
Mainline Protestant
1.5%
Baptist
1.4%
Methodist
0.6%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 58.6% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

San Diego's large active-duty and veteran population coexists with a majority-minority electorate shaped by Latino growth along the South Bay corridor, producing a metro that swings on suburban turnout in mid-cycle elections.

The 2008 election was the turning point, when the Democratic candidate carried the metro by ten points. The 2024 margin was seventeen points, in line with the metro's new direction.

The demographics suggest why. A population of 3,288,774, a 48% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $106,268 situate the metro in the broader realignment patterns of recent cycles.

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA, California — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/cbsa/41740/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA, California vote in 2024?
In 2024, San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA, California voted Democratic by 16.8 points (D+17), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 1,478,028 votes cast, 841,372 went Democratic and 593,270 went Republican.
What is San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA, California's political archetype?
Akashic classifies San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA, California as a "Recent convert" metro based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the metro has voted Democratic 11 times, Republican 26 times, and other 1 times.
When did San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA, California last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA, California voted Republican was 2004.
How many people live in San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA, California?
San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA, California has a population of 3,288,774 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA, California?
Median household income in San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA, California is $106,268 — above the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA, California?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA, California from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 11 went Democratic and 26 went Republican. The metro's archetype — "Recent convert" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.