akashic
1876–2024
Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA·Pennsylvania

Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA peaked at D+43; 2024 delivered R+11.

Northeastern PA's post-industrial corridor where margins have narrowed sharply since 2008

1876 — 2024·38 elections
PA
Latest
R+11
in 2024
Archetype
Populist
since the recent cycles
Population
569,788
2024 ACS

Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA, Pennsylvania: Populist metro. In 2024, voted R+11%. Democratic peak: D+43 in 1964.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
R+11MIT Election Lab
Political archetype
PopulistAkashic typology
Population
569,7882024 5-year
Median household income
$65,0512024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
78.7%2024 5-year
Black
4.1%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
13.8%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+43 in 1964MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+32 in 1904MIT Election Lab
2024 results by constituent county
3 counties · 1 D · 2 R
R+60
D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
R
−11.2%
126,694158,927288,452
R
−6.2%
131,568149,199283,589
R
−10.9%
108,245135,909253,567
D
+13.3%
131,20699,997235,117
D
+15.0%
145,997107,598256,189
D
+6.5%
134,128117,501254,679
D
+13.0%
124,03394,346227,676
D
+16.8%
110,60075,395209,906
D
+7.3%
104,83587,871232,964
R
−0.4%
106,941107,749216,280
R
−7.5%
106,851124,531234,245
R
−4.2%
107,999117,983239,694
D
+10.8%
135,968109,117248,261
R
−19.4%
98,705146,619247,106
D
+15.4%
147,703106,639265,895
D
+42.8%
198,79679,031279,755
D
+18.9%
185,822126,535312,975
R
−13.8%
123,016162,750287,055
R
−5.8%
139,320156,383296,601
D
+2.3%
128,038122,289253,487
D
+5.9%
134,846119,826255,359
D
+11.2%
175,468139,889316,423
D
+15.3%
188,862138,079331,065
D
+6.6%
104,49691,272199,329
D
+2.9%
126,890119,703246,940
R
−31.6%
38,52587,396154,518
R
−29.8%
49,30193,220147,303
R
−8.8%
37,17044,70485,195
O
+23.3%
27,3899,24977,754
R
−13.3%
34,45945,41882,525
R
−32.0%
25,16150,04077,818
R
−10.1%
33,07340,80376,498
R
−16.4%
31,12543,82877,310
D
+1.9%
27,99026,87657,480
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Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
Irish
18.2%
Italian
16.0%
Polish
14.5%
German
13.9%
English
6.3%
American
4.0%
French
0.9%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 42.1 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.8%
85+
1.8%
2.6%
75–84
3.4%
5.6%
65–74
6.1%
6.9%
55–64
7.0%
6.2%
45–54
6.1%
6.2%
35–44
5.9%
6.4%
25–34
6.0%
4.4%
18–24
4.2%
7.8%
5–17
7.4%
2.7%
<5
2.4%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$65,051
Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA ranks near the middle of US counties.
Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA$65,051
Pennsylvania$77,971
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
14.8%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1822.5%
Working age (18–64)12.8%
Seniors (65+)12.9%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
86.8%
speak English only
Spanish9.7%
Other Indo-European2.3%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.8%
Other languages0.4%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
39.1%
Other Christian
4.4%
Methodist
3.6%
Mainline Protestant
3.2%
Pentecostal & Holiness
2.3%
Non-Christian
1.7%
Baptist
0.7%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 45.1% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Once a Democratic stronghold anchored by union households and Catholic working-class voters, the Scranton–Wilkes-Barre metro has shifted toward single-digit or sub-single-digit presidential margins over the past three cycles, making it a closely watched bellwether for blue-collar realignment.

The Democratic margin in Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA peaked at forty-three points in 1964. By 2016 the metro had flipped, voting Republican for the first time in many years. The 2024 margin was eleven points, the most Republican-leaning result in the metro's modern history.

The economic context is the key. The median household income of $65,051 sits well below state and national norms, and 15% of residents live below the federal poverty line. The shift here is part of a broader realignment of working-class places across the country.

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA, Pennsylvania — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/cbsa/42540/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA, Pennsylvania vote in 2024?
In 2024, Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA, Pennsylvania voted Republican by 11.2 points (R+11), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 288,452 votes cast, 126,694 went Democratic and 158,927 went Republican.
What is Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA, Pennsylvania's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA, Pennsylvania as a "Populist" metro based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the metro has voted Democratic 17 times, Republican 16 times, and other 1 times.
When did Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA, Pennsylvania last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA, Pennsylvania voted Democratic was 2012.
How many people live in Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA, Pennsylvania?
Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA, Pennsylvania has a population of 569,788 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA, Pennsylvania?
Median household income in Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA, Pennsylvania is $65,051 — below the national median of $80,734. The Pennsylvania state median is $77,971.
What is the political history of Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA, Pennsylvania?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA, Pennsylvania from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 17 went Democratic and 16 went Republican. The metro's archetype — "Populist" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.