South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI, Indiana: Bellwether metro. In 2024, voted R+6%. Republican peak: R+27 in 1904.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+6MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- BellwetherAkashic typology
- Population
- 324,5602024 5-year
- Median household income
- $67,4352024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 73.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 11.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 9.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+24 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+27 in 1904MIT Election Lab
Constituent county margins for South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI, INOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
R+60D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 64,265 | 72,090 | 138,739 | ||
| R | 69,026 | 69,863 | 141,454 | ||
| R | 59,517 | 66,262 | 134,430 | ||
| D | 66,051 | 65,237 | 133,499 | ||
| D | 80,793 | 59,624 | 141,965 | ||
| R | 62,174 | 68,218 | 131,316 | ||
| R | 56,511 | 58,126 | 117,299 | ||
| D | 53,911 | 45,654 | 111,168 | ||
| D | 54,250 | 46,325 | 124,748 | ||
| R | 55,500 | 59,710 | 115,620 | ||
| R | 54,147 | 66,051 | 120,887 | ||
| R | 51,276 | 61,813 | 122,849 | ||
| R | 56,999 | 60,251 | 118,263 | ||
| R | 46,611 | 75,206 | 122,720 | ||
| R | 53,030 | 54,110 | 121,770 | ||
| D | 74,633 | 45,797 | 121,088 | ||
| D | 70,021 | 62,206 | 132,616 | ||
| R | 58,994 | 66,726 | 126,260 | ||
| R | 57,769 | 62,016 | 120,704 | ||
| D | 53,067 | 45,208 | 99,878 | ||
| D | 50,566 | 46,441 | 97,640 | ||
| D | 49,960 | 43,032 | 93,426 | ||
| D | 48,245 | 30,332 | 80,684 | ||
| D | 43,375 | 32,192 | 78,199 | ||
| R | 29,192 | 42,564 | 72,149 | ||
| R | 17,384 | 28,227 | 48,666 | ||
| R | 13,641 | 22,173 | 37,363 | ||
| D | 12,375 | 10,479 | 23,900 | ||
| O | 7,467 | 4,608 | 20,988 | ||
| R | 11,028 | 14,304 | 26,659 | ||
| R | 7,904 | 14,316 | 23,322 | ||
| R | 9,773 | 11,344 | 21,514 | ||
| R | 9,259 | 10,172 | 19,706 | ||
| D | 8,501 | 7,951 | 17,343 | ||
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Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
19.0%
Irish
11.8%
English
9.1%
Polish
7.4%
American
6.1%
Italian
3.7%
French
1.6%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 38.1 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$67,435
South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI ranks near the middle of US counties.
South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI$67,435
Indiana$71,957
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
13.8%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1819.6%
Working age (18–64)12.1%
Seniors (65+)12.8%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
90.0%
speak English only
Spanish6.0%
Other Indo-European1.7%
Asian & Pacific Islander1.5%
Other languages1.0%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 62.8% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Anchored by a major research university yet shaped by deindustrialized neighborhoods, the South Bend metro produces unusually competitive margins for northern Indiana, with the Michigan counties across the state line adding a distinct demographic wrinkle.
The Democratic margin in South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI has rarely exceeded twenty-four points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded twenty-seven points. 2024 delivered the metro to the Republican candidate by six points.
Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most metros. A 73% non-Hispanic-white share, a 14% poverty rate, and a median household income of $67,435 — all within the broad national range.
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI, Indiana — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/cbsa/43780/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI, Indiana vote in 2024?
In 2024, South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI, Indiana voted Republican by 5.6 points (R+6), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 138,739 votes cast, 64,265 went Democratic and 72,090 went Republican.
What is South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI, Indiana's political archetype?
Akashic classifies South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI, Indiana as a "Bellwether" metro based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the metro has voted Democratic 13 times, Republican 20 times, and other 1 times.
When did South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI, Indiana last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI, Indiana voted Democratic was 2012.
How many people live in South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI, Indiana?
South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI, Indiana has a population of 324,560 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI, Indiana?
Median household income in South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI, Indiana is $67,435 — below the national median of $80,734. The Indiana state median is $71,957.
What is the political history of South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI, Indiana?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI, Indiana from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 13 went Democratic and 20 went Republican. The metro's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.