akashic
1876–2024
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL·Florida

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL delivered R+10 in 2024.

A Sun Belt bellwether where margins have tightened each cycle

1876 — 2024·38 elections
FL
Latest
R+10
in 2024
Archetype
Bellwether
since the recent cycles
Population
3,304,691
2024 ACS

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, Florida: Bellwether metro. In 2024, voted R+10%. Democratic peak: D+92 in 1892.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
R+10MIT Election Lab
Political archetype
BellwetherAkashic typology
Population
3,304,6912024 5-year
Median household income
$75,0112024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
62.8%2024 5-year
Black
11.7%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
21.8%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+92 in 1892MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+41 in 1972MIT Election Lab
2024 results by constituent county
4 counties · 0 D · 4 R
R+60
D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
R
−10.4%
715,575884,6121,617,906
R
−2.6%
810,409853,6401,682,670
R
−3.1%
663,534707,1421,424,998
D
+3.1%
661,664620,8091,297,044
D
+5.0%
665,565601,5461,279,361
R
−4.7%
561,528617,1271,190,042
D
+0.8%
472,457464,908966,885
D
+7.4%
424,013359,212876,080
R
−0.8%
348,114355,401918,401
R
−16.8%
317,256446,215767,752
R
−29.0%
267,970486,435754,532
R
−12.8%
269,611354,123660,791
D
+2.8%
277,895262,606547,193
R
−40.6%
135,942322,042458,711
R
−12.7%
121,873170,472382,425
D
+12.2%
180,125140,973321,098
R
−11.0%
128,086159,663287,749
R
−25.9%
72,339122,999195,338
R
−23.8%
60,27097,848158,118
R
−3.2%
37,77840,70992,363
D
+34.7%
54,24526,29080,535
D
+40.4%
53,92122,87576,796
D
+40.7%
35,61815,01650,634
D
+43.4%
32,41412,79945,213
R
−22.3%
15,44124,50040,554
D
+21.2%
8,1834,98815,080
D
+21.8%
11,6127,06320,870
D
+54.1%
7,3551,52010,794
D
+61.1%
4,2513246,425
D
+62.9%
3,3995054,603
D
+50.4%
2,6016243,922
D
+63.3%
3,0013994,112
D
+57.2%
2,8286913,739
D
+91.9%
3,41603,719
—
No data
———
D
+57.3%
2,2976232,920
—
No data
———
—
No data
———

Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
11.0%
Irish
9.7%
English
9.3%
American
8.4%
Italian
7.0%
Polish
2.7%
French
2.0%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 42.8 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.9%
85+
1.4%
2.9%
75–84
3.6%
5.3%
65–74
6.1%
6.6%
55–64
7.0%
6.2%
45–54
6.4%
6.5%
35–44
6.6%
6.6%
25–34
6.6%
3.9%
18–24
3.9%
7.4%
5–17
7.0%
2.5%
<5
2.4%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$75,011
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL ranks near the middle of US counties.
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL$75,011
Florida$74,568
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
12.0%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 1814.8%
Working age (18–64)11.1%
Seniors (65+)13.1%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
76.9%
speak English only
Spanish15.6%
Other Indo-European4.3%
Asian & Pacific Islander2.3%
Other languages1.0%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
23.7%
Other Christian
11.5%
Baptist
6.3%
Methodist
2.9%
Pentecostal & Holiness
2.2%
Non-Christian
1.8%
Mainline Protestant
1.5%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 50.2% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

The Tampa Bay metro blends retiree-heavy coastal suburbs with a diverse urban core and a large Puerto Rican community in Hillsborough County, producing some of Florida's most closely contested countywide results.

The Democratic margin in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL has rarely exceeded ninety-two points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded forty-one points. 2024 delivered the metro to the Republican candidate by ten points.

Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most metros. A 63% non-Hispanic-white share, a 12% poverty rate, and a median household income of $75,011 — all within the broad national range.

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, Florida — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/cbsa/45300/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, Florida vote in 2024?
In 2024, Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, Florida voted Republican by 10.4 points (R+10), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 1,617,906 votes cast, 715,575 went Democratic and 884,612 went Republican.
What is Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, Florida's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, Florida as a "Bellwether" metro based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the metro has voted Democratic 20 times, Republican 15 times, and other 0 times.
When did Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, Florida last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, Florida voted Democratic was 2012.
How many people live in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, Florida?
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, Florida has a population of 3,304,691 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, Florida?
Median household income in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, Florida is $75,011 — below the national median of $80,734. The Florida state median is $74,568.
What is the political history of Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, Florida?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, Florida from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 20 went Democratic and 15 went Republican. The metro's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.