akashic
1876–2024
Toledo, OH·Ohio

Toledo, OH votes the way the country votes.

A Lake Erie industrial hub where union households still shape the ballot

1876 — 2024·38 elections
OH
Latest
D+3
in 2024
Archetype
Bellwether
since the recent cycles
Population
602,322
2024 ACS

Toledo, OH, Ohio: Bellwether metro. In 2024, voted D+3%. Republican peak: R+44 in 1924.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
D+3MIT Election Lab
Political archetype
BellwetherAkashic typology
Population
602,3222024 5-year
Median household income
$65,6002024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
73.8%2024 5-year
Black
14.2%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
7.6%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+33 in 1964MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+44 in 1924MIT Election Lab
2024 results by constituent county
3 counties · 1 D · 2 R
R+60
D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
D
+2.7%
142,710135,168282,639
D
+6.7%
152,692133,251290,990
D
+7.7%
144,220121,905288,126
D
+22.5%
178,491111,382297,606
D
+23.4%
187,037115,043307,634
D
+11.8%
170,340134,392305,730
D
+9.8%
137,836112,392258,440
D
+19.0%
134,75687,341248,997
D
+12.4%
126,31992,234275,026
D
+1.4%
123,410120,031245,456
R
−9.2%
117,417141,447261,238
R
−6.5%
103,452119,487248,218
D
+9.5%
125,434103,291233,987
R
−4.6%
107,251117,868230,568
D
+5.6%
105,55193,331220,164
D
+32.8%
150,01875,897225,915
R
−2.8%
116,680123,326240,006
R
−11.8%
99,773126,375226,148
R
−9.3%
102,776123,950226,726
R
−0.0%
86,46186,518175,124
R
−8.1%
86,281101,521187,802
R
−6.2%
90,189102,056192,245
D
+15.0%
88,99263,721167,981
D
+12.1%
80,90762,849148,722
R
−32.1%
51,377100,260152,460
R
−43.8%
16,57269,286120,345
R
−29.0%
37,46670,602114,312
D
+21.4%
39,08224,67867,271
O
+21.9%
20,1608,57152,899
R
−7.6%
23,96428,22756,422
R
−39.9%
13,33733,54250,665
R
−8.3%
23,40427,73852,437
R
−8.7%
22,87627,27550,684
R
−7.5%
16,52719,33337,448
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Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
25.9%
Irish
11.3%
English
9.4%
Polish
7.2%
American
4.6%
Italian
3.6%
French
3.2%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 38.2 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.7%
85+
1.1%
2.1%
75–84
3.0%
5.0%
65–74
5.6%
6.2%
55–64
6.6%
5.7%
45–54
5.9%
6.0%
35–44
6.1%
6.7%
25–34
6.7%
5.2%
18–24
5.2%
8.5%
5–17
8.1%
2.9%
<5
2.8%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$65,600
Toledo, OH ranks near the middle of US counties.
Toledo, OH$65,600
Ohio$71,389
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
15.9%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1821.2%
Working age (18–64)14.7%
Seniors (65+)11.3%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
94.1%
speak English only
Spanish2.5%
Other Indo-European1.4%
Other languages1.1%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.9%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
16.6%
Other Christian
11.7%
Mainline Protestant
6.1%
Baptist
3.0%
Methodist
2.8%
Pentecostal & Holiness
2.4%
Non-Christian
2.2%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 55.3% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Toledo's Lucas County anchors a metro that has swung between parties in presidential cycles, with manufacturing employment and a substantial Latino community in the city core acting as persistent variables in turnout models.

The Democratic margin in Toledo, OH has rarely exceeded thirty-three points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded forty-four points. 2024 delivered the metro to the Democratic candidate by three points.

Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most metros. A 74% non-Hispanic-white share, a 16% poverty rate, and a median household income of $65,600 — all within the broad national range.

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Toledo, OH, Ohio — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/cbsa/45780/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Toledo, OH, Ohio vote in 2024?
In 2024, Toledo, OH, Ohio voted Democratic by 2.7 points (D+3), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 282,639 votes cast, 142,710 went Democratic and 135,168 went Republican.
What is Toledo, OH, Ohio's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Toledo, OH, Ohio as a "Bellwether" metro based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the metro has voted Democratic 16 times, Republican 17 times, and other 1 times.
When did Toledo, OH, Ohio last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Toledo, OH, Ohio voted Republican was 1984.
How many people live in Toledo, OH, Ohio?
Toledo, OH, Ohio has a population of 602,322 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Toledo, OH, Ohio?
Median household income in Toledo, OH, Ohio is $65,600 — below the national median of $80,734. The Ohio state median is $71,389.
What is the political history of Toledo, OH, Ohio?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Toledo, OH, Ohio from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 16 went Democratic and 17 went Republican. The metro's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.