Tucson, AZ, Arizona: Democratic loyalist metro. In 2024, voted D+15%. Democratic peak: D+33 in 1936.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+15MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- Democratic loyalistAkashic typology
- Population
- 1,060,4902024 5-year
- Median household income
- $70,3152024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 59.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 3.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 36.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+33 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+25 in 1956MIT Election Lab
Constituent county margins for Tucson, AZ, AZOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
R+60D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 292,450 | 214,669 | 515,027 | ||
| D | 304,981 | 207,758 | 522,174 | ||
| D | 224,661 | 167,428 | 421,640 | ||
| D | 201,251 | 174,779 | 383,173 | ||
| D | 206,254 | 182,406 | 393,428 | ||
| D | 193,128 | 171,109 | 367,492 | ||
| D | 147,688 | 124,579 | 287,640 | ||
| D | 137,983 | 104,121 | 264,552 | ||
| D | 128,569 | 97,036 | 281,484 | ||
| R | 113,824 | 117,899 | 234,473 | ||
| R | 91,585 | 123,830 | 217,612 | ||
| R | 64,418 | 93,055 | 187,057 | ||
| R | 71,214 | 77,264 | 155,061 | ||
| R | 56,223 | 73,154 | 161,110 | ||
| R | 39,786 | 49,479 | 97,766 | ||
| D | 54,120 | 46,955 | 101,278 | ||
| R | 42,171 | 46,734 | 89,144 | ||
| R | 23,536 | 39,298 | 62,885 | ||
| R | 21,237 | 32,113 | 53,350 | ||
| D | 17,692 | 16,968 | 35,625 | ||
| D | 13,006 | 10,850 | 23,913 | ||
| D | 14,035 | 9,445 | 23,562 | ||
| D | 12,249 | 6,079 | 18,590 | ||
| D | 11,061 | 6,152 | 17,727 | ||
| R | 4,976 | 6,635 | 11,653 | ||
| R | 2,594 | 3,559 | 8,439 | ||
| R | 2,455 | 3,392 | 5,847 | ||
| R | 2,079 | 2,616 | 4,922 | ||
| O | 693 | 353 | 1,804 | ||
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Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
13.1%
English
10.7%
Irish
9.2%
Italian
4.1%
American
3.3%
Polish
2.3%
Scottish
2.1%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 39.8 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$70,315
Tucson, AZ ranks near the middle of US counties.
Tucson, AZ$70,315
Arizona$79,964
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
14.3%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1818.6%
Working age (18–64)13.9%
Seniors (65+)8.8%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
74.3%
speak English only
Spanish20.8%
Other Indo-European1.9%
Asian & Pacific Islander1.8%
Other languages1.2%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 61.2% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Tucson anchors Pima County, one of Arizona's most consistently Democratic metros, driven by a large university population, significant Latino electorate, and a border-adjacent economy that shapes voters' priorities on trade and immigration policy.
The Democratic margin in Tucson, AZ reached its widest at thirty-three points in 1936. The margin in 2024 was fifteen points — still decisive.
Its loyalty is rooted in its place. Median household income of $70,315, a 59% non-Hispanic-white share, and a population of 1,060,490 together describe a metro whose political habits are deeply settled.
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Tucson, AZ, Arizona — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/cbsa/46060/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did Tucson, AZ, Arizona vote in 2024?
In 2024, Tucson, AZ, Arizona voted Democratic by 15.1 points (D+15), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 515,027 votes cast, 292,450 went Democratic and 214,669 went Republican.
What is Tucson, AZ, Arizona's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Tucson, AZ, Arizona as a "Democratic loyalist" metro based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the metro has voted Democratic 15 times, Republican 13 times, and other 1 times.
When did Tucson, AZ, Arizona last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Tucson, AZ, Arizona voted Republican was 1988.
How many people live in Tucson, AZ, Arizona?
Tucson, AZ, Arizona has a population of 1,060,490 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Tucson, AZ, Arizona?
Median household income in Tucson, AZ, Arizona is $70,315 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Tucson, AZ, Arizona?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Tucson, AZ, Arizona from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 15 went Democratic and 13 went Republican. The metro's archetype — "Democratic loyalist" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.