akashic
1876–2024
Warrensburg, MO·Missouri

Warrensburg, MO delivered R+39 in 2024.

College town and military community share a small-city electorate

1876 — 2024·38 elections
MO
Latest
R+39
in 2024
Archetype
Bellwether
since the recent cycles
Population
54,732
2024 ACS

Warrensburg, MO, Missouri: Bellwether metro. In 2024, voted R+39%. Republican peak: R+41 in 1972.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
R+39MIT Election Lab
Political archetype
BellwetherAkashic typology
Population
54,7322024 5-year
Median household income
$67,2722024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
85.3%2024 5-year
Black
4.3%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
5.2%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+26 in 1912MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+41 in 1972MIT Election Lab
2024 results by constituent county
1 counties · 0 D · 1 R
R+60
D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
R
−39.4%
6,96016,29823,688
R
−36.7%
6,97415,48923,172
R
−36.5%
5,93013,71921,362
R
−24.2%
7,66712,76321,021
R
−12.2%
9,48012,18322,080
R
−22.1%
7,79012,25720,236
R
−14.4%
6,9269,33916,787
R
−0.4%
6,2206,27614,574
D
+3.4%
5,5465,03215,203
R
−16.6%
5,3737,51212,921
R
−33.0%
4,2388,41312,651
R
−8.0%
5,4416,44912,585
D
+0.3%
5,5515,51311,220
R
−40.7%
3,0447,22810,272
R
−14.5%
3,4844,8349,336
D
+19.2%
6,4124,34810,760
R
−19.3%
4,7126,97011,682
R
−18.6%
4,5306,59911,129
R
−23.8%
4,2946,99011,307
R
−0.2%
4,8884,9039,805
R
−14.7%
4,4195,94910,378
R
−8.6%
5,4416,46811,928
D
+4.1%
6,2945,79712,113
D
+22.5%
6,4814,08810,645
R
−23.9%
4,3167,03211,367
D
+2.5%
5,5265,24811,006
R
−2.3%
5,4445,70011,252
D
+10.9%
3,7012,9666,767
D
+25.9%
3,4681,7726,559
D
+7.4%
3,4832,9976,595
D
+4.5%
3,2772,9896,419
D
+8.2%
3,6123,0516,816
D
+13.6%
4,2403,2197,507
D
+6.8%
3,1092,6676,461
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Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
19.2%
English
12.2%
Irish
11.0%
American
7.1%
Italian
2.7%
Scottish
2.2%
French
1.4%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 31.5 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.6%
85+
0.8%
1.7%
75–84
2.1%
4.0%
65–74
3.9%
5.2%
55–64
5.5%
4.7%
45–54
4.7%
6.2%
35–44
5.7%
7.5%
25–34
6.5%
9.9%
18–24
8.8%
8.1%
5–17
7.8%
3.2%
<5
3.1%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$67,272
Warrensburg, MO ranks near the middle of US counties.
Warrensburg, MO$67,272
Missouri$70,702
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
11.8%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 1812.5%
Working age (18–64)11.8%
Seniors (65+)9.5%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
95.1%
speak English only
Spanish2.0%
Asian & Pacific Islander1.5%
Other Indo-European0.8%
Other languages0.6%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Baptist
12.8%
Other Christian
7.2%
Catholic & Orthodox
3.3%
Mainline Protestant
3.1%
Methodist
2.2%
Non-Christian
0.4%
Pentecostal & Holiness
0.3%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 70.7% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Warrensburg anchors Johnson County, where the University of Central Missouri and nearby Whiteman Air Force Base produce an unusually mixed demographic base for a rural Missouri market, tempering the region's otherwise lopsided Republican margins.

The Democratic margin in Warrensburg, MO has rarely exceeded twenty-six points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded forty-one points. 2024 delivered the metro to the Republican candidate by thirty-nine points.

Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most metros. A 85% non-Hispanic-white share, a 12% poverty rate, and a median household income of $67,272 — all within the broad national range.

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Warrensburg, MO, Missouri — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/cbsa/47660/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Warrensburg, MO, Missouri vote in 2024?
In 2024, Warrensburg, MO, Missouri voted Republican by 39.4 points (R+39), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 23,688 votes cast, 6,960 went Democratic and 16,298 went Republican.
What is Warrensburg, MO, Missouri's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Warrensburg, MO, Missouri as a "Bellwether" metro based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the metro has voted Democratic 13 times, Republican 21 times, and other 0 times.
When did Warrensburg, MO, Missouri last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Warrensburg, MO, Missouri voted Democratic was 1992.
How many people live in Warrensburg, MO, Missouri?
Warrensburg, MO, Missouri has a population of 54,732 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Warrensburg, MO, Missouri?
Median household income in Warrensburg, MO, Missouri is $67,272 — below the national median of $80,734. The Missouri state median is $70,702.
What is the political history of Warrensburg, MO, Missouri?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Warrensburg, MO, Missouri from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 13 went Democratic and 21 went Republican. The metro's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.