Florida 15th Congressional District, Florida: Bellwether district. In 2024, voted R+8%. Democratic peak: D+94 in 1892.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+8MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- BellwetherAkashic typology
- Population
- 737,3722024 5-year
- Median household income
- $77,1942024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 54.3%2024 5-year
- Black
- 14.3%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 28.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+94 in 1892MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+42 in 1972MIT Election Lab
Constituent county margins for Congressional District 15, FLOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
R+60D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 151,538 | 179,474 | 335,017 | ||
| D | 172,916 | 169,569 | 346,452 | ||
| D | 139,939 | 137,292 | 288,115 | ||
| D | 133,380 | 123,630 | 259,767 | ||
| D | 129,114 | 117,839 | 249,036 | ||
| R | 101,970 | 119,606 | 223,548 | ||
| R | 81,658 | 86,544 | 173,030 | ||
| D | 71,083 | 64,700 | 150,626 | ||
| R | 56,693 | 62,212 | 151,705 | ||
| R | 49,291 | 73,361 | 123,391 | ||
| R | 42,475 | 77,243 | 119,741 | ||
| R | 42,320 | 53,164 | 100,598 | ||
| D | 44,846 | 37,578 | 83,405 | ||
| R | 20,156 | 49,370 | 69,655 | ||
| R | 19,325 | 22,055 | 62,154 | ||
| D | 29,991 | 22,541 | 52,533 | ||
| D | 25,809 | 21,561 | 47,370 | ||
| R | 16,358 | 18,143 | 34,502 | ||
| R | 14,284 | 15,708 | 29,992 | ||
| D | 8,227 | 5,875 | 17,748 | ||
| D | 12,917 | 4,404 | 17,321 | ||
| D | 13,144 | 3,515 | 16,659 | ||
| D | 8,608 | 2,479 | 11,087 | ||
| D | 8,210 | 2,126 | 10,336 | ||
| R | 4,264 | 5,129 | 9,567 | ||
| D | 2,006 | 776 | 3,285 | ||
| D | 3,070 | 1,640 | 5,340 | ||
| D | 2,036 | 339 | 2,908 | ||
| D | 1,173 | 78 | 1,728 | ||
| D | 1,171 | 170 | 1,600 | ||
| D | 880 | 219 | 1,354 | ||
| D | 999 | 145 | 1,401 | ||
| D | 954 | 249 | 1,284 | ||
| D | 1,161 | 0 | 1,238 | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
| D | 514 | 136 | 650 | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
| — | — | — | — |
Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
9.0%
Irish
7.9%
English
7.7%
American
7.3%
Italian
5.8%
Polish
2.2%
French
1.6%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 38.9 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$77,194
Congressional District 15 ranks near the middle of US counties.
Congressional District 15$77,194
Florida$74,568
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
12.5%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1815.4%
Working age (18–64)11.6%
Seniors (65+)13.6%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
71.4%
speak English only
Spanish21.2%
Other Indo-European4.0%
Asian & Pacific Islander2.3%
Other languages1.2%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 46.1% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Florida 15th Congressional District in the Gulf South and peninsula has, for decades, voted very close to the way the country has voted. Its margins are typically narrow, and the candidate who carries Florida 15th Congressional District more often than not also wins the national popular vote.
The Democratic margin in Florida 15th Congressional District has rarely exceeded ninety-four points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded forty-two points. 2024 delivered the district to the Republican candidate by eight points.
Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most districts. A 54% non-Hispanic-white share, a 13% poverty rate, and a median household income of $77,194 — all within the broad national range.
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Congressional District 15, Florida — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/cd/1215/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did Congressional District 15, Florida vote in 2024?
In 2024, Congressional District 15, Florida voted Republican by 8.3 points (R+8), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 335,017 votes cast, 151,538 went Democratic and 179,474 went Republican.
What is Congressional District 15, Florida's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Congressional District 15, Florida as a "Bellwether" district based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 23 times, Republican 12 times, and other 0 times.
When did Congressional District 15, Florida last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Congressional District 15, Florida voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Congressional District 15, Florida?
Congressional District 15, Florida has a population of 737,372 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Congressional District 15, Florida?
Median household income in Congressional District 15, Florida is $77,194 — below the national median of $80,734. The Florida state median is $74,568.
What is the political history of Congressional District 15, Florida?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Congressional District 15, Florida from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 23 went Democratic and 12 went Republican. The district's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.