New York 4th Congressional District, New York: Bellwether district. In 2024, voted R+4%. Republican peak: R+57 in 1920.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+4MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- BellwetherAkashic typology
- Population
- 592,4252024 5-year
- Median household income
- $146,1902024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 56.8%2024 5-year
- Black
- 11.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 18.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+21 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+57 in 1920MIT Election Lab
Constituent county margins for Congressional District 4, NYOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
R+60D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 144,274 | 156,922 | 305,086 | ||
| D | 169,037 | 139,273 | 311,619 | ||
| D | 141,605 | 124,482 | 275,868 | ||
| D | 129,046 | 110,535 | 242,203 | ||
| D | 145,879 | 123,098 | 270,962 | ||
| D | 137,729 | 122,919 | 263,597 | ||
| D | 145,894 | 96,790 | 251,701 | ||
| D | 129,422 | 83,899 | 232,187 | ||
| D | 120,472 | 105,240 | 259,751 | ||
| R | 106,633 | 143,840 | 252,544 | ||
| R | 102,613 | 167,111 | 270,298 | ||
| R | 88,503 | 142,195 | 254,080 | ||
| R | 129,116 | 140,323 | 271,021 | ||
| R | 107,785 | 187,026 | 295,439 | ||
| R | 118,773 | 140,588 | 274,198 | ||
| D | 163,105 | 106,101 | 269,478 | ||
| R | 112,254 | 138,231 | 250,810 | ||
| R | 71,048 | 158,740 | 229,788 | ||
| R | 55,542 | 130,411 | 186,774 | ||
| R | 30,060 | 78,567 | 113,089 | ||
| R | 33,480 | 68,095 | 101,821 | ||
| R | 31,203 | 61,256 | 92,651 | ||
| R | 31,657 | 40,488 | 73,671 | ||
| R | 26,334 | 33,486 | 61,442 | ||
| R | 17,093 | 30,278 | 48,243 | ||
| R | 6,108 | 19,538 | 27,729 | ||
| R | 3,665 | 14,113 | 18,477 | ||
| R | 3,595 | 5,931 | 9,617 | ||
| D | 3,016 | 1,965 | 7,908 | ||
| R | 2,082 | 4,173 | 6,620 | ||
| R | 2,252 | 3,505 | 5,841 | ||
| R | 1,844 | 2,982 | 4,886 | ||
| O | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||
| O | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
| — | — | — | — |
Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
Italian
16.4%
Irish
11.6%
German
6.9%
American
3.7%
Polish
3.5%
English
2.3%
French
0.6%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 42.0 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$146,190
Congressional District 4 ranks near the middle of US counties.
Congressional District 4$146,190
New York$85,974
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
5.4%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 185.7%
Working age (18–64)5.0%
Seniors (65+)8.1%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
69.3%
speak English only
Spanish13.7%
Other Indo-European9.9%
Asian & Pacific Islander5.6%
Other languages1.5%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 35.6% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
New York 4th Congressional District in the Mid-Atlantic has, for decades, voted very close to the way the country has voted. Its margins are typically narrow, and the candidate who carries New York 4th Congressional District more often than not also wins the national popular vote.
The Democratic margin in New York 4th Congressional District has rarely exceeded twenty-one points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded fifty-seven points. 2024 delivered the district to the Republican candidate by four points.
Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most districts. A 57% non-Hispanic-white share, a 5% poverty rate, and a median household income of $146,190 — all within the broad national range.
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Congressional District 4, New York — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/cd/3604/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did Congressional District 4, New York vote in 2024?
In 2024, Congressional District 4, New York voted Republican by 4.1 points (R+4), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 305,086 votes cast, 144,274 went Democratic and 156,922 went Republican.
What is Congressional District 4, New York's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Congressional District 4, New York as a "Bellwether" district based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 10 times, Republican 22 times, and other 2 times.
When did Congressional District 4, New York last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Congressional District 4, New York voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Congressional District 4, New York?
Congressional District 4, New York has a population of 592,425 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Congressional District 4, New York?
Median household income in Congressional District 4, New York is $146,190 — above the national median of $80,734. The New York state median is $85,974.
What is the political history of Congressional District 4, New York?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Congressional District 4, New York from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 10 went Democratic and 22 went Republican. The district's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.