Montana 21st State Senate District, Montana: Bellwether district. In 2024, voted R+15%. Democratic peak: D+21 in 2008.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+15MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- BellwetherAkashic typology
- Population
- 20,5602024 5-year
- Median household income
- $61,3892024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 46.3%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 5.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+21 in 2008MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+15 in 2024MIT Election Lab
Constituent county margins for State Senate District 21, MTOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
R+60D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
5 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 3,291 | 4,526 | 8,106 | ||
| R | 3,766 | 4,561 | 8,517 | ||
| R | 3,058 | 3,849 | 7,480 | ||
| D | 4,120 | 3,555 | 7,842 | ||
| D | 5,096 | 3,311 | 8,589 |
Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
13.9%
Irish
6.6%
English
6.2%
American
3.6%
French
1.0%
Scottish
0.9%
Italian
0.9%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 34.5 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$61,389
State Senate District 21 ranks near the middle of US counties.
State Senate District 21$61,389
Montana$72,509
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
19.6%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1824.9%
Working age (18–64)17.4%
Seniors (65+)15.2%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
83.8%
speak English only
Other languages13.9%
Spanish1.1%
Other Indo-European0.8%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.4%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 58.5% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
With a 2024 presidential margin of R+58.9, this sparsely populated district of roughly 20,000 residents ranks among the most lopsided in the state, reflecting the deep rural conservatism of Montana's interior.
The Democratic margin in Montana 21st State Senate District has rarely exceeded twenty-one points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded fifteen points. 2024 delivered the district to the Republican candidate by fifteen points.
Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most districts. A 46% non-Hispanic-white share, a 20% poverty rate, and a median household income of $61,389 — all within the broad national range.
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
State Senate District 21, Montana — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/sld-upper/30021/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did State Senate District 21, Montana vote in 2024?
In 2024, State Senate District 21, Montana voted Republican by 15.2 points (R+15), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 8,106 votes cast, 3,291 went Democratic and 4,526 went Republican.
What is State Senate District 21, Montana's political archetype?
Akashic classifies State Senate District 21, Montana as a "Bellwether" district based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 5 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 2 times, Republican 3 times, and other 0 times.
When did State Senate District 21, Montana last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which State Senate District 21, Montana voted Democratic was 2012.
How many people live in State Senate District 21, Montana?
State Senate District 21, Montana has a population of 20,560 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in State Senate District 21, Montana?
Median household income in State Senate District 21, Montana is $61,389 — below the national median of $80,734. The Montana state median is $72,509.
What is the political history of State Senate District 21, Montana?
Akashic tracks 5 presidential elections in State Senate District 21, Montana from 2008 to 2024. Of those, 2 went Democratic and 3 went Republican. The district's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.