Montana 40th State Senate District, Montana: Bellwether district. In 2024, voted R+7%. Republican peak: R+8 in 2016.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+7MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- BellwetherAkashic typology
- Population
- 21,8272024 5-year
- Median household income
- $78,6972024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 90.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 4.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+6 in 2008MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+8 in 2016MIT Election Lab
Constituent county margins for State Senate District 40, MTOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
R+60D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
5 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 5,634 | 6,464 | 12,530 | ||
| R | 5,829 | 6,435 | 12,659 | ||
| R | 4,278 | 5,076 | 10,513 | ||
| R | 4,621 | 5,044 | 9,932 | ||
| D | 5,067 | 4,489 | 9,841 |
Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
23.5%
Irish
16.0%
English
15.5%
American
5.8%
Italian
3.5%
French
3.1%
Scottish
3.0%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 41.9 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$78,697
State Senate District 40 ranks near the middle of US counties.
State Senate District 40$78,697
Montana$72,509
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
8.0%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 185.7%
Working age (18–64)8.5%
Seniors (65+)9.9%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
97.2%
speak English only
Other Indo-European1.2%
Spanish0.9%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.6%
Other languages0.1%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 65.4% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
With a 2024 presidential margin of R+66.4, this sparsely populated district ranks among the most one-sided in the state. Its small electorate of roughly 22,000 residents reflects the rural, low-density character typical of eastern Montana.
The Democratic margin in Montana 40th State Senate District has rarely exceeded six points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded eight points. 2024 delivered the district to the Republican candidate by seven points.
Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most districts. A 91% non-Hispanic-white share, a 8% poverty rate, and a median household income of $78,697 — all within the broad national range.
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
State Senate District 40, Montana — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/sld-upper/30040/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did State Senate District 40, Montana vote in 2024?
In 2024, State Senate District 40, Montana voted Republican by 6.6 points (R+7), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 12,530 votes cast, 5,634 went Democratic and 6,464 went Republican.
What is State Senate District 40, Montana's political archetype?
Akashic classifies State Senate District 40, Montana as a "Bellwether" district based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 5 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 1 times, Republican 4 times, and other 0 times.
When did State Senate District 40, Montana last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which State Senate District 40, Montana voted Democratic was 2008.
How many people live in State Senate District 40, Montana?
State Senate District 40, Montana has a population of 21,827 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in State Senate District 40, Montana?
Median household income in State Senate District 40, Montana is $78,697 — below the national median of $80,734. The Montana state median is $72,509.
What is the political history of State Senate District 40, Montana?
Akashic tracks 5 presidential elections in State Senate District 40, Montana from 2008 to 2024. Of those, 1 went Democratic and 4 went Republican. The district's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.