New York 38th State Senate District, New York: Bellwether district. In 2024, voted R+12%. Republican peak: R+12 in 2024.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+12MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- BellwetherAkashic typology
- Population
- 323,5162024 5-year
- Median household income
- $109,9592024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 62.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 10.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 20.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+7 in 2012MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+12 in 2024MIT Election Lab
Constituent county margins for State Senate District 38, NYOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
R+60D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
5 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 62,341 | 79,055 | 142,010 | ||
| D | 71,730 | 69,254 | 142,291 | ||
| D | 65,617 | 57,639 | 127,830 | ||
| D | 62,258 | 54,343 | 117,949 | ||
| D | 65,807 | 58,434 | 125,091 |
Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
Irish
10.0%
Italian
8.7%
American
7.9%
German
4.9%
Polish
4.7%
English
2.3%
French
0.6%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 34.8 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$109,959
State Senate District 38 ranks near the middle of US counties.
State Senate District 38$109,959
New York$85,974
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
16.2%
Children face higher poverty than working-age adults.
Children under 1826.1%
Working age (18–64)12.5%
Seniors (65+)8.4%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
55.8%
speak English only
Other Indo-European23.1%
Spanish15.2%
Asian & Pacific Islander3.7%
Other languages2.2%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 35.6% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
New York 38th State Senate District in the Mid-Atlantic has, for decades, voted very close to the way the country has voted. Its margins are typically narrow, and the candidate who carries New York 38th State Senate District more often than not also wins the national popular vote.
The Democratic margin in New York 38th State Senate District has rarely exceeded seven points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded twelve points. 2024 delivered the district to the Republican candidate by twelve points.
Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most districts. A 62% non-Hispanic-white share, a 16% poverty rate, and a median household income of $109,959 — all within the broad national range.
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
State Senate District 38, New York — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/sld-upper/36038/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did State Senate District 38, New York vote in 2024?
In 2024, State Senate District 38, New York voted Republican by 11.8 points (R+12), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 142,010 votes cast, 62,341 went Democratic and 79,055 went Republican.
What is State Senate District 38, New York's political archetype?
Akashic classifies State Senate District 38, New York as a "Bellwether" district based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 5 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 4 times, Republican 1 times, and other 0 times.
When did State Senate District 38, New York last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which State Senate District 38, New York voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in State Senate District 38, New York?
State Senate District 38, New York has a population of 323,516 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in State Senate District 38, New York?
Median household income in State Senate District 38, New York is $109,959 — above the national median of $80,734. The New York state median is $85,974.
What is the political history of State Senate District 38, New York?
Akashic tracks 5 presidential elections in State Senate District 38, New York from 2008 to 2024. Of those, 4 went Democratic and 1 went Republican. The district's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.