akashic
1876–2024
State Senate District 51·New York

New York 51st State Senate District delivered R+10 in 2024.

One of New York's most reliably Republican state senate seats

2008 — 2024·5 elections
NY
Latest
R+10
in 2024
Archetype
Bellwether
since the recent cycles
Population
322,945
2024 ACS

New York 51st State Senate District, New York: Bellwether district. In 2024, voted R+10%. Republican peak: R+12 in 2016.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
R+10MIT Election Lab
Political archetype
BellwetherAkashic typology
Population
322,9452024 5-year
Median household income
$70,5992024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
81.8%2024 5-year
Black
4.5%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
9.2%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+6 in 2008MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+12 in 2016MIT Election Lab
2024 results by constituent county
7 counties · 2 D · 5 R
R+60
D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
5 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
R
−10.3%
70,16286,318157,309
R
−6.7%
71,11881,591155,938
R
−12.3%
56,28773,242138,403
D
+3.6%
66,22661,469130,588
D
+5.6%
74,20866,143142,943

Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
Irish
16.1%
German
15.4%
English
11.7%
Italian
11.6%
American
5.6%
Polish
4.2%
French
1.4%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 43.1 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
1.0%
85+
1.5%
3.0%
75–84
3.5%
6.3%
65–74
6.4%
7.4%
55–64
7.3%
6.0%
45–54
5.6%
5.8%
35–44
5.6%
5.8%
25–34
5.3%
5.6%
18–24
5.7%
6.9%
5–17
6.5%
2.4%
<5
2.3%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$70,599
State Senate District 51 ranks near the middle of US counties.
State Senate District 51$70,599
New York$85,974
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
14.4%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1817.5%
Working age (18–64)13.9%
Seniors (65+)10.6%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
88.9%
speak English only
Spanish5.5%
Other Indo-European4.0%
Asian & Pacific Islander1.1%
Other languages0.5%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
15.3%
Other Christian
5.0%
Methodist
4.4%
Non-Christian
3.5%
Mainline Protestant
3.3%
Pentecostal & Holiness
1.2%
Baptist
0.9%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 66.5% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

District 51 delivered a 21-point Republican presidential margin in 2024, making it an outlier in a state that trends heavily Democratic statewide. Its conservative lean reflects a largely rural and small-city electorate outside the major metro corridors.

The Democratic margin in New York 51st State Senate District has rarely exceeded six points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded twelve points. 2024 delivered the district to the Republican candidate by ten points.

Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most districts. A 82% non-Hispanic-white share, a 14% poverty rate, and a median household income of $70,599 — all within the broad national range.

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
State Senate District 51, New York — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/sld-upper/36051/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did State Senate District 51, New York vote in 2024?
In 2024, State Senate District 51, New York voted Republican by 10.3 points (R+10), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 157,309 votes cast, 70,162 went Democratic and 86,318 went Republican.
What is State Senate District 51, New York's political archetype?
Akashic classifies State Senate District 51, New York as a "Bellwether" district based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 5 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 2 times, Republican 3 times, and other 0 times.
When did State Senate District 51, New York last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which State Senate District 51, New York voted Democratic was 2012.
How many people live in State Senate District 51, New York?
State Senate District 51, New York has a population of 322,945 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in State Senate District 51, New York?
Median household income in State Senate District 51, New York is $70,599 — below the national median of $80,734. The New York state median is $85,974.
What is the political history of State Senate District 51, New York?
Akashic tracks 5 presidential elections in State Senate District 51, New York from 2008 to 2024. Of those, 2 went Democratic and 3 went Republican. The district's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.