Arizona, Arizona: Bellwether state. In 2024, voted R+6%. Democratic peak: D+43 in 1936.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+6MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- BellwetherAkashic typology
- Population
- 7,378,8382024 5-year
- Median household income
- $79,9642024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 59.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 4.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 31.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+43 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+34 in 1984MIT Election Lab
Constituent county margins for Arizona, AZOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
R+60D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 1,582,860 | 1,770,242 | 3,400,274 | ||
| D | 1,672,143 | 1,661,686 | 3,397,388 | ||
| R | 1,161,167 | 1,252,401 | 2,604,657 | ||
| R | 1,025,232 | 1,233,654 | 2,306,559 | ||
| R | 1,034,707 | 1,230,111 | 2,293,475 | ||
| R | 893,524 | 1,104,294 | 2,016,102 | ||
| R | 685,341 | 781,652 | 1,534,113 | ||
| D | 653,288 | 622,073 | 1,404,405 | ||
| R | 543,050 | 572,086 | 1,487,006 | ||
| R | 454,029 | 702,541 | 1,171,873 | ||
| R | 333,854 | 681,416 | 1,025,897 | ||
| R | 246,843 | 529,688 | 873,945 | ||
| R | 295,602 | 418,642 | 742,719 | ||
| R | 198,540 | 402,812 | 653,505 | ||
| R | 170,514 | 266,721 | 486,936 | ||
| R | 237,461 | 241,420 | 479,362 | ||
| R | 176,408 | 220,742 | 397,616 | ||
| R | 112,880 | 176,990 | 290,173 | ||
| R | 108,528 | 152,042 | 260,570 | ||
| D | 95,251 | 77,597 | 177,065 | ||
| D | 80,926 | 56,287 | 137,634 | ||
| D | 95,267 | 54,030 | 150,039 | ||
| D | 86,722 | 33,433 | 124,163 | ||
| D | 79,264 | 36,104 | 118,251 | ||
| R | 38,537 | 52,533 | 91,254 | ||
| R | 26,235 | 30,516 | 73,691 | ||
| R | 29,546 | 37,016 | 66,562 | ||
| D | 33,170 | 20,524 | 57,921 | ||
| O | 10,324 | 3,021 | 23,722 | ||
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Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
12.6%
English
10.2%
Irish
8.9%
Italian
4.1%
American
4.0%
Polish
1.9%
French
1.5%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 39.3 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$79,964
Arizona ranks near the middle of US counties.
Arizona$79,964
Arizona$79,964
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
12.5%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1816.3%
Working age (18–64)11.6%
Seniors (65+)10.8%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
74.2%
speak English only
Spanish19.3%
Other languages2.3%
Asian & Pacific Islander2.1%
Other Indo-European2.0%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 56.0% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Arizona in the desert Southwest has, for decades, voted very close to the way the country has voted. Its margins are typically narrow, and the candidate who carries Arizona more often than not also wins the national popular vote.
The Democratic margin in Arizona has rarely exceeded forty-three points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded thirty-four points. 2024 delivered the state to the Republican candidate by six points.
Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most states. A 59% non-Hispanic-white share, a 13% poverty rate, and a median household income of $79,964 — all within the broad national range.
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Arizona, Arizona — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/state/az/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did Arizona, Arizona vote in 2024?
In 2024, Arizona, Arizona voted Republican by 5.5 points (R+6), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 3,400,274 votes cast, 1,582,860 went Democratic and 1,770,242 went Republican.
What is Arizona, Arizona's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Arizona, Arizona as a "Bellwether" state based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the state has voted Democratic 8 times, Republican 20 times, and other 1 times.
When did Arizona, Arizona last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Arizona, Arizona voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Arizona, Arizona?
Arizona, Arizona has a population of 7,378,838 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Arizona, Arizona?
Median household income in Arizona, Arizona is $79,964 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Arizona, Arizona?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Arizona, Arizona from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 8 went Democratic and 20 went Republican. The state's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.