akashic
1876–2024
Pennsylvania·Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania delivered R+2 in 2024 — close enough to flip again next time.

1876 — 2024·38 elections
PA
Latest
R+2
in 2024
Archetype
Tossup
since the recent cycles
Population
13,018,639
2024 ACS

Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania: Tossup state. In 2024, voted R+2%. Republican peak: R+46 in 1924.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
R+2MIT Election Lab
Political archetype
TossupAkashic typology
Population
13,018,6392024 5-year
Median household income
$77,9712024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
74.5%2024 5-year
Black
10.7%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
8.7%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+30 in 1964MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+46 in 1924MIT Election Lab
2024 results by constituent county
67 counties · 9 D · 58 R
R+60
D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
R
−1.7%
3,423,0423,543,3087,058,269
D
+1.2%
3,458,2293,377,6746,915,283
R
−0.7%
2,926,4582,970,7426,166,938
D
+5.4%
2,990,2742,680,4345,755,620
D
+10.3%
3,276,3632,655,8855,995,137
D
+2.5%
2,938,0952,793,8475,766,120
D
+4.2%
2,485,9672,281,1274,913,027
D
+9.2%
2,215,8191,801,1694,501,307
D
+9.0%
2,239,1641,791,8414,959,810
R
−2.3%
2,194,9442,300,0874,536,251
R
−7.4%
2,228,1312,584,3234,844,903
R
−7.1%
1,937,5402,261,8724,561,501
D
+2.7%
2,328,6772,205,6044,620,787
R
−20.0%
1,796,9512,714,5214,592,106
D
+3.6%
2,259,4052,090,0174,747,928
D
+30.2%
3,130,9541,673,6574,822,690
D
+2.3%
2,556,2822,439,9565,006,541
R
−13.2%
1,981,7692,585,2524,576,503
R
−5.9%
2,146,2692,415,7894,580,969
R
−4.0%
1,752,4261,902,1973,735,348
D
+2.8%
1,940,4791,835,0543,794,793
D
+6.9%
2,171,0351,889,8484,078,714
D
+16.0%
2,353,9871,690,2004,138,436
R
−5.5%
1,295,9481,453,5402,859,124
R
−31.4%
1,067,5862,055,3823,150,612
R
−46.3%
409,1921,401,4812,144,719
R
−38.6%
503,8431,218,2161,852,616
R
−14.0%
521,784703,8231,297,292
O
+10.0%
395,637273,3601,217,736
R
−23.4%
448,782745,7791,267,450
R
−40.7%
337,998840,9491,236,738
R
−24.6%
424,232712,6651,173,210
R
−24.7%
433,228728,3001,194,355
R
−6.4%
452,264516,0111,003,010
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Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
21.6%
Irish
14.8%
Italian
10.6%
English
8.3%
Polish
5.4%
American
4.4%
Scottish
1.1%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 41.2 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.8%
85+
1.6%
2.5%
75–84
3.2%
5.4%
65–74
6.0%
6.7%
55–64
6.9%
6.0%
45–54
6.0%
6.3%
35–44
6.2%
6.6%
25–34
6.4%
4.5%
18–24
4.4%
7.8%
5–17
7.4%
2.7%
<5
2.5%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$77,971
Pennsylvania ranks near the middle of US counties.
Pennsylvania$77,971
Pennsylvania$77,971
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
11.7%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1815.6%
Working age (18–64)10.6%
Seniors (65+)11.6%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
87.6%
speak English only
Spanish5.6%
Other Indo-European3.8%
Asian & Pacific Islander2.2%
Other languages0.9%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
22.3%
Other Christian
7.9%
Mainline Protestant
6.6%
Methodist
3.8%
Non-Christian
2.5%
Baptist
2.0%
Pentecostal & Holiness
1.7%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 53.1% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Pennsylvania in the Mid-Atlantic delivered a near-tie in 2024, with the Republican candidate carrying the state by two points — well within the historical noise of how the state votes.

The state's recent history is a story of close margins. The Democratic margin reached thirty points in 1964; the Republican margin reached forty-six points in 1924. Most other elections have been decided by single-digit points.

Its demographics — a population of 13,018,639, a 75% non-Hispanic-white share, a median household income of $77,971 — situate the state close to national averages on several dimensions.

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/state/pa/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
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Bedford County
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Bellwether

Frequently asked questions

How did Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania vote in 2024?
In 2024, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania voted Republican by 1.7 points (R+2), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 7,058,269 votes cast, 3,423,042 went Democratic and 3,543,308 went Republican.
What is Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania as a "Tossup" state based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the state has voted Democratic 14 times, Republican 19 times, and other 1 times.
When did Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania?
Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania has a population of 13,018,639 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania?
Median household income in Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania is $77,971 — below the national median of $80,734. The Pennsylvania state median is $77,971.
What is the political history of Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 14 went Democratic and 19 went Republican. The state's archetype — "Tossup" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.