akashic
1876–2024
Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL·Illinois

Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL votes the way the country votes.

Quad Cities metro spans two states and a persistent swing-county tradition

1876 — 2024·38 elections
IL
Latest
R+3
in 2024
Archetype
Bellwether
since the recent cycles
Population
381,503
2024 ACS

Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL, Illinois: Bellwether metro. In 2024, voted R+3%. Republican peak: R+51 in 1920.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
R+3MIT Election Lab
Political archetype
BellwetherAkashic typology
Population
381,5032024 5-year
Median household income
$73,1392024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
78.0%2024 5-year
Black
7.7%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
9.7%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+21 in 1964MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+51 in 1920MIT Election Lab
2024 results by constituent county
4 counties · 1 D · 3 R
R+60
D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
R
−3.1%
88,78194,611187,029
D
+1.9%
96,69493,004194,161
R
−0.1%
84,68084,939184,448
D
+14.9%
106,64878,644188,453
D
+17.2%
109,20576,825188,405
D
+6.0%
98,39187,238186,909
D
+10.5%
90,13572,579167,451
D
+15.7%
82,99558,458155,951
D
+12.4%
86,24464,028179,612
D
+10.3%
90,38773,478164,913
R
−2.8%
87,41992,566181,073
R
−12.3%
67,77489,139173,063
R
−4.1%
79,67786,693169,117
R
−14.7%
68,18491,931161,910
R
−1.8%
70,70073,555156,489
D
+21.4%
89,78058,066147,930
R
−6.2%
70,66480,030150,876
R
−15.3%
59,43280,935140,701
R
−19.9%
56,92385,369142,927
R
−3.5%
52,80956,664110,723
D
+0.2%
61,47161,201123,082
D
+3.7%
70,54765,440136,583
D
+17.0%
69,71949,159121,150
D
+4.3%
55,99451,235110,038
R
−29.0%
35,45064,585100,614
R
−49.8%
11,62157,70092,489
R
−50.7%
14,78556,05181,443
R
−23.0%
24,77641,21271,520
O
+15.5%
13,4506,78043,127
R
−21.9%
14,86024,29943,159
R
−38.0%
9,86325,50241,182
R
−24.1%
14,86224,82241,329
R
−23.7%
14,02423,03938,000
D
+0.3%
14,88414,78631,300
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Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
24.8%
Irish
13.1%
English
10.1%
American
3.8%
Italian
2.6%
Polish
1.8%
Scottish
1.7%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 40.5 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.8%
85+
1.5%
2.5%
75–84
3.2%
5.4%
65–74
5.9%
6.4%
55–64
6.5%
6.0%
45–54
5.8%
6.5%
35–44
6.3%
6.0%
25–34
6.0%
4.3%
18–24
4.1%
8.6%
5–17
8.4%
2.8%
<5
2.8%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$73,139
Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL ranks near the middle of US counties.
Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL$73,139
Illinois$75,059
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
12.6%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1816.8%
Working age (18–64)11.5%
Seniors (65+)9.6%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
90.9%
speak English only
Spanish4.6%
Other Indo-European1.9%
Asian & Pacific Islander1.4%
Other languages1.1%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
13.3%
Mainline Protestant
9.0%
Other Christian
5.2%
Methodist
3.5%
Baptist
3.2%
Pentecostal & Holiness
1.7%
Non-Christian
1.1%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 63.1% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Straddling the Mississippi River across Iowa and Illinois, this metro has tracked closely with national presidential margins for decades, making it a reliable bellwether for Midwestern working-class voter shifts.

The Democratic margin in Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL has rarely exceeded twenty-one points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded fifty-one points. 2024 delivered the metro to the Republican candidate by three points.

Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most metros. A 78% non-Hispanic-white share, a 13% poverty rate, and a median household income of $73,139 — all within the broad national range.

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL, Illinois — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/cbsa/19340/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL, Illinois vote in 2024?
In 2024, Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL, Illinois voted Republican by 3.1 points (R+3), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 187,029 votes cast, 88,781 went Democratic and 94,611 went Republican.
What is Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL, Illinois's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL, Illinois as a "Bellwether" metro based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the metro has voted Democratic 14 times, Republican 19 times, and other 1 times.
When did Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL, Illinois last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL, Illinois voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL, Illinois?
Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL, Illinois has a population of 381,503 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL, Illinois?
Median household income in Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL, Illinois is $73,139 — below the national median of $80,734. The Illinois state median is $75,059.
What is the political history of Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL, Illinois?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL, Illinois from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 14 went Democratic and 19 went Republican. The metro's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.