Flagstaff, AZ, Arizona: Bellwether metro. In 2024, voted D+20%. Democratic peak: D+41 in 1932.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+20MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- BellwetherAkashic typology
- Population
- 144,5082024 5-year
- Median household income
- $72,9662024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 56.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 15.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+41 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+29 in 1968MIT Election Lab
Constituent county margins for Flagstaff, AZ, AZOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
R+60D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 41,504 | 27,576 | 70,067 | ||
| D | 44,698 | 27,052 | 73,632 | ||
| D | 32,404 | 21,108 | 59,784 | ||
| D | 29,257 | 21,220 | 51,962 | ||
| D | 31,433 | 22,186 | 54,344 | ||
| D | 29,243 | 22,526 | 52,391 | ||
| D | 20,280 | 17,562 | 40,883 | ||
| D | 20,475 | 13,638 | 38,522 | ||
| D | 18,888 | 13,769 | 42,618 | ||
| R | 14,660 | 16,649 | 32,140 | ||
| R | 11,528 | 17,581 | 29,735 | ||
| R | 7,832 | 14,613 | 26,199 | ||
| R | 9,450 | 11,036 | 21,418 | ||
| R | 6,250 | 10,611 | 17,389 | ||
| R | 3,504 | 6,765 | 11,392 | ||
| R | 5,270 | 5,756 | 11,037 | ||
| R | 4,065 | 4,870 | 8,944 | ||
| R | 2,314 | 4,044 | 6,369 | ||
| R | 2,408 | 3,827 | 6,235 | ||
| D | 2,309 | 2,093 | 4,441 | ||
| D | 2,236 | 1,786 | 4,028 | ||
| D | 3,025 | 1,913 | 4,951 | ||
| D | 2,578 | 1,140 | 3,829 | ||
| D | 2,689 | 1,110 | 3,853 | ||
| R | 1,172 | 1,717 | 2,901 | ||
| R | 711 | 1,045 | 2,317 | ||
| R | 781 | 1,342 | 2,123 | ||
| D | 1,171 | 802 | 2,072 | ||
| D | 339 | 237 | 855 | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
| — | — | — | — |
Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
13.4%
English
10.4%
Irish
9.4%
Italian
4.0%
American
2.6%
Scottish
2.2%
Polish
2.1%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 32.8 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$72,966
Flagstaff, AZ ranks near the middle of US counties.
Flagstaff, AZ$72,966
Arizona$79,964
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
16.8%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1817.7%
Working age (18–64)16.8%
Seniors (65+)13.4%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
77.9%
speak English only
Other languages13.0%
Spanish7.0%
Other Indo-European1.3%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.8%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 67.6% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Home to Northern Arizona University and a large Native American population from surrounding tribal lands, Flagstaff's Coconino County posts Democratic margins uncommon in rural Arizona, driven by student voters and reservation turnout patterns.
The Democratic margin in Flagstaff, AZ has rarely exceeded forty-one points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded twenty-nine points. 2024 delivered the metro to the Democratic candidate by twenty points.
Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most metros. A 56% non-Hispanic-white share, a 17% poverty rate, and a median household income of $72,966 — all within the broad national range.
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Flagstaff, AZ, Arizona — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/cbsa/22380/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did Flagstaff, AZ, Arizona vote in 2024?
In 2024, Flagstaff, AZ, Arizona voted Democratic by 19.9 points (D+20), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 70,067 votes cast, 41,504 went Democratic and 27,576 went Republican.
What is Flagstaff, AZ, Arizona's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Flagstaff, AZ, Arizona as a "Bellwether" metro based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the metro has voted Democratic 16 times, Republican 13 times, and other 0 times.
When did Flagstaff, AZ, Arizona last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Flagstaff, AZ, Arizona voted Republican was 1988.
How many people live in Flagstaff, AZ, Arizona?
Flagstaff, AZ, Arizona has a population of 144,508 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Flagstaff, AZ, Arizona?
Median household income in Flagstaff, AZ, Arizona is $72,966 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Flagstaff, AZ, Arizona?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Flagstaff, AZ, Arizona from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 16 went Democratic and 13 went Republican. The metro's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.