akashic
1876–2024
Gainesville, FL·Florida

Gainesville, FL votes the way the country votes.

A college-anchored metro where student enrollment shapes turnout math

1876 — 2024·38 elections
FL
Latest
D+5
in 2024
Archetype
Bellwether
since the recent cycles
Population
349,923
2024 ACS

Gainesville, FL, Florida: Bellwether metro. In 2024, voted D+5%. Democratic peak: D+84 in 1892.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
D+5MIT Election Lab
Political archetype
BellwetherAkashic typology
Population
349,9232024 5-year
Median household income
$61,3602024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
65.1%2024 5-year
Black
16.9%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
12.1%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+84 in 1892MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+19 in 1972MIT Election Lab
2024 results by constituent county
3 counties · 1 D · 2 R
R+60
D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
D
+5.3%
89,21280,104171,577
D
+12.5%
97,60975,616175,434
D
+9.6%
82,37967,349156,386
D
+7.5%
77,70366,768146,726
D
+12.1%
84,27265,923152,063
D
+5.5%
70,59563,108134,995
D
+10.0%
54,68844,298103,882
D
+17.2%
47,08431,55490,376
D
+17.2%
43,72928,00491,325
R
−4.6%
33,96737,26172,016
R
−10.8%
30,73838,22669,025
D
+13.8%
32,64624,10761,753
D
+29.5%
33,72718,03953,098
R
−19.2%
18,35427,11545,563
O
+1.3%
11,03510,59833,897
D
+9.9%
16,18013,27129,451
D
+3.3%
12,11611,34523,461
D
+3.4%
9,6359,01018,645
R
−3.8%
8,9929,69318,685
D
+23.2%
5,7572,67413,266
D
+62.8%
8,7241,99610,720
D
+71.2%
10,2521,72611,978
D
+74.2%
7,6271,1298,756
D
+67.3%
5,9411,1637,104
O
+28.4%
3,1549687,700
D
+49.2%
2,5197423,610
D
+46.1%
4,1921,4965,842
D
+59.4%
2,7426563,514
D
+61.2%
1,6792952,263
D
+28.4%
1,6508752,725
D
+39.8%
1,7036942,537
D
+57.6%
1,3463341,756
D
+40.1%
1,5456452,245
D
+84.3%
1,44701,717
—
No data
———
R
−0.7%
2,3962,4284,824
—
No data
———
—
No data
———

Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
English
12.6%
German
11.3%
Irish
10.5%
Italian
4.6%
American
4.2%
Scottish
3.0%
Polish
2.0%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 34.8 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.7%
85+
1.3%
2.4%
75–84
2.6%
4.6%
65–74
5.4%
5.2%
55–64
5.8%
4.9%
45–54
5.1%
5.7%
35–44
5.9%
7.0%
25–34
7.0%
8.9%
18–24
9.6%
6.8%
5–17
6.6%
2.4%
<5
2.4%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$61,360
Gainesville, FL ranks near the middle of US counties.
Gainesville, FL$61,360
Florida$74,568
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
20.2%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1818.5%
Working age (18–64)21.1%
Seniors (65+)13.4%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
85.2%
speak English only
Spanish7.7%
Other Indo-European3.6%
Asian & Pacific Islander2.9%
Other languages0.7%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Other Christian
14.7%
Baptist
10.6%
Catholic & Orthodox
8.6%
Methodist
4.8%
Pentecostal & Holiness
3.3%
Mainline Protestant
1.6%
Non-Christian
1.5%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 54.9% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Home to the University of Florida's 50,000-plus students, the Gainesville metro tilts Democratic in city precincts while surrounding Alachua County's rural edges pull the margin back toward statewide competitiveness.

The Democratic margin in Gainesville, FL has rarely exceeded eighty-four points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded nineteen points. 2024 delivered the metro to the Democratic candidate by five points.

Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most metros. A 65% non-Hispanic-white share, a 20% poverty rate, and a median household income of $61,360 — all within the broad national range.

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Gainesville, FL, Florida — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/cbsa/23540/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Gainesville, FL, Florida vote in 2024?
In 2024, Gainesville, FL, Florida voted Democratic by 5.3 points (D+5), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 171,577 votes cast, 89,212 went Democratic and 80,104 went Republican.
What is Gainesville, FL, Florida's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Gainesville, FL, Florida as a "Bellwether" metro based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the metro has voted Democratic 28 times, Republican 5 times, and other 2 times.
When did Gainesville, FL, Florida last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Gainesville, FL, Florida voted Republican was 1988.
How many people live in Gainesville, FL, Florida?
Gainesville, FL, Florida has a population of 349,923 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Gainesville, FL, Florida?
Median household income in Gainesville, FL, Florida is $61,360 — below the national median of $80,734. The Florida state median is $74,568.
What is the political history of Gainesville, FL, Florida?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Gainesville, FL, Florida from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 28 went Democratic and 5 went Republican. The metro's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.