Congressional District 1 Congressional District (AZ) — Elections 1876–2024

Arizona 1st Congressional District, Arizona: Bellwether district. In 2024, voted R+3%. Republican peak: R+45 in 1984.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: R+3MIT Election Lab
Political archetype: BellwetherAkashic typology
Population: 797,7032024 5-year
Median household income: $89,3002024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 58.6%2024 5-year
Black: 5.7%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 31.2%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+39 in 1936MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+45 in 1984MIT Election Lab

2024 results by constituent county

3 counties · 0 D · 3 R

R+60

D+60

One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.

38 presidential elections

Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
Year	Won	Margin	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	R	−3.5%	171,448	183,960	360,661
2020	D	+2.2%	182,078	174,186	363,200
2016	R	−2.8%	122,970	130,747	274,284
2012	R	−10.7%	105,367	131,188	241,591
2008	R	−10.6%	105,346	130,587	238,793
2004	R	−14.6%	88,321	118,867	209,052
2000	R	−10.3%	67,648	83,968	157,748
1996	R	−2.7%	63,678	67,531	143,006
1992	R	−8.5%	49,939	62,989	153,397
1988	R	−31.0%	40,404	77,384	119,228
1984	R	−44.9%	27,087	72,060	100,116
1980	R	−40.4%	20,950	55,333	85,169
1976	R	−27.1%	25,299	45,182	73,274
1972	R	−42.3%	16,643	42,790	61,756
1968	R	−27.7%	15,081	28,387	48,049
1964	R	−7.9%	21,351	25,037	46,418
1960	R	−18.8%	15,191	22,234	37,449
1956	R	−26.1%	9,449	16,120	25,602
1952	R	−21.1%	8,797	13,514	22,312
1948	D	+5.0%	7,085	6,400	13,820
1944	D	+12.8%	5,633	4,348	10,017
1940	D	+21.4%	6,133	3,956	10,161
1936	D	+38.6%	5,604	2,392	8,329
1932	D	+30.5%	5,004	2,639	7,747
1928	R	−24.6%	2,125	3,515	5,646
1924	R	−6.0%	1,606	1,856	4,157
1920	R	−12.4%	1,544	1,983	3,527
1916	D	+12.9%	1,336	1,005	2,561
1912	D	+34.7%	456	112	992
1908	—	No data	—	—	—
1904	—	No data	—	—	—
1900	—	No data	—	—	—
1896	—	No data	—	—	—
1892	—	No data	—	—	—
1888	—	No data	—	—	—
1884	—	No data	—	—	—
1880	—	No data	—	—	—
1876	—	No data	—	—	—

Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry

Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.

German

12.4%

English

9.8%

Irish

8.8%

Italian

4.4%

American

4.2%

Polish

2.2%

French

1.7%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.

Age distribution by sex

Median age: 37.6 in this county, 39.1 nationally

Male

Age

Female

0.7%

85+

1.1%

2.4%

75–84

2.8%

4.3%

65–74

5.0%

5.7%

55–64

6.0%

6.1%

45–54

6.2%

6.8%

35–44

6.6%

7.5%

25–34

7.2%

4.8%

18–24

4.5%

8.6%

5–17

8.2%

2.9%

2.8%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

Median household income

2024 inflation-adjusted dollars

$89,300

Congressional District 1 ranks near the middle of US counties.

Congressional District 1$89,300

Arizona$79,964

United States$80,734

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

Poverty rate

All persons below federal poverty line

11.0%

Child poverty is below the national average.

Children under 1814.4%

Working age (18–64)9.9%

Seniors (65+)10.6%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

Language at home

Population aged 5 and older

74.0%

speak English only

Spanish19.4%

Asian & Pacific Islander2.7%

Other Indo-European2.4%

Other languages1.4%

Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.

Religious adherents

Adherents per capita by tradition

Catholic & Orthodox

23.4%

Other Christian

15.1%

Non-Christian

3.2%

Mainline Protestant

1.7%

Pentecostal & Holiness

1.7%

Baptist

1.6%

Methodist

0.5%

Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 52.8% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Arizona 1st Congressional District in the desert Southwest has, for decades, voted very close to the way the country has voted. Its margins are typically narrow, and the candidate who carries Arizona 1st Congressional District more often than not also wins the national popular vote.

The Democratic margin in Arizona 1st Congressional District has rarely exceeded thirty-nine points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded forty-five points. 2024 delivered the district to the Republican candidate by three points.

Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most districts. A 59% non-Hispanic-white share, a 11% poverty rate, and a median household income of $89,300 — all within the broad national range.

Cite this page

All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.

Congressional District 1, Arizona — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/cd/0401/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.

License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Congressional District 1, Arizona vote in 2024?

In 2024, Congressional District 1, Arizona voted Republican by 3.5 points (R+3), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 360,661 votes cast, 171,448 went Democratic and 183,960 went Republican.

What is Congressional District 1, Arizona's political archetype?

Akashic classifies Congressional District 1, Arizona as a "Bellwether" district based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 8 times, Republican 21 times, and other 0 times.

When did Congressional District 1, Arizona last vote Democratic?

The most recent presidential election in which Congressional District 1, Arizona voted Democratic was 2020.

How many people live in Congressional District 1, Arizona?

Congressional District 1, Arizona has a population of 797,703 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Congressional District 1, Arizona?

Median household income in Congressional District 1, Arizona is $89,300 — above the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.

What is the political history of Congressional District 1, Arizona?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Congressional District 1, Arizona from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 8 went Democratic and 21 went Republican. The district's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.

Arizona 1st Congressional District votes the way the country votes.

Key facts

Demographics

Frequently asked questions