Arizona 2nd Congressional District, Arizona: Bellwether district. In 2024, voted R+17%. Democratic peak: D+45 in 1936.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+17MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- BellwetherAkashic typology
- Population
- 978,0492024 5-year
- Median household income
- $70,2092024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 61.3%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 19.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+45 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+30 in 1980MIT Election Lab
Constituent county margins for Congressional District 2, AZOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
R+60D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 201,513 | 284,719 | 491,953 | ||
| R | 211,148 | 260,253 | 480,302 | ||
| R | 148,601 | 194,443 | 371,161 | ||
| R | 141,685 | 179,830 | 328,799 | ||
| R | 144,000 | 176,599 | 325,088 | ||
| R | 126,878 | 150,601 | 280,217 | ||
| R | 96,352 | 107,916 | 215,330 | ||
| D | 95,395 | 80,203 | 198,838 | ||
| D | 82,100 | 70,274 | 204,159 | ||
| R | 67,581 | 86,583 | 157,059 | ||
| R | 53,627 | 86,784 | 142,379 | ||
| R | 36,942 | 73,147 | 121,026 | ||
| R | 47,199 | 50,601 | 101,520 | ||
| R | 27,583 | 50,503 | 82,956 | ||
| R | 23,156 | 32,839 | 64,095 | ||
| D | 32,939 | 30,072 | 63,100 | ||
| R | 24,003 | 27,264 | 51,311 | ||
| R | 17,002 | 25,859 | 42,894 | ||
| R | 18,920 | 24,316 | 43,236 | ||
| D | 19,176 | 13,860 | 33,582 | ||
| D | 18,492 | 11,819 | 30,415 | ||
| D | 24,284 | 12,951 | 37,397 | ||
| D | 22,632 | 8,329 | 32,005 | ||
| D | 20,858 | 8,701 | 30,386 | ||
| R | 11,520 | 13,855 | 25,409 | ||
| R | 7,142 | 8,854 | 21,887 | ||
| R | 8,921 | 11,494 | 20,415 | ||
| D | 11,113 | 5,686 | 18,060 | ||
| O | 2,969 | 1,213 | 7,227 | ||
| — | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| — | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| — | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| — | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
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Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
13.8%
English
11.7%
Irish
10.0%
American
3.9%
Italian
3.6%
Scottish
1.8%
French
1.8%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 43.1 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$70,209
Congressional District 2 ranks near the middle of US counties.
Congressional District 2$70,209
Arizona$79,964
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
15.5%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1819.4%
Working age (18–64)14.6%
Seniors (65+)12.9%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
79.1%
speak English only
Spanish9.9%
Other languages8.8%
Other Indo-European1.2%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.9%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 60.2% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Arizona 2nd Congressional District in the desert Southwest has, for decades, voted very close to the way the country has voted. Its margins are typically narrow, and the candidate who carries Arizona 2nd Congressional District more often than not also wins the national popular vote.
The Democratic margin in Arizona 2nd Congressional District has rarely exceeded forty-five points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded thirty points. 2024 delivered the district to the Republican candidate by seventeen points.
Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most districts. A 61% non-Hispanic-white share, a 16% poverty rate, and a median household income of $70,209 — all within the broad national range.
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Congressional District 2, Arizona — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/cd/0402/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did Congressional District 2, Arizona vote in 2024?
In 2024, Congressional District 2, Arizona voted Republican by 16.9 points (R+17), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 491,953 votes cast, 201,513 went Democratic and 284,719 went Republican.
What is Congressional District 2, Arizona's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Congressional District 2, Arizona as a "Bellwether" district based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 9 times, Republican 19 times, and other 1 times.
When did Congressional District 2, Arizona last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Congressional District 2, Arizona voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Congressional District 2, Arizona?
Congressional District 2, Arizona has a population of 978,049 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Congressional District 2, Arizona?
Median household income in Congressional District 2, Arizona is $70,209 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Congressional District 2, Arizona?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Congressional District 2, Arizona from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 9 went Democratic and 19 went Republican. The district's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.