California 40th Congressional District, California: Bellwether district. In 2024, voted D+3%. Republican peak: R+60 in 1928.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+3MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- BellwetherAkashic typology
- Population
- 1,373,5502024 5-year
- Median household income
- $116,1432024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 42.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 34.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+39 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+60 in 1928MIT Election Lab
Constituent county margins for Congressional District 40, CAOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
R+60D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 299,784 | 283,895 | 603,068 | ||
| D | 352,834 | 293,213 | 659,748 | ||
| D | 264,364 | 219,801 | 519,005 | ||
| R | 222,152 | 252,217 | 486,455 | ||
| R | 238,189 | 250,828 | 499,876 | ||
| R | 181,659 | 277,957 | 465,820 | ||
| R | 169,769 | 234,330 | 420,464 | ||
| R | 141,901 | 193,366 | 374,423 | ||
| R | 133,028 | 184,661 | 421,190 | ||
| R | 116,561 | 253,716 | 374,635 | ||
| R | 89,377 | 274,725 | 367,908 | ||
| R | 76,537 | 229,174 | 337,599 | ||
| R | 100,567 | 176,705 | 284,435 | ||
| R | 76,582 | 193,898 | 284,113 | ||
| R | 64,502 | 136,234 | 215,873 | ||
| R | 76,534 | 97,019 | 173,740 | ||
| R | 48,584 | 75,759 | 124,648 | ||
| R | 23,863 | 49,230 | 73,731 | ||
| R | 14,181 | 33,675 | 48,215 | ||
| R | 12,643 | 21,101 | 34,708 | ||
| R | 12,466 | 16,666 | 29,309 | ||
| R | 12,286 | 15,654 | 28,241 | ||
| D | 12,966 | 10,204 | 23,569 | ||
| D | 10,352 | 9,825 | 21,400 | ||
| R | 3,310 | 13,274 | 16,733 | ||
| R | 1,114 | 8,638 | 12,835 | ||
| R | 1,526 | 5,559 | 7,778 | ||
| R | 2,818 | 4,611 | 8,154 | ||
| O | 1,917 | 0 | 4,972 | ||
| R | 832 | 1,413 | 2,630 | ||
| R | 450 | 1,161 | 1,950 | ||
| R | 773 | 939 | 1,832 | ||
| R | 746 | 842 | 1,649 | ||
| R | 437 | 505 | 1,267 | ||
| R | 5 | 6 | 12 | ||
| O | 3 | 3 | 6 | ||
| O | 1 | 1 | 3 | ||
| O | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
7.5%
English
7.3%
Irish
6.0%
American
4.5%
Italian
3.6%
French
1.4%
Polish
1.3%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 39.4 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$116,143
Congressional District 40 ranks near the middle of US counties.
Congressional District 40$116,143
California$99,122
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
9.5%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 1810.7%
Working age (18–64)8.9%
Seniors (65+)12.0%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
53.6%
speak English only
Spanish24.4%
Asian & Pacific Islander15.7%
Other Indo-European4.9%
Other languages1.4%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 50.5% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
California 40th Congressional District in the Pacific Coast has, for decades, voted very close to the way the country has voted. Its margins are typically narrow, and the candidate who carries California 40th Congressional District more often than not also wins the national popular vote.
The Democratic margin in California 40th Congressional District has rarely exceeded thirty-nine points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded sixty points. 2024 delivered the district to the Democratic candidate by three points.
Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most districts. A 43% non-Hispanic-white share, a 10% poverty rate, and a median household income of $116,143 — all within the broad national range.
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Congressional District 40, California — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/cd/0640/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did Congressional District 40, California vote in 2024?
In 2024, Congressional District 40, California voted Democratic by 2.6 points (D+3), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 603,068 votes cast, 299,784 went Democratic and 283,895 went Republican.
What is Congressional District 40, California's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Congressional District 40, California as a "Bellwether" district based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 5 times, Republican 29 times, and other 4 times.
When did Congressional District 40, California last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Congressional District 40, California voted Republican was 2012.
How many people live in Congressional District 40, California?
Congressional District 40, California has a population of 1,373,550 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Congressional District 40, California?
Median household income in Congressional District 40, California is $116,143 — above the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of Congressional District 40, California?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Congressional District 40, California from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 5 went Democratic and 29 went Republican. The district's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.