Buffalo, New York: Populist market. In 2024, voted R+6%. Republican peak: R+44 in 1924.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+6MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- PopulistAkashic typology
- Population
- 1,603,4312024 5-year
- Median household income
- $69,7272024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 79.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 9.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 5.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+41 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+44 in 1920MIT Election Lab
Constituent county margins for Buffalo, NYOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
R+60D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 357,533 | 401,895 | 768,075 | ||
| R | 381,423 | 390,985 | 787,513 | ||
| R | 305,836 | 362,254 | 704,552 | ||
| D | 352,185 | 316,170 | 681,000 | ||
| D | 386,574 | 333,269 | 731,660 | ||
| D | 377,015 | 351,697 | 743,912 | ||
| D | 364,853 | 308,999 | 711,520 | ||
| D | 344,935 | 241,835 | 682,327 | ||
| D | 293,791 | 240,859 | 747,478 | ||
| D | 354,960 | 340,962 | 701,170 | ||
| R | 340,865 | 406,908 | 749,704 | ||
| D | 326,396 | 306,291 | 691,459 | ||
| R | 352,287 | 378,799 | 735,865 | ||
| R | 322,660 | 439,338 | 764,545 | ||
| D | 363,185 | 306,937 | 722,775 | ||
| D | 535,902 | 223,249 | 760,222 | ||
| D | 408,951 | 390,610 | 800,246 | ||
| R | 250,897 | 502,503 | 753,495 | ||
| R | 293,682 | 452,805 | 748,031 | ||
| R | 290,475 | 317,857 | 624,980 | ||
| R | 293,057 | 339,931 | 635,193 | ||
| R | 286,815 | 351,338 | 640,072 | ||
| R | 281,133 | 298,327 | 592,053 | ||
| R | 206,996 | 277,619 | 503,360 | ||
| R | 189,618 | 307,190 | 514,042 | ||
| R | 74,210 | 240,162 | 375,085 | ||
| R | 75,014 | 214,487 | 319,731 | ||
| R | 83,906 | 117,896 | 210,835 | ||
| O | 65,234 | 52,473 | 186,077 | ||
| R | 82,848 | 120,553 | 212,347 | ||
| R | 67,640 | 120,446 | 197,798 | ||
| R | 78,652 | 111,212 | 196,482 | ||
| R | 67,400 | 108,158 | 180,993 | ||
| R | 68,364 | 82,890 | 164,811 | ||
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Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
21.5%
Irish
15.2%
Italian
13.4%
Polish
11.9%
English
9.7%
American
3.6%
French
1.7%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 41.4 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$69,727
Buffalo ranks near the middle of US counties.
Buffalo$69,727
New York$85,974
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
14.2%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1819.0%
Working age (18–64)13.1%
Seniors (65+)11.3%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
90.9%
speak English only
Other Indo-European3.5%
Spanish3.0%
Asian & Pacific Islander1.3%
Other languages1.3%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 43.2% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
The Buffalo media market blends a revitalizing urban center with rural and small-city counties that lean differently, making it a reliable bellwether for statewide margin tracking across western New York.
The Democratic margin in Buffalo peaked at forty-one points in 1964. By 2016 the market had flipped, voting Republican for the first time in many years. The 2024 margin was six points, the most Republican-leaning result in the market's modern history.
The economic context is the key. The median household income of $69,727 sits well below state and national norms, and 14% of residents live below the federal poverty line. The shift here is part of a broader realignment of working-class places across the country.
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Buffalo, New York — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/dma/514/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did Buffalo, New York vote in 2024?
In 2024, Buffalo, New York voted Republican by 5.8 points (R+6), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 768,075 votes cast, 357,533 went Democratic and 401,895 went Republican.
What is Buffalo, New York's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Buffalo, New York as a "Populist" market based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the market has voted Democratic 11 times, Republican 22 times, and other 1 times.
When did Buffalo, New York last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Buffalo, New York voted Democratic was 2012.
How many people live in Buffalo, New York?
Buffalo, New York has a population of 1,603,431 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Buffalo, New York?
Median household income in Buffalo, New York is $69,727 — below the national median of $80,734. The New York state median is $85,974.
What is the political history of Buffalo, New York?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Buffalo, New York from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 11 went Democratic and 22 went Republican. The market's archetype — "Populist" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.