akashic
1876–2024
Rochester, NY·New York

Rochester, NY delivered D+10 in 2024.

A mid-size upstate market where city-suburban splits drive Monroe County's swing potential.

1876 — 2024·38 elections
NY
Latest
D+10
in 2024
Archetype
Bellwether
since the recent cycles
Population
1,043,331
2024 ACS

Rochester, NY, New York: Bellwether market. In 2024, voted D+10%. Republican peak: R+41 in 1920.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
D+10MIT Election Lab
Political archetype
BellwetherAkashic typology
Population
1,043,3312024 5-year
Median household income
$76,5632024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
75.0%2024 5-year
Black
10.8%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
8.6%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+40 in 1964MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+41 in 1920MIT Election Lab
2024 results by constituent county
5 counties · 1 D · 4 R
R+60
D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
D
+9.7%
277,882228,325511,445
D
+12.1%
288,647225,037525,835
D
+6.2%
238,654208,941480,101
D
+11.6%
249,416196,488455,425
D
+11.5%
269,203212,971488,918
R
−3.0%
226,081240,291475,053
D
+0.7%
210,919207,661439,385
D
+12.0%
214,093163,674421,895
R
−1.3%
181,322187,523461,470
R
−4.8%
196,963217,156417,574
R
−21.2%
164,722254,130420,776
D
+0.8%
181,348178,036405,589
R
−13.5%
173,376227,585402,993
R
−28.4%
148,235266,311415,466
R
−6.2%
171,210194,958382,172
D
+40.0%
262,341112,327374,990
R
−9.6%
173,279209,940383,418
R
−38.8%
111,385252,437363,822
R
−25.4%
133,828225,115359,570
R
−8.1%
134,691159,238302,738
R
−6.3%
144,464163,828309,319
R
−8.3%
145,648172,224319,232
R
−3.3%
138,517148,018291,505
R
−13.5%
108,531143,781260,427
R
−23.1%
95,083154,777258,013
R
−40.0%
44,124126,754206,344
R
−41.1%
43,632115,629175,284
R
−24.5%
37,13962,500103,556
R
−1.0%
31,19032,06891,025
R
−20.3%
38,08658,478100,379
R
−27.4%
30,97156,30192,380
R
−17.1%
35,80151,39390,998
R
−20.4%
33,08450,66486,274
R
−11.5%
33,08342,39481,164
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Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
17.3%
Italian
15.1%
Irish
14.7%
English
12.4%
American
4.3%
Polish
4.3%
French
2.0%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 40.6 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.8%
85+
1.6%
2.5%
75–84
3.2%
5.4%
65–74
6.0%
6.8%
55–64
7.2%
5.6%
45–54
5.9%
6.0%
35–44
6.2%
6.5%
25–34
6.5%
4.8%
18–24
4.8%
7.7%
5–17
7.3%
2.6%
<5
2.5%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$76,563
Rochester, NY ranks near the middle of US counties.
Rochester, NY$76,563
New York$85,974
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
12.7%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1817.1%
Working age (18–64)11.8%
Seniors (65+)10.3%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
88.9%
speak English only
Spanish4.9%
Other Indo-European3.6%
Asian & Pacific Islander1.6%
Other languages0.9%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
26.6%
Other Christian
7.2%
Non-Christian
4.1%
Mainline Protestant
3.6%
Methodist
2.8%
Baptist
1.9%
Pentecostal & Holiness
1.1%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 52.8% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Rochester's media market anchors Monroe County, a bellwether that has tracked closely with statewide margins while its urban core and outer-ring suburbs increasingly diverge in turnout patterns and party preference.

The Democratic margin in Rochester, NY has rarely exceeded forty points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded forty-one points. 2024 delivered the market to the Democratic candidate by ten points.

Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most markets. A 75% non-Hispanic-white share, a 13% poverty rate, and a median household income of $76,563 — all within the broad national range.

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Rochester, NY, New York — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/dma/538/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Rochester, NY, New York vote in 2024?
In 2024, Rochester, NY, New York voted Democratic by 9.7 points (D+10), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 511,445 votes cast, 277,882 went Democratic and 228,325 went Republican.
What is Rochester, NY, New York's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Rochester, NY, New York as a "Bellwether" market based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the market has voted Democratic 9 times, Republican 25 times, and other 0 times.
When did Rochester, NY, New York last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Rochester, NY, New York voted Republican was 2004.
How many people live in Rochester, NY, New York?
Rochester, NY, New York has a population of 1,043,331 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Rochester, NY, New York?
Median household income in Rochester, NY, New York is $76,563 — below the national median of $80,734. The New York state median is $85,974.
What is the political history of Rochester, NY, New York?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Rochester, NY, New York from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 9 went Democratic and 25 went Republican. The market's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.