Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota) Media Market — Elections 1876–2024

Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota), Florida: Populist market. In 2024, voted R+16%. Democratic peak: D+89 in 1892.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: R+16MIT Election Lab
Political archetype: PopulistAkashic typology
Population: 5,278,5732024 5-year
Median household income: $73,6292024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 64.9%2024 5-year
Black: 10.8%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 21.3%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+89 in 1892MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+46 in 1972MIT Election Lab

2024 results by constituent county

10 counties · 0 D · 10 R

R+60

D+60

One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.

38 presidential elections

Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
Year	Won	Margin	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	R	−15.8%	1,094,881	1,511,350	2,631,584
2020	R	−8.1%	1,212,062	1,427,930	2,667,322
2016	R	−8.5%	989,936	1,180,217	2,250,302
2012	R	−1.9%	984,979	1,023,790	2,030,303
2008	D	+0.8%	1,004,313	988,732	2,011,894
2004	R	−8.2%	844,014	997,123	1,858,357
2000	R	−2.5%	711,801	750,131	1,505,471
1996	D	+4.1%	635,027	579,193	1,361,637
1992	R	−3.4%	517,149	564,755	1,404,443
1988	R	−22.1%	446,191	700,543	1,153,165
1984	R	−33.8%	374,121	755,445	1,129,797
1980	R	−17.6%	378,687	551,188	980,958
1976	R	−0.5%	395,142	398,780	804,284
1972	R	−46.3%	178,366	486,449	666,125
1968	R	−16.7%	161,244	255,323	562,052
1964	D	+4.2%	245,153	225,340	470,493
1960	R	−14.7%	175,326	235,928	411,254
1956	R	−25.2%	107,124	179,161	286,285
1952	R	−20.5%	94,520	143,318	237,838
1948	D	+1.4%	59,948	57,952	138,759
1944	D	+36.6%	80,981	37,613	118,594
1940	D	+43.9%	86,850	33,860	120,710
1936	D	+41.8%	57,370	23,535	80,905
1932	D	+44.8%	51,902	19,800	71,702
1928	R	−23.0%	24,981	40,253	66,424
1924	D	+25.0%	14,196	7,893	25,235
1920	D	+26.7%	17,971	9,823	30,474
1916	D	+55.6%	11,563	2,433	16,418
1912	D	+63.5%	6,900	496	10,092
1908	D	+61.2%	5,665	921	7,753
1904	D	+57.0%	4,431	861	6,261
1900	D	+66.7%	4,932	608	6,483
1896	D	+58.3%	4,810	1,140	6,299
1892	D	+88.5%	4,949	0	5,589
1888	—	No data	—	—	—
1884	D	+61.0%	3,722	901	4,623
1880	—	No data	—	—	—
1876	—	No data	—	—	—

Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry

Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.

German

11.5%

English

9.9%

Irish

9.8%

American

8.9%

Italian

6.6%

Polish

2.6%

French

2.1%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.

Age distribution by sex

Median age: 44.7 in this county, 39.1 nationally

Male

Age

Female

1.1%

85+

1.6%

3.6%

75–84

4.2%

5.8%

65–74

6.8%

6.5%

55–64

7.1%

5.9%

45–54

6.1%

35–44

6.2%

25–34

6.2%

3.8%

18–24

3.7%

7.3%

5–17

6.9%

2.5%

2.3%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

Median household income

2024 inflation-adjusted dollars

$73,629

Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota) ranks near the middle of US counties.

Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota)$73,629

Florida$74,568

United States$80,734

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

Poverty rate

All persons below federal poverty line

12.1%

Children face moderate poverty.

Children under 1815.8%

Working age (18–64)11.2%

Seniors (65+)12.1%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

Language at home

Population aged 5 and older

77.7%

speak English only

Spanish15.6%

Other Indo-European4.1%

Asian & Pacific Islander1.9%

Other languages0.8%

Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.

Religious adherents

Adherents per capita by tradition

Catholic & Orthodox

20.7%

Other Christian

11.9%

Baptist

6.2%

Methodist

2.7%

Pentecostal & Holiness

2.5%

Mainline Protestant

1.8%

Non-Christian

1.4%

Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 52.7% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Spanning Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Sarasota counties, this market blends a blue-leaning urban core with fast-growing suburban and retirement communities, making it a consistent battleground for statewide races.

The Democratic margin in Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota) peaked at eighty-nine points in 1892. By 2012 the market had flipped, voting Republican for the first time in many years. The 2024 margin was sixteen points, the most Republican-leaning result in the market's modern history.

The economic context is the key. The median household income of $73,629 sits well below state and national norms, and 12% of residents live below the federal poverty line. The shift here is part of a broader realignment of working-class places across the country.

Cite this page

All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.

Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota), Florida — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/dma/539/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.

License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota), Florida vote in 2024?

In 2024, Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota), Florida voted Republican by 15.8 points (R+16), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 2,631,584 votes cast, 1,094,881 went Democratic and 1,511,350 went Republican.

What is Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota), Florida's political archetype?

Akashic classifies Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota), Florida as a "Populist" market based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the market has voted Democratic 18 times, Republican 17 times, and other 0 times.

When did Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota), Florida last vote Democratic?

The most recent presidential election in which Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota), Florida voted Democratic was 2008.

How many people live in Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota), Florida?

Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota), Florida has a population of 5,278,573 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota), Florida?

Median household income in Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota), Florida is $73,629 — below the national median of $80,734. The Florida state median is $74,568.

What is the political history of Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota), Florida?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota), Florida from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 18 went Democratic and 17 went Republican. The market's archetype — "Populist" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.

Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota) peaked at D+89; 2024 delivered R+16.

Key facts

Demographics

Frequently asked questions