Richmond-Petersburg, Virginia: Bellwether market. In 2024, voted D+9%. Democratic peak: D+69 in 1912.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+9MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- BellwetherAkashic typology
- Population
- 1,576,0812024 5-year
- Median household income
- $86,5032024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 56.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 28.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 7.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+69 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+32 in 1972MIT Election Lab
Constituent county margins for Richmond-Petersburg, VAOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
R+60D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 459,135 | 379,794 | 853,476 | ||
| D | 458,801 | 366,102 | 839,145 | ||
| D | 378,914 | 329,710 | 748,240 | ||
| D | 377,861 | 344,174 | 732,143 | ||
| D | 368,521 | 326,512 | 701,238 | ||
| R | 261,659 | 321,559 | 587,022 | ||
| R | 216,681 | 272,522 | 501,928 | ||
| R | 192,764 | 224,246 | 449,323 | ||
| R | 188,437 | 231,651 | 488,760 | ||
| R | 153,505 | 255,656 | 413,452 | ||
| R | 149,063 | 263,878 | 415,518 | ||
| R | 148,356 | 203,649 | 368,525 | ||
| R | 149,877 | 178,008 | 335,368 | ||
| R | 103,017 | 202,556 | 310,909 | ||
| R | 86,243 | 123,836 | 277,144 | ||
| D | 112,421 | 111,098 | 223,835 | ||
| R | 65,563 | 87,059 | 153,887 | ||
| R | 38,921 | 73,480 | 135,476 | ||
| R | 54,240 | 72,272 | 126,922 | ||
| D | 40,111 | 28,395 | 80,911 | ||
| D | 51,511 | 19,547 | 71,230 | ||
| D | 49,342 | 15,663 | 65,273 | ||
| D | 48,678 | 11,868 | 60,796 | ||
| D | 40,105 | 12,567 | 53,758 | ||
| D | 27,816 | 25,277 | 53,093 | ||
| D | 26,210 | 6,998 | 35,158 | ||
| D | 31,828 | 10,131 | 42,312 | ||
| D | 21,284 | 4,530 | 26,059 | ||
| D | 18,665 | 2,483 | 23,472 | ||
| D | 16,373 | 5,873 | 22,425 | ||
| D | 16,105 | 5,498 | 21,858 | ||
| D | 30,360 | 22,242 | 52,994 | ||
| D | 36,253 | 29,007 | 66,282 | ||
| D | 36,254 | 26,461 | 65,849 | ||
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Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
English
13.2%
German
9.0%
Irish
8.3%
American
7.6%
Italian
3.6%
Scottish
1.9%
Polish
1.0%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 39.9 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$86,503
Richmond-Petersburg ranks near the middle of US counties.
Richmond-Petersburg$86,503
Virginia$93,170
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
10.5%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 1814.1%
Working age (18–64)9.4%
Seniors (65+)10.6%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
89.1%
speak English only
Spanish5.7%
Other Indo-European2.3%
Asian & Pacific Islander1.9%
Other languages1.0%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 48.4% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Richmond-Petersburg straddles a persistent partisan fault line, blending the Democratic-leaning city core with battleground exurbs that have shifted measurably toward competitive margins in recent statewide cycles.
The Democratic margin in Richmond-Petersburg has rarely exceeded sixty-nine points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded thirty-two points. 2024 delivered the market to the Democratic candidate by nine points.
Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most markets. A 57% non-Hispanic-white share, a 11% poverty rate, and a median household income of $86,503 — all within the broad national range.
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Richmond-Petersburg, Virginia — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/dma/556/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did Richmond-Petersburg, Virginia vote in 2024?
In 2024, Richmond-Petersburg, Virginia voted Democratic by 9.3 points (D+9), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 853,476 votes cast, 459,135 went Democratic and 379,794 went Republican.
What is Richmond-Petersburg, Virginia's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Richmond-Petersburg, Virginia as a "Bellwether" market based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the market has voted Democratic 21 times, Republican 13 times, and other 0 times.
When did Richmond-Petersburg, Virginia last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Richmond-Petersburg, Virginia voted Republican was 2004.
How many people live in Richmond-Petersburg, Virginia?
Richmond-Petersburg, Virginia has a population of 1,576,081 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Richmond-Petersburg, Virginia?
Median household income in Richmond-Petersburg, Virginia is $86,503 — above the national median of $80,734. The Virginia state median is $93,170.
What is the political history of Richmond-Petersburg, Virginia?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Richmond-Petersburg, Virginia from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 21 went Democratic and 13 went Republican. The market's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.