Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York Media Market — Elections 1876–2024

Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York, Pennsylvania: Populist market. In 2024, voted R+20%. Republican peak: R+63 in 1928.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: R+20MIT Election Lab
Political archetype: PopulistAkashic typology
Population: 2,102,1102024 5-year
Median household income: $82,7082024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 80.4%2024 5-year
Black: 5.9%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 9.6%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+12 in 1912MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+63 in 1928MIT Election Lab

2024 results by constituent county

10 counties · 1 D · 9 R

R+60

D+60

One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.

38 presidential elections

Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
Year	Won	Margin	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	R	−20.3%	438,156	664,998	1,119,055
2020	R	−19.9%	422,556	636,673	1,074,845
2016	R	−23.8%	332,375	556,080	939,766
2012	R	−19.4%	337,495	504,052	856,796
2008	R	−12.9%	377,657	490,853	877,567
2004	R	−28.9%	292,800	532,747	830,628
2000	R	−27.2%	237,016	420,788	676,175
1996	R	−17.6%	221,176	328,210	606,588
1992	R	−17.9%	200,992	314,105	632,699
1988	R	−32.3%	180,478	354,343	538,984
1984	R	−39.5%	160,400	372,289	535,970
1980	R	−31.8%	149,684	306,929	494,367
1976	R	−21.8%	183,283	287,952	480,688
1972	R	−45.6%	119,114	326,225	454,096
1968	R	−28.8%	142,064	273,994	457,486
1964	D	+9.4%	249,945	206,813	458,526
1960	R	−31.2%	164,915	315,396	481,829
1956	R	−31.3%	147,338	282,346	430,692
1952	R	−27.1%	149,207	260,801	411,445
1948	R	−20.9%	125,615	193,612	324,694
1944	R	−13.6%	146,461	192,824	340,870
1940	R	−2.6%	174,371	183,736	359,106
1936	D	+6.6%	202,613	177,359	385,460
1932	R	−10.3%	120,856	149,550	279,645
1928	R	−62.6%	52,602	232,238	287,181
1924	R	−35.2%	63,541	140,070	217,706
1920	R	−30.4%	60,407	116,349	183,870
1916	R	−6.6%	63,175	72,592	143,290
1912	O	+11.9%	51,694	34,572	143,462
1908	R	−22.4%	53,200	85,464	144,320
1904	R	−32.6%	45,215	91,055	140,822
1900	R	−20.8%	52,407	80,906	136,886
1896	R	−24.3%	50,391	83,988	138,458
1892	R	−9.3%	54,633	66,136	123,890
1888	—	No data	—	—	—
1884	—	No data	—	—	—
1880	—	No data	—	—	—
1876	—	No data	—	—	—

Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry

Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.

German

29.6%

Irish

11.3%

English

8.8%

American

6.3%

Italian

5.8%

Polish

2.7%

Scottish

1.1%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.

Age distribution by sex

Median age: 40.6 in this county, 39.1 nationally

Male

Age

Female

0.9%

85+

1.7%

2.6%

75–84

3.2%

5.3%

65–74

5.8%

6.5%

55–64

6.7%

6.0%

45–54

5.9%

6.2%

35–44

6.2%

6.3%

25–34

6.2%

4.3%

18–24

4.2%

8.4%

5–17

7.9%

2.9%

2.8%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

Median household income

2024 inflation-adjusted dollars

$82,708

Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York ranks near the middle of US counties.

Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York$82,708

Pennsylvania$77,971

United States$80,734

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

Poverty rate

All persons below federal poverty line

9.1%

Child poverty is below the national average.

Children under 1812.1%

Working age (18–64)8.2%

Seniors (65+)9.3%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

Language at home

Population aged 5 and older

88.1%

speak English only

Spanish5.6%

Other Indo-European4.5%

Asian & Pacific Islander1.2%

Other languages0.7%

Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.

Religious adherents

Adherents per capita by tradition

Other Christian

12.3%

Catholic & Orthodox

10.0%

Mainline Protestant

9.2%

Methodist

5.1%

Pentecostal & Holiness

1.9%

Non-Christian

1.2%

Baptist

1.0%

Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 59.4% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Stretching across south-central Pennsylvania's mix of mid-sized cities and deep-rural townships, this market has historically leaned Republican but seen competitive tightening as Lancaster and York suburbs diversify and commuter populations grow.

The Democratic margin in Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York peaked at twelve points in 1912. By 1968 the market had flipped, voting Republican for the first time in many years. The 2024 margin was twenty points, the most Republican-leaning result in the market's modern history.

The economic context is the key. The median household income of $82,708 sits well below state and national norms, and 9% of residents live below the federal poverty line. The shift here is part of a broader realignment of working-class places across the country.

Cite this page

All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.

Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York, Pennsylvania — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/dma/566/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.

License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York, Pennsylvania vote in 2024?

In 2024, Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York, Pennsylvania voted Republican by 20.3 points (R+20), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 1,119,055 votes cast, 438,156 went Democratic and 664,998 went Republican.

What is Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York, Pennsylvania's political archetype?

Akashic classifies Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York, Pennsylvania as a "Populist" market based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the market has voted Democratic 2 times, Republican 31 times, and other 1 times.

When did Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York, Pennsylvania last vote Democratic?

The most recent presidential election in which Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York, Pennsylvania voted Democratic was 1964.

How many people live in Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York, Pennsylvania?

Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York, Pennsylvania has a population of 2,102,110 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York, Pennsylvania?

Median household income in Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York, Pennsylvania is $82,708 — above the national median of $80,734. The Pennsylvania state median is $77,971.

What is the political history of Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York, Pennsylvania?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York, Pennsylvania from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 2 went Democratic and 31 went Republican. The market's archetype — "Populist" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.

Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York was solidly Democratic for decades. In the last twenty years, it flipped.

Key facts

Demographics

Frequently asked questions