South Bend-Elkhart, Indiana: Populist market. In 2024, voted R+22%. Republican peak: R+35 in 1972.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+22MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- PopulistAkashic typology
- Population
- 908,6292024 5-year
- Median household income
- $68,7502024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 77.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 7.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 11.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+17 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+35 in 1972MIT Election Lab
Constituent county margins for South Bend-Elkhart, INOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
R+60D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 146,996 | 229,734 | 383,678 | ||
| R | 155,396 | 227,213 | 389,822 | ||
| R | 128,644 | 206,188 | 356,118 | ||
| R | 148,141 | 199,294 | 353,841 | ||
| R | 184,306 | 184,754 | 373,700 | ||
| R | 135,423 | 207,571 | 345,798 | ||
| R | 124,139 | 178,378 | 309,335 | ||
| R | 118,299 | 139,688 | 290,049 | ||
| R | 115,259 | 139,102 | 318,442 | ||
| R | 113,627 | 177,417 | 292,324 | ||
| R | 108,516 | 192,592 | 302,941 | ||
| R | 109,698 | 177,862 | 309,925 | ||
| R | 127,384 | 169,488 | 300,353 | ||
| R | 95,114 | 197,471 | 295,484 | ||
| R | 108,776 | 148,498 | 291,493 | ||
| D | 162,559 | 124,300 | 288,380 | ||
| R | 133,924 | 170,654 | 306,095 | ||
| R | 110,393 | 172,745 | 284,541 | ||
| R | 108,995 | 160,706 | 272,983 | ||
| R | 102,958 | 118,003 | 225,647 | ||
| R | 99,602 | 125,205 | 227,031 | ||
| R | 104,102 | 119,350 | 224,884 | ||
| D | 110,641 | 88,141 | 203,528 | ||
| D | 106,155 | 83,070 | 194,420 | ||
| R | 62,218 | 110,510 | 173,832 | ||
| R | 43,537 | 81,572 | 137,223 | ||
| R | 42,717 | 78,145 | 126,801 | ||
| R | 37,284 | 38,027 | 79,604 | ||
| O | 27,381 | 15,223 | 71,296 | ||
| R | 34,873 | 42,998 | 81,939 | ||
| R | 27,601 | 43,831 | 75,774 | ||
| R | 33,410 | 39,061 | 74,583 | ||
| R | 33,249 | 37,699 | 72,209 | ||
| R | 28,964 | 29,106 | 61,375 | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
| — | — | — | — |
Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
20.8%
English
9.6%
Irish
9.6%
American
6.1%
Polish
4.4%
Italian
2.7%
French
1.5%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 38.5 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$68,750
South Bend-Elkhart ranks near the middle of US counties.
South Bend-Elkhart$68,750
Indiana$72,875
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
12.9%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1818.3%
Working age (18–64)11.2%
Seniors (65+)11.1%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
85.5%
speak English only
Spanish7.6%
Other Indo-European5.4%
Asian & Pacific Islander1.0%
Other languages0.5%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 59.3% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
The South Bend-Elkhart market pairs a mid-sized university city that has trended competitive in recent cycles with Elkhart County's RV-industry workforce, one of Indiana's most reliably wide-margin Republican geographies.
The Democratic margin in South Bend-Elkhart peaked at seventeen points in 1912. By 1968 the market had flipped, voting Republican for the first time in many years. The 2024 margin was twenty-two points, the most Republican-leaning result in the market's modern history.
The economic context is the key. The median household income of $68,750 sits well below state and national norms, and 13% of residents live below the federal poverty line. The shift here is part of a broader realignment of working-class places across the country.
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
South Bend-Elkhart, Indiana — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/dma/588/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did South Bend-Elkhart, Indiana vote in 2024?
In 2024, South Bend-Elkhart, Indiana voted Republican by 21.6 points (R+22), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 383,678 votes cast, 146,996 went Democratic and 229,734 went Republican.
What is South Bend-Elkhart, Indiana's political archetype?
Akashic classifies South Bend-Elkhart, Indiana as a "Populist" market based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the market has voted Democratic 3 times, Republican 30 times, and other 1 times.
When did South Bend-Elkhart, Indiana last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which South Bend-Elkhart, Indiana voted Democratic was 1964.
How many people live in South Bend-Elkhart, Indiana?
South Bend-Elkhart, Indiana has a population of 908,629 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in South Bend-Elkhart, Indiana?
Median household income in South Bend-Elkhart, Indiana is $68,750 — below the national median of $80,734. The Indiana state median is $72,875.
What is the political history of South Bend-Elkhart, Indiana?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in South Bend-Elkhart, Indiana from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 3 went Democratic and 30 went Republican. The market's archetype — "Populist" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.