Gainesville, Florida: Bellwether market. In 2024, voted D+2%. Democratic peak: D+84 in 1892.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+2MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- BellwetherAkashic typology
- Population
- 366,9812024 5-year
- Median household income
- $60,8372024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 66.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 16.5%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 11.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+84 in 1892MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+21 in 1972MIT Election Lab
Constituent county margins for Gainesville, FLOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
R+60D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 90,395 | 87,024 | 179,725 | ||
| D | 98,974 | 82,375 | 183,601 | ||
| D | 83,649 | 73,171 | 163,588 | ||
| D | 79,501 | 71,820 | 153,667 | ||
| D | 86,197 | 71,117 | 159,327 | ||
| D | 72,555 | 67,542 | 141,437 | ||
| D | 56,515 | 46,995 | 108,549 | ||
| D | 48,818 | 32,953 | 94,176 | ||
| D | 45,584 | 29,405 | 95,698 | ||
| R | 35,333 | 39,292 | 75,413 | ||
| R | 31,962 | 40,430 | 72,453 | ||
| D | 34,656 | 25,208 | 64,926 | ||
| D | 35,896 | 18,597 | 55,850 | ||
| R | 18,721 | 28,743 | 47,560 | ||
| O | 11,360 | 10,815 | 35,985 | ||
| D | 17,103 | 14,179 | 31,282 | ||
| D | 13,092 | 11,737 | 24,829 | ||
| D | 10,539 | 9,380 | 19,919 | ||
| R | 9,816 | 10,133 | 19,949 | ||
| D | 6,619 | 2,785 | 14,537 | ||
| D | 9,828 | 2,080 | 11,908 | ||
| D | 11,672 | 1,810 | 13,482 | ||
| D | 8,797 | 1,193 | 9,990 | ||
| D | 7,037 | 1,218 | 8,255 | ||
| O | 3,496 | 1,431 | 8,505 | ||
| D | 2,776 | 756 | 3,883 | ||
| D | 4,192 | 1,496 | 5,842 | ||
| D | 2,742 | 656 | 3,514 | ||
| D | 1,679 | 295 | 2,263 | ||
| D | 1,650 | 875 | 2,725 | ||
| D | 1,703 | 694 | 2,537 | ||
| D | 1,346 | 334 | 1,756 | ||
| D | 1,545 | 645 | 2,245 | ||
| D | 1,447 | 0 | 1,717 | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
| R | 2,396 | 2,428 | 4,824 | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
| — | — | — | — |
Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
English
12.6%
German
11.2%
Irish
10.4%
Italian
4.5%
American
4.5%
Scottish
2.9%
Polish
1.9%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 35.3 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$60,837
Gainesville ranks near the middle of US counties.
Gainesville$60,837
Florida$74,568
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
20.2%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1819.2%
Working age (18–64)21.0%
Seniors (65+)13.3%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
85.7%
speak English only
Spanish7.4%
Other Indo-European3.5%
Asian & Pacific Islander2.8%
Other languages0.6%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 56.1% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
The Gainesville media market anchors Alachua County, where University of Florida's roughly 50,000 students create unusually high turnout volatility and a college-educated demographic profile that diverges sharply from surrounding rural North Florida counties.
The Democratic margin in Gainesville has rarely exceeded eighty-four points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded twenty-one points. 2024 delivered the market to the Democratic candidate by two points.
Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most markets. A 66% non-Hispanic-white share, a 20% poverty rate, and a median household income of $60,837 — all within the broad national range.
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Gainesville, Florida — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/dma/592/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did Gainesville, Florida vote in 2024?
In 2024, Gainesville, Florida voted Democratic by 1.9 points (D+2), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 179,725 votes cast, 90,395 went Democratic and 87,024 went Republican.
What is Gainesville, Florida's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Gainesville, Florida as a "Bellwether" market based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the market has voted Democratic 28 times, Republican 5 times, and other 2 times.
When did Gainesville, Florida last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Gainesville, Florida voted Republican was 1988.
How many people live in Gainesville, Florida?
Gainesville, Florida has a population of 366,981 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Gainesville, Florida?
Median household income in Gainesville, Florida is $60,837 — below the national median of $80,734. The Florida state median is $74,568.
What is the political history of Gainesville, Florida?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Gainesville, Florida from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 28 went Democratic and 5 went Republican. The market's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.