Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg, Illinois: Populist market. In 2024, voted R+50%. Republican peak: R+50 in 2024.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+50MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- PopulistAkashic typology
- Population
- 934,1602024 5-year
- Median household income
- $57,8012024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 85.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 6.5%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+32 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+50 in 2024MIT Election Lab
Constituent county margins for Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg, ILOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
R+60D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 105,685 | 323,896 | 434,934 | ||
| R | 113,855 | 325,692 | 446,588 | ||
| R | 105,073 | 307,083 | 430,576 | ||
| R | 140,175 | 267,572 | 416,270 | ||
| R | 170,914 | 258,089 | 436,413 | ||
| R | 170,364 | 260,882 | 434,127 | ||
| R | 172,625 | 214,094 | 396,243 | ||
| D | 185,319 | 148,178 | 375,131 | ||
| D | 205,659 | 144,901 | 413,308 | ||
| R | 177,837 | 189,240 | 368,749 | ||
| R | 169,789 | 217,138 | 388,402 | ||
| R | 180,958 | 197,730 | 391,411 | ||
| D | 221,096 | 144,779 | 370,491 | ||
| R | 126,334 | 210,929 | 340,351 | ||
| R | 138,278 | 145,586 | 352,519 | ||
| D | 229,561 | 123,155 | 352,996 | ||
| R | 182,073 | 195,003 | 377,570 | ||
| D | 194,995 | 174,011 | 369,615 | ||
| D | 194,388 | 177,665 | 372,678 | ||
| D | 189,597 | 122,452 | 315,972 | ||
| D | 179,246 | 155,565 | 336,305 | ||
| D | 230,102 | 180,549 | 412,442 | ||
| D | 228,470 | 150,467 | 382,351 | ||
| D | 221,926 | 112,012 | 338,720 | ||
| R | 142,092 | 151,865 | 295,629 | ||
| D | 136,071 | 125,205 | 289,227 | ||
| R | 137,434 | 146,752 | 297,622 | ||
| D | 125,268 | 113,768 | 246,669 | ||
| D | 79,507 | 51,686 | 163,418 | ||
| D | 85,520 | 75,461 | 167,717 | ||
| D | 70,627 | 69,749 | 148,566 | ||
| D | 84,195 | 68,641 | 155,883 | ||
| D | 87,328 | 63,635 | 152,973 | ||
| D | 63,890 | 48,616 | 124,879 | ||
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Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
15.0%
English
13.4%
American
10.8%
Irish
10.4%
Italian
1.9%
Scottish
1.6%
French
1.3%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 40.9 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$57,801
Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg ranks near the middle of US counties.
Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg$57,801
Illinois$63,726
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
16.9%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1821.3%
Working age (18–64)15.9%
Seniors (65+)13.3%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
96.5%
speak English only
Spanish1.9%
Other Indo-European0.9%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.6%
Other languages0.1%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 44.7% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Spanning corners of Kentucky, Missouri, Illinois, and Tennessee, this mid-Mississippi media market forces campaigns to buy across multiple state lines to reach a relatively small, predominantly rural audience that has shifted decisively toward Republican margins over the past two decades.
The Democratic margin in Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg peaked at thirty-two points in 1932. By 2000 the market had flipped, voting Republican for the first time in many years. The 2024 margin was fifty points, the most Republican-leaning result in the market's modern history.
The economic context is the key. The median household income of $57,801 sits well below state and national norms, and 17% of residents live below the federal poverty line. The shift here is part of a broader realignment of working-class places across the country.
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg, Illinois — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/dma/632/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg, Illinois vote in 2024?
In 2024, Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg, Illinois voted Republican by 50.2 points (R+50), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 434,934 votes cast, 105,685 went Democratic and 323,896 went Republican.
What is Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg, Illinois's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg, Illinois as a "Populist" market based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the market has voted Democratic 19 times, Republican 15 times, and other 0 times.
When did Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg, Illinois last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg, Illinois voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg, Illinois?
Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg, Illinois has a population of 934,160 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg, Illinois?
Median household income in Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg, Illinois is $57,801 — below the national median of $80,734. The Illinois state median is $63,726.
What is the political history of Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg, Illinois?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg, Illinois from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 19 went Democratic and 15 went Republican. The market's archetype — "Populist" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.