Ottumwa-Kirksville, Missouri: Populist market. In 2024, voted R+41%. Republican peak: R+41 in 2024.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+41MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- PopulistAkashic typology
- Population
- 127,1522024 5-year
- Median household income
- $63,7722024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 87.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 6.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+27 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+41 in 2024MIT Election Lab
Constituent county margins for Ottumwa-Kirksville, MOOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
R+60D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 16,602 | 39,896 | 57,346 | ||
| R | 19,000 | 39,463 | 59,478 | ||
| R | 17,772 | 36,391 | 57,635 | ||
| R | 25,746 | 30,482 | 57,707 | ||
| R | 29,071 | 30,065 | 60,619 | ||
| R | 28,380 | 32,466 | 61,478 | ||
| R | 24,700 | 29,779 | 57,316 | ||
| D | 25,948 | 21,480 | 55,516 | ||
| D | 26,438 | 20,561 | 60,582 | ||
| D | 28,910 | 26,919 | 56,218 | ||
| R | 28,252 | 33,472 | 61,982 | ||
| R | 26,594 | 32,774 | 62,694 | ||
| D | 32,115 | 28,640 | 61,539 | ||
| R | 23,333 | 37,319 | 61,474 | ||
| R | 26,296 | 31,841 | 62,769 | ||
| D | 41,066 | 23,699 | 64,856 | ||
| R | 32,136 | 41,620 | 73,781 | ||
| R | 33,463 | 40,384 | 73,886 | ||
| R | 32,658 | 46,258 | 79,232 | ||
| D | 37,351 | 33,325 | 71,296 | ||
| R | 35,143 | 38,239 | 73,706 | ||
| R | 41,889 | 44,054 | 86,286 | ||
| D | 43,096 | 38,391 | 82,405 | ||
| D | 42,056 | 28,672 | 71,785 | ||
| R | 28,664 | 46,515 | 75,592 | ||
| R | 25,412 | 40,680 | 76,443 | ||
| R | 26,483 | 45,821 | 74,139 | ||
| R | 21,768 | 22,514 | 46,110 | ||
| D | 18,657 | 14,819 | 43,981 | ||
| R | 20,664 | 23,387 | 46,044 | ||
| R | 17,600 | 25,006 | 44,989 | ||
| R | 22,565 | 24,729 | 48,630 | ||
| D | 24,536 | 23,894 | 48,941 | ||
| R | 18,376 | 20,092 | 42,817 | ||
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Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
19.4%
English
12.6%
Irish
9.6%
American
7.7%
Scottish
1.8%
Italian
1.5%
French
1.0%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 39.0 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$63,772
Ottumwa-Kirksville ranks near the middle of US counties.
Ottumwa-Kirksville$63,772
Missouri$70,702
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
14.9%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 1814.4%
Working age (18–64)15.0%
Seniors (65+)13.9%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
87.6%
speak English only
Other Indo-European4.9%
Spanish4.2%
Asian & Pacific Islander2.1%
Other languages1.1%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 58.6% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
This mid-Missouri and southeast-Iowa media market ties together small industrial cities like Ottumwa and Kirksville across a rural landscape where ag-economy pressures and population decline have steadily shifted the electorate toward wide Republican margins over the past two decades.
The Democratic margin in Ottumwa-Kirksville peaked at twenty-seven points in 1964. By 2000 the market had flipped, voting Republican for the first time in many years. The 2024 margin was forty-one points, the most Republican-leaning result in the market's modern history.
The economic context is the key. The median household income of $63,772 sits well below state and national norms, and 15% of residents live below the federal poverty line. The shift here is part of a broader realignment of working-class places across the country.
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Ottumwa-Kirksville, Missouri — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/dma/631/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did Ottumwa-Kirksville, Missouri vote in 2024?
In 2024, Ottumwa-Kirksville, Missouri voted Republican by 40.6 points (R+41), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 57,346 votes cast, 16,602 went Democratic and 39,896 went Republican.
What is Ottumwa-Kirksville, Missouri's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Ottumwa-Kirksville, Missouri as a "Populist" market based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the market has voted Democratic 10 times, Republican 24 times, and other 0 times.
When did Ottumwa-Kirksville, Missouri last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Ottumwa-Kirksville, Missouri voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Ottumwa-Kirksville, Missouri?
Ottumwa-Kirksville, Missouri has a population of 127,152 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Ottumwa-Kirksville, Missouri?
Median household income in Ottumwa-Kirksville, Missouri is $63,772 — below the national median of $80,734. The Missouri state median is $70,702.
What is the political history of Ottumwa-Kirksville, Missouri?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Ottumwa-Kirksville, Missouri from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 10 went Democratic and 24 went Republican. The market's archetype — "Populist" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.