Butte-Bozeman, Montana: Bellwether market. In 2024, voted R+6%. Democratic peak: D+77 in 1896.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+6MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- BellwetherAkashic typology
- Population
- 208,2192024 5-year
- Median household income
- $83,3132024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 89.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.3%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 4.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+77 in 1896MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+23 in 1920MIT Election Lab
Constituent county margins for Butte-Bozeman, MTOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
R+60D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 53,158 | 59,817 | 116,821 | ||
| R | 56,754 | 57,441 | 117,606 | ||
| R | 39,795 | 44,797 | 93,577 | ||
| R | 41,498 | 43,516 | 87,766 | ||
| D | 46,110 | 39,949 | 88,679 | ||
| R | 33,140 | 42,270 | 77,342 | ||
| R | 25,356 | 37,673 | 69,124 | ||
| D | 30,348 | 27,271 | 66,882 | ||
| D | 26,950 | 21,192 | 66,816 | ||
| D | 29,206 | 27,719 | 57,908 | ||
| R | 26,837 | 33,636 | 61,389 | ||
| R | 22,001 | 30,730 | 60,205 | ||
| R | 25,846 | 27,911 | 54,504 | ||
| R | 24,177 | 28,244 | 54,268 | ||
| D | 24,265 | 19,759 | 47,571 | ||
| D | 31,643 | 16,741 | 49,051 | ||
| D | 27,272 | 21,849 | 49,313 | ||
| R | 22,355 | 28,199 | 50,554 | ||
| R | 23,612 | 27,251 | 51,150 | ||
| D | 24,750 | 18,357 | 45,177 | ||
| D | 25,669 | 17,637 | 43,621 | ||
| D | 33,431 | 18,987 | 52,903 | ||
| D | 34,648 | 12,001 | 47,745 | ||
| D | 28,591 | 15,873 | 46,509 | ||
| R | 20,573 | 22,284 | 43,397 | ||
| R | 10,999 | 15,104 | 39,333 | ||
| R | 13,516 | 22,477 | 39,092 | ||
| D | 26,515 | 15,529 | 44,327 | ||
| D | 9,705 | 5,763 | 24,350 | ||
| D | 12,393 | 10,501 | 26,382 | ||
| R | 10,943 | 12,234 | 27,483 | ||
| D | 20,008 | 8,940 | 29,578 | ||
| D | 21,621 | 2,766 | 24,478 | ||
| R | 7,771 | 8,410 | 21,044 | ||
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Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
22.4%
Irish
16.5%
English
14.5%
American
4.7%
Italian
3.8%
Scottish
3.2%
French
2.6%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 38.4 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$83,313
Butte-Bozeman ranks near the middle of US counties.
Butte-Bozeman$83,313
Montana$72,509
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
10.3%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 188.2%
Working age (18–64)11.0%
Seniors (65+)7.6%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
95.7%
speak English only
Spanish2.1%
Other Indo-European1.1%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.8%
Other languages0.2%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 67.2% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Bozeman's rapid in-migration of college-educated professionals has shifted Gallatin County's margins noticeably leftward, while Butte's working-class, union-rooted electorate maintains a distinct Democratic lean unusual for rural Montana.
The Democratic margin in Butte-Bozeman has rarely exceeded seventy-seven points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded twenty-three points. 2024 delivered the market to the Republican candidate by six points.
Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most markets. A 90% non-Hispanic-white share, a 10% poverty rate, and a median household income of $83,313 — all within the broad national range.
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Butte-Bozeman, Montana — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/dma/754/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did Butte-Bozeman, Montana vote in 2024?
In 2024, Butte-Bozeman, Montana voted Republican by 5.7 points (R+6), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 116,821 votes cast, 53,158 went Democratic and 59,817 went Republican.
What is Butte-Bozeman, Montana's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Butte-Bozeman, Montana as a "Bellwether" market based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the market has voted Democratic 17 times, Republican 17 times, and other 0 times.
When did Butte-Bozeman, Montana last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Butte-Bozeman, Montana voted Democratic was 2008.
How many people live in Butte-Bozeman, Montana?
Butte-Bozeman, Montana has a population of 208,219 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Butte-Bozeman, Montana?
Median household income in Butte-Bozeman, Montana is $83,313 — above the national median of $80,734. The Montana state median is $72,509.
What is the political history of Butte-Bozeman, Montana?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Butte-Bozeman, Montana from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 17 went Democratic and 17 went Republican. The market's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.