akashic
1876–2024
Tucson (Sierra Vista)·Arizona

Tucson (Sierra Vista) delivered D+11 in 2024.

A Sun Belt market where rapid growth meets a heavy military footprint

1876 — 2024·38 elections
AZ
Latest
D+11
in 2024
Archetype
Bellwether
since the recent cycles
Population
1,234,982
2024 ACS

Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona: Bellwether market. In 2024, voted D+11%. Democratic peak: D+42 in 1936.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
D+11MIT Election Lab
Political archetype
BellwetherAkashic typology
Population
1,234,9822024 5-year
Median household income
$68,6422024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
58.3%2024 5-year
Black
3.4%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
38.1%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+42 in 1936MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+23 in 1956MIT Election Lab
2024 results by constituent county
3 counties · 2 D · 1 R
R+60
D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
D
+11.4%
326,011258,304593,329
D
+15.3%
341,851249,509602,420
D
+11.1%
253,801199,417488,088
D
+4.7%
229,283208,511446,285
D
+3.9%
233,880215,950455,551
D
+3.6%
217,551202,333423,776
D
+6.1%
166,281146,103329,774
D
+11.9%
157,006120,742304,642
D
+10.1%
144,782112,262322,714
R
−3.0%
128,904137,034269,213
R
−16.1%
103,719144,090250,356
R
−16.5%
73,535109,080214,842
R
−3.7%
82,76089,497179,682
R
−12.5%
64,11286,997183,488
R
−9.2%
47,94058,800118,010
D
+7.4%
65,12056,102121,435
R
−3.8%
51,45855,571107,286
R
−22.9%
29,99547,83777,893
R
−17.6%
28,24240,32468,566
D
+7.1%
25,31421,88048,514
D
+17.3%
21,23214,94836,254
D
+28.2%
24,31913,59338,028
D
+41.7%
22,1088,91331,619
D
+34.8%
20,4659,61531,203
R
−13.3%
10,20013,33023,620
R
−5.5%
6,7637,85019,588
R
−11.6%
7,5919,58317,174
D
+14.8%
8,9206,48516,496
O
+30.5%
2,9168126,892
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Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
12.8%
English
10.6%
Irish
8.9%
Italian
3.9%
American
3.2%
Scottish
2.0%
Polish
2.0%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 40.1 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.9%
85+
1.3%
3.4%
75–84
3.9%
5.7%
65–74
6.6%
5.7%
55–64
6.2%
5.3%
45–54
5.4%
5.9%
35–44
5.7%
6.7%
25–34
6.2%
5.6%
18–24
5.4%
7.6%
5–17
7.4%
2.5%
<5
2.4%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$68,642
Tucson (Sierra Vista) ranks near the middle of US counties.
Tucson (Sierra Vista)$68,642
Arizona$79,964
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
14.6%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1819.1%
Working age (18–64)14.1%
Seniors (65+)9.9%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
72.1%
speak English only
Spanish23.3%
Other Indo-European1.8%
Asian & Pacific Islander1.7%
Other languages1.1%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
21.5%
Other Christian
11.2%
Mainline Protestant
2.2%
Pentecostal & Holiness
2.0%
Non-Christian
2.0%
Baptist
1.9%
Methodist
0.6%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 58.6% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Fort Huachuca anchors Sierra Vista's economy and voter base, while Tucson's expanding Latino electorate and University of Arizona enrollment make this media market one of the more demographically complex in the Southwest.

The Democratic margin in Tucson (Sierra Vista) has rarely exceeded forty-two points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded twenty-three points. 2024 delivered the market to the Democratic candidate by eleven points.

Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most markets. A 58% non-Hispanic-white share, a 15% poverty rate, and a median household income of $68,642 — all within the broad national range.

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/dma/789/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona vote in 2024?
In 2024, Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona voted Democratic by 11.4 points (D+11), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 593,329 votes cast, 326,011 went Democratic and 258,304 went Republican.
What is Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona as a "Bellwether" market based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the market has voted Democratic 16 times, Republican 12 times, and other 1 times.
When did Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona voted Republican was 1988.
How many people live in Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona?
Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona has a population of 1,234,982 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona?
Median household income in Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona is $68,642 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 16 went Democratic and 12 went Republican. The market's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.