Tri-Cities, TN-VA, Virginia: Populist market. In 2024, voted R+58%. Republican peak: R+58 in 2024.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+58MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- PopulistAkashic typology
- Population
- 791,3132024 5-year
- Median household income
- $55,3412024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 91.9%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.8%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+11 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+58 in 2024MIT Election Lab
Constituent county margins for Tri-Cities, TN-VA, VAOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
R+60D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 76,113 | 289,744 | 369,590 | ||
| R | 78,983 | 277,996 | 362,319 | ||
| R | 62,701 | 240,336 | 314,687 | ||
| R | 83,607 | 220,840 | 309,785 | ||
| R | 99,177 | 208,671 | 312,798 | ||
| R | 106,880 | 198,359 | 308,125 | ||
| R | 112,827 | 156,976 | 275,228 | ||
| R | 108,578 | 125,670 | 258,539 | ||
| R | 118,163 | 130,084 | 282,459 | ||
| R | 97,537 | 150,025 | 250,220 | ||
| R | 97,735 | 170,402 | 270,192 | ||
| R | 106,615 | 134,500 | 249,595 | ||
| D | 117,186 | 115,659 | 239,055 | ||
| R | 49,451 | 141,390 | 194,941 | ||
| R | 60,783 | 109,221 | 208,157 | ||
| D | 91,694 | 87,419 | 179,318 | ||
| R | 70,584 | 112,222 | 183,912 | ||
| R | 67,706 | 111,703 | 180,691 | ||
| R | 61,551 | 94,262 | 156,455 | ||
| R | 51,686 | 61,422 | 115,945 | ||
| R | 50,000 | 57,711 | 107,974 | ||
| D | 54,227 | 50,564 | 105,285 | ||
| D | 53,459 | 46,217 | 99,970 | ||
| D | 47,839 | 42,844 | 91,369 | ||
| R | 33,561 | 56,634 | 90,242 | ||
| R | 32,433 | 42,619 | 77,478 | ||
| R | 28,189 | 52,604 | 80,989 | ||
| R | 20,569 | 30,149 | 50,908 | ||
| D | 17,778 | 12,791 | 45,062 | ||
| R | 15,919 | 26,926 | 42,998 | ||
| R | 14,796 | 24,846 | 39,930 | ||
| R | 22,057 | 29,387 | 51,753 | ||
| R | 20,863 | 30,244 | 51,569 | ||
| D | 20,757 | 20,029 | 43,173 | ||
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Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
American
21.2%
English
16.8%
Irish
10.0%
German
9.3%
Scottish
2.3%
Italian
1.7%
French
0.8%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 44.5 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$55,341
Tri-Cities, TN-VA ranks near the middle of US counties.
Tri-Cities, TN-VA$55,341
Virginia$63,726
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
16.8%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1822.3%
Working age (18–64)15.8%
Seniors (65+)13.7%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
97.1%
speak English only
Spanish1.9%
Other Indo-European0.5%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.3%
Other languages0.2%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 49.5% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
The Tri-Cities market straddles a state line, meaning voters in Johnson City, Kingsport, and Bristol are reached by campaigns operating under two different sets of electoral rules and candidate slates simultaneously.
The Democratic margin in Tri-Cities, TN-VA peaked at eleven points in 1912. By 1980 the market had flipped, voting Republican for the first time in many years. The 2024 margin was fifty-eight points, the most Republican-leaning result in the market's modern history.
The economic context is the key. The median household income of $55,341 sits well below state and national norms, and 17% of residents live below the federal poverty line. The shift here is part of a broader realignment of working-class places across the country.
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Tri-Cities, TN-VA, Virginia — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/dma/531/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did Tri-Cities, TN-VA, Virginia vote in 2024?
In 2024, Tri-Cities, TN-VA, Virginia voted Republican by 57.8 points (R+58), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 369,590 votes cast, 76,113 went Democratic and 289,744 went Republican.
What is Tri-Cities, TN-VA, Virginia's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Tri-Cities, TN-VA, Virginia as a "Populist" market based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the market has voted Democratic 7 times, Republican 27 times, and other 0 times.
When did Tri-Cities, TN-VA, Virginia last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Tri-Cities, TN-VA, Virginia voted Democratic was 1976.
How many people live in Tri-Cities, TN-VA, Virginia?
Tri-Cities, TN-VA, Virginia has a population of 791,313 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Tri-Cities, TN-VA, Virginia?
Median household income in Tri-Cities, TN-VA, Virginia is $55,341 — below the national median of $80,734. The Virginia state median is $63,726.
What is the political history of Tri-Cities, TN-VA, Virginia?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Tri-Cities, TN-VA, Virginia from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 7 went Democratic and 27 went Republican. The market's archetype — "Populist" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.