akashic
1876–2024
Las Vegas·Nevada

Las Vegas delivered D+1 in 2024 — close enough to flip again next time.

A transient population that complicates every turnout model

18762024·38 elections
NV
Latest
D+1
in 2024
Archetype
Tossup
since the recent cycles
Population
2,388,297
2024 ACS

Las Vegas, Nevada: Tossup market. In 2024, voted D+1%. Democratic peak: D+92 in 1896.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
D+1MIT Election Lab
Political archetype
TossupAkashic typology
Population
2,388,2972024 5-year
Median household income
$76,1062024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
44.4%2024 5-year
Black
11.8%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
31.5%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+92 in 1896MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+30 in 1980MIT Election Lab
3 counties · 1 D · 2 R
R+60
D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
D
+1.3%
528,060514,1061,060,692
D
+7.9%
529,470450,5251,000,334
D
+9.2%
407,606335,052788,883
D
+13.4%
396,656301,310710,864
D
+18.1%
388,509268,113666,830
D
+4.0%
287,801265,403561,954
D
+5.5%
201,086179,208396,335
D
+8.6%
131,762108,346273,704
D
+8.5%
127,658101,036312,661
R
−16.2%
80,573112,764198,946
R
−27.9%
55,05298,881156,968
R
−30.1%
39,68279,668132,730
D
+2.9%
53,08149,963106,626
R
−18.5%
37,99155,22993,220
D
+1.8%
34,36732,92078,249
D
+25.9%
42,82125,18368,004
D
+13.8%
25,71319,49045,203
D
+0.6%
20,64720,41541,062
R
−6.7%
13,36315,27328,636
D
+23.3%
12,3867,62420,396
D
+24.7%
9,5885,79015,378
D
+40.6%
7,9613,36011,321
D
+62.5%
8,2251,89610,121
D
+58.6%
8,2382,14810,386
R
−2.7%
2,6492,7955,444
O
−13.4%
9991,6174,601
R
−10.9%
1,9932,5385,002
D
+27.1%
3,3501,7505,914
O
+25.3%
1,5025553,743
D
+3.9%
1,9871,8144,388
R
−13.1%
6849161,770
D
+48.0%
7542651,019
D
+92.5%
1,075421,117
O
−10.0%
33113801
No data
No data
No data
No data

Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
8.2%
English
7.4%
Irish
6.9%
Italian
4.6%
American
2.9%
Polish
1.7%
French
1.3%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
66.9%
speak English only
Spanish22.0%
Asian & Pacific Islander7.2%
Other Indo-European2.6%
Other languages1.3%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
26.2%
Other Christian
10.6%
Baptist
1.7%
Pentecostal & Holiness
1.6%
Non-Christian
1.6%
Mainline Protestant
0.9%
Methodist
0.3%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 57.1% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

The Las Vegas media market anchors Clark County, home to roughly 75% of Nevada's voters, where rapid in-migration and a large hospitality workforce produce unusually high voter-roll churn and make traditional likely-voter screens difficult to calibrate.

The market's recent history is a story of close margins. The Democratic margin reached ninety-two points in 1896; the Republican margin reached thirty points in 1980. Most other elections have been decided by single-digit points.

Its demographics — a population of 2,388,297, a 44% non-Hispanic-white share, a median household income of $76,106 — situate the market close to national averages on several dimensions.

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Las Vegas, Nevada — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/dma/839/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Las Vegas, Nevada vote in 2024?
In 2024, Las Vegas, Nevada voted Democratic by 1.3 points (D+1), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 1,060,692 votes cast, 528,060 went Democratic and 514,106 went Republican.
What is Las Vegas, Nevada's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Las Vegas, Nevada as a "Tossup" market based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the market has voted Democratic 23 times, Republican 8 times, and other 3 times.
When did Las Vegas, Nevada last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Las Vegas, Nevada voted Republican was 1988.
How many people live in Las Vegas, Nevada?
Las Vegas, Nevada has a population of 2,388,297 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Las Vegas, Nevada?
Median household income in Las Vegas, Nevada is $76,106 — below the national median of $80,734. The Nevada state median is $78,260.
What is the political history of Las Vegas, Nevada?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Las Vegas, Nevada from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 23 went Democratic and 8 went Republican. The market's archetype — "Tossup" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.