Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto Media Market — Elections 1876–2024

Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto, California: Tossup market. In 2024, voted D+6%. Democratic peak: D+51 in 1912.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: D+6MIT Election Lab
Political archetype: TossupAkashic typology
Population: 4,701,8022024 5-year
Median household income: $93,3532024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 47.7%2024 5-year
Black: 6.4%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 30.0%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+51 in 1912MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+35 in 1924MIT Election Lab

2024 results by constituent county

16 counties · 4 D · 12 R

R+60

D+60

One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.

38 presidential elections

Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
Year	Won	Margin	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	D	+5.7%	1,013,111	900,459	1,978,274
2020	D	+13.0%	1,169,176	894,340	2,118,463
2016	D	+11.5%	872,650	677,540	1,692,655
2012	D	+8.2%	816,887	689,685	1,551,739
2008	D	+9.6%	870,063	714,166	1,622,276
2004	R	−7.2%	669,456	774,946	1,461,964
2000	R	−3.3%	586,281	627,988	1,276,237
1996	D	+2.8%	536,918	504,082	1,156,675
1992	D	+5.4%	518,807	451,176	1,247,545
1988	R	−6.8%	480,664	551,717	1,046,157
1984	R	−16.9%	397,867	562,866	973,686
1980	R	−13.3%	320,307	433,099	851,235
1976	D	+5.8%	364,477	323,668	709,295
1972	R	−6.3%	321,010	366,288	714,402
1968	D	+4.3%	282,923	257,488	590,406
1964	D	+29.4%	371,299	202,594	574,614
1960	D	+6.0%	270,905	240,271	513,523
1956	D	+2.5%	221,226	210,307	432,623
1952	R	−4.7%	191,777	210,774	405,489
1948	D	+11.6%	166,276	130,486	308,553
1944	D	+21.1%	153,567	99,841	254,846
1940	D	+25.0%	158,836	94,770	256,501
1936	D	+49.3%	151,538	50,650	204,829
1932	D	+37.1%	118,065	52,507	176,887
1928	R	−11.2%	61,543	77,286	140,332
1924	O	−35.2%	11,317	52,031	115,566
1920	R	−33.9%	29,204	62,876	99,234
1916	D	+16.6%	59,774	41,652	108,985
1912	D	+51.4%	42,413	0	82,527
1908	R	−12.0%	22,726	29,602	57,095
1904	R	−27.1%	17,207	31,646	53,348
1900	R	−6.7%	24,766	28,438	54,647
1896	D	+3.7%	27,801	25,784	54,663
1892	D	+0.1%	23,915	23,863	52,819
1888	R	−0.7%	25,278	25,648	52,442
1884	R	−5.6%	23,106	25,924	50,205
1880	R	−1.3%	22,821	23,404	46,594
1876	R	−4.3%	20,443	22,267	42,711

Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry

Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.

German

9.0%

English

8.5%

Irish

7.4%

Italian

4.2%

American

2.4%

Scottish

1.5%

French

1.5%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.

Age distribution by sex

Median age: 38.2 in this county, 39.1 nationally

Male

Age

Female

0.7%

85+

1.2%

2.1%

75–84

2.7%

4.6%

65–74

5.2%

5.9%

55–64

6.2%

6.0%

45–54

5.9%

7.0%

35–44

6.8%

6.9%

25–34

6.8%

4.5%

18–24

4.4%

8.9%

5–17

8.5%

3.0%

2.8%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

Median household income

2024 inflation-adjusted dollars

$93,353

Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto ranks near the middle of US counties.

Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto$93,353

California$99,122

United States$80,734

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

Poverty rate

All persons below federal poverty line

11.8%

Child poverty is below the national average.

Children under 1814.3%

Working age (18–64)11.0%

Seniors (65+)11.7%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

Language at home

Population aged 5 and older

67.5%

speak English only

Spanish17.9%

Asian & Pacific Islander7.3%

Other Indo-European6.3%

Other languages1.0%

Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.

Religious adherents

Adherents per capita by tradition

Catholic & Orthodox

17.9%

Other Christian

10.2%

Pentecostal & Holiness

2.7%

Non-Christian

2.4%

Baptist

2.0%

Mainline Protestant

1.1%

Methodist

0.5%

Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 63.2% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Spanning from the state capital through the San Joaquin Valley, this media market blends Sacramento's government-worker electorate with Stockton and Modesto's majority-minority, working-class communities, producing notably mixed turnout patterns across its counties.

The market's recent history is a story of close margins. The Democratic margin reached fifty-one points in 1912; the Republican margin reached thirty-five points in 1924. Most other elections have been decided by single-digit points.

Its demographics — a population of 4,701,802, a 48% non-Hispanic-white share, a median household income of $93,353 — situate the market close to national averages on several dimensions.

Cite this page

All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.

Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto, California — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/dma/862/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.

License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto, California vote in 2024?

In 2024, Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto, California voted Democratic by 5.7 points (D+6), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 1,978,274 votes cast, 1,013,111 went Democratic and 900,459 went Republican.

What is Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto, California's political archetype?

Akashic classifies Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto, California as a "Tossup" market based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the market has voted Democratic 21 times, Republican 16 times, and other 1 times.

When did Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto, California last vote Republican?

The most recent presidential election in which Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto, California voted Republican was 2004.

How many people live in Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto, California?

Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto, California has a population of 4,701,802 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto, California?

Median household income in Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto, California is $93,353 — above the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.

What is the political history of Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto, California?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto, California from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 21 went Democratic and 16 went Republican. The market's archetype — "Tossup" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.

Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto delivered D+6 in 2024 — close enough to flip again next time.

Key facts

Demographics

Frequently asked questions