Flint-Saginaw-Bay City, Michigan: Populist market. In 2024, voted R+11%. Republican peak: R+62 in 1924.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+11MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- PopulistAkashic typology
- Population
- 1,123,7712024 5-year
- Median household income
- $62,4122024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 80.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 10.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 5.1%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+28 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+62 in 1924MIT Election Lab
Constituent county margins for Flint-Saginaw-Bay City, MIOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
R+60D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 277,075 | 346,720 | 633,281 | ||
| R | 283,582 | 327,226 | 620,410 | ||
| R | 239,601 | 279,306 | 550,599 | ||
| D | 304,936 | 244,471 | 557,370 | ||
| D | 347,989 | 240,632 | 598,881 | ||
| D | 311,668 | 270,503 | 587,430 | ||
| D | 285,557 | 228,350 | 526,331 | ||
| D | 264,818 | 167,393 | 488,279 | ||
| D | 248,187 | 166,306 | 542,056 | ||
| D | 249,998 | 228,989 | 481,983 | ||
| R | 204,190 | 281,047 | 487,848 | ||
| R | 218,800 | 245,074 | 506,629 | ||
| R | 216,563 | 239,339 | 462,115 | ||
| R | 174,155 | 245,528 | 428,180 | ||
| R | 169,113 | 192,577 | 407,140 | ||
| D | 245,127 | 136,639 | 382,364 | ||
| R | 170,510 | 217,055 | 388,548 | ||
| R | 134,188 | 224,574 | 359,574 | ||
| R | 117,820 | 198,203 | 318,166 | ||
| R | 99,135 | 127,838 | 232,628 | ||
| R | 112,609 | 145,128 | 259,616 | ||
| R | 115,191 | 142,800 | 259,147 | ||
| D | 120,324 | 82,549 | 218,144 | ||
| D | 113,901 | 93,285 | 212,636 | ||
| R | 46,418 | 127,976 | 175,190 | ||
| R | 22,572 | 114,951 | 149,448 | ||
| R | 30,836 | 98,934 | 133,327 | ||
| R | 40,890 | 50,681 | 94,695 | ||
| O | 21,703 | 24,013 | 84,840 | ||
| R | 26,982 | 49,619 | 81,149 | ||
| R | 21,392 | 54,536 | 80,454 | ||
| R | 33,610 | 48,316 | 85,046 | ||
| R | 41,627 | 43,313 | 86,860 | ||
| R | 31,096 | 33,426 | 72,384 | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
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Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
22.6%
English
11.8%
Irish
11.1%
Polish
7.3%
American
4.6%
French
3.9%
Italian
2.4%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 41.9 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$62,412
Flint-Saginaw-Bay City ranks near the middle of US counties.
Flint-Saginaw-Bay City$62,412
Michigan$72,875
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
15.6%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1820.8%
Working age (18–64)14.6%
Seniors (65+)10.5%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
96.3%
speak English only
Spanish1.5%
Other Indo-European1.2%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.6%
Other languages0.5%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 60.7% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
This mid-Michigan media market anchors Genesee, Saginaw, and Bay counties, where decades of auto-industry contraction have reshaped an electorate that swung between parties by single digits in recent statewide cycles.
The Democratic margin in Flint-Saginaw-Bay City peaked at twenty-eight points in 1964. By 2016 the market had flipped, voting Republican for the first time in many years. The 2024 margin was eleven points, the most Republican-leaning result in the market's modern history.
The economic context is the key. The median household income of $62,412 sits well below state and national norms, and 16% of residents live below the federal poverty line. The shift here is part of a broader realignment of working-class places across the country.
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Flint-Saginaw-Bay City, Michigan — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/dma/513/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did Flint-Saginaw-Bay City, Michigan vote in 2024?
In 2024, Flint-Saginaw-Bay City, Michigan voted Republican by 11.0 points (R+11), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 633,281 votes cast, 277,075 went Democratic and 346,720 went Republican.
What is Flint-Saginaw-Bay City, Michigan's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Flint-Saginaw-Bay City, Michigan as a "Populist" market based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the market has voted Democratic 10 times, Republican 23 times, and other 1 times.
When did Flint-Saginaw-Bay City, Michigan last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Flint-Saginaw-Bay City, Michigan voted Democratic was 2012.
How many people live in Flint-Saginaw-Bay City, Michigan?
Flint-Saginaw-Bay City, Michigan has a population of 1,123,771 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Flint-Saginaw-Bay City, Michigan?
Median household income in Flint-Saginaw-Bay City, Michigan is $62,412 — below the national median of $80,734. The Michigan state median is $72,875.
What is the political history of Flint-Saginaw-Bay City, Michigan?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Flint-Saginaw-Bay City, Michigan from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 10 went Democratic and 23 went Republican. The market's archetype — "Populist" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.