Fresno-Visalia, California: Bellwether market. In 2024, voted R+11%. Democratic peak: D+50 in 1936.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+11MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- BellwetherAkashic typology
- Population
- 2,116,9392024 5-year
- Median household income
- $72,2592024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 36.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 3.5%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 58.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+50 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+32 in 1924MIT Election Lab
Constituent county margins for Fresno-Visalia, CAOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
R+60D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 285,161 | 354,776 | 656,629 | ||
| D | 354,076 | 340,840 | 710,668 | ||
| D | 260,011 | 257,708 | 558,985 | ||
| R | 236,381 | 254,690 | 503,587 | ||
| R | 251,170 | 268,075 | 530,287 | ||
| R | 187,704 | 291,249 | 483,901 | ||
| R | 176,298 | 238,901 | 430,875 | ||
| R | 174,331 | 198,786 | 405,603 | ||
| R | 167,607 | 174,321 | 421,181 | ||
| R | 166,233 | 192,584 | 363,626 | ||
| R | 150,109 | 212,127 | 365,963 | ||
| R | 123,266 | 166,087 | 313,637 | ||
| R | 134,925 | 136,358 | 277,306 | ||
| R | 123,712 | 153,302 | 286,783 | ||
| D | 118,548 | 116,331 | 257,335 | ||
| D | 166,948 | 89,611 | 256,799 | ||
| D | 131,499 | 113,835 | 246,472 | ||
| D | 120,617 | 102,103 | 223,291 | ||
| R | 102,110 | 108,902 | 212,718 | ||
| D | 90,520 | 65,597 | 161,951 | ||
| D | 78,252 | 52,489 | 131,614 | ||
| D | 95,487 | 50,193 | 147,331 | ||
| D | 84,638 | 27,633 | 113,910 | ||
| D | 65,395 | 26,932 | 96,754 | ||
| R | 31,603 | 43,345 | 75,928 | ||
| R | 10,472 | 33,366 | 70,987 | ||
| R | 19,056 | 32,283 | 55,604 | ||
| D | 29,764 | 24,679 | 59,776 | ||
| O | 18,972 | 0 | 42,608 | ||
| R | 10,085 | 12,379 | 25,281 | ||
| R | 7,012 | 10,477 | 19,865 | ||
| D | 9,243 | 8,452 | 18,534 | ||
| D | 10,010 | 6,437 | 16,846 | ||
| D | 7,587 | 3,173 | 17,345 | ||
| D | 7,095 | 6,035 | 13,688 | ||
| D | 4,966 | 3,865 | 9,183 | ||
| D | 3,773 | 2,478 | 6,409 | ||
| D | 3,696 | 2,246 | 5,942 |
Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
5.8%
English
4.6%
Irish
4.4%
Italian
2.1%
American
1.7%
French
0.8%
Scottish
0.8%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 33.1 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$72,259
Fresno-Visalia ranks near the middle of US counties.
Fresno-Visalia$72,259
California$99,122
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
18.2%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1824.8%
Working age (18–64)15.7%
Seniors (65+)14.3%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
53.8%
speak English only
Spanish38.5%
Asian & Pacific Islander4.0%
Other Indo-European2.9%
Other languages0.7%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 54.3% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Anchored by the San Joaquin Valley's agricultural economy, this media market blends a majority-Hispanic working-class base with conservative rural precincts, producing competitive legislative margins that frequently diverge from statewide trends.
The Democratic margin in Fresno-Visalia has rarely exceeded fifty points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded thirty-two points. 2024 delivered the market to the Republican candidate by eleven points.
Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most markets. A 36% non-Hispanic-white share, a 18% poverty rate, and a median household income of $72,259 — all within the broad national range.
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Fresno-Visalia, California — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/dma/866/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did Fresno-Visalia, California vote in 2024?
In 2024, Fresno-Visalia, California voted Republican by 10.6 points (R+11), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 656,629 votes cast, 285,161 went Democratic and 354,776 went Republican.
What is Fresno-Visalia, California's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Fresno-Visalia, California as a "Bellwether" market based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the market has voted Democratic 19 times, Republican 18 times, and other 1 times.
When did Fresno-Visalia, California last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Fresno-Visalia, California voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Fresno-Visalia, California?
Fresno-Visalia, California has a population of 2,116,939 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Fresno-Visalia, California?
Median household income in Fresno-Visalia, California is $72,259 — below the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of Fresno-Visalia, California?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Fresno-Visalia, California from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 19 went Democratic and 18 went Republican. The market's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.